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HARL Harland & Wolff Group Holdings Plc

0.00 (0.0%)
Last Updated: 08:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Harland & Wolff Group Holdings Plc LSE:HARL London Ordinary Share GB00BLPJ1272 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 12.00 144,245 08:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
11.50 12.50 12.00 12.00 12.00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Natural Gas Transmis & Distr 27.97M -70.36M -0.4319 -0.28 19.55M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
13:53:57 O 365 12.045 GBX

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Posted at 30/11/2023 09:44 by loglorry1
The point of the Mello chat and all the other financial PR is to keep the bulls buying and the share price from going lower. I suspect we'll see a pathetic small raise from HARL to keep the lights on soon enough. The financing he is talking of is clearly nowhere near completing so they'll have to try to raise a few million to keep going a bit longer. If they do its very negative.

They have about 2 weeks to raise money before markets shut down for the holidays.
Posted at 27/11/2023 15:39 by supearich
Never mind Jak 'talking to the Business' at Mello.
Surely JK should be challenging HARL at Mello infront of everybody with his views that;

- the Business is utterly insolvent
- the Business only operates at a perpetual loss
- the Business is surely going into Administration very soon

and in doing so, HARL will have to respond to each point very publicly and one way or another a definitive line will surely be drawn under the whole shebang.

Come on JK, strike forth at the heart of the Business, show us what you're really made of, drive that share price down by challenging HARL in public.
Posted at 26/10/2023 13:02 by xenor
The amount Loglorry posts on this board he is clearly getting more and more desperate as the share price creeps up.I noticed on IG that shorts were still increasing when the share price was recently hovering around 11p. I suspect he is underwater, got roped into it by Share Prophets and now trapped.The finance deal when it comes is going to be catastrophic for some.
Posted at 24/10/2023 08:02 by ramlamb
wiltowin 08.31 - 'Put your money in a savings account for your poultry returns' I am saving for a Christmas turkey is that my poultry return?

Considering HARL share price has plummeted 26% this year it is better to have a PALTRY return than none at all.
Posted at 23/10/2023 23:26 by jaknife

"Total contracted revenue for the next seven years sits at £1 billion in total, up £100 million since March."

That revenue is going to be earned over that 7 years so basically what you're highlighting is that there's expected revenue of about £143m a year for 7 years.

People have been suggesting a gross margin of 20% on that revenue so (notwithstanding that historically the company has never achieved anywhere close to a 20% gross margin) let's run with that and assume a gross profit of £28.6m (20% of £143m).

From that you need to deduct administration costs. If you look at the last results:

admin costs last year were £53.4m and the year before that they were £24.7m.

let's make a miraculous assumption and assume that they can get the admin costs back down to £25m as they were in 2021. That leaves a profit of £3m.

Then you need to factor in the finance costs (interest). Last year they were £12.3m and HARL is proposing to double its debt so we need to pencil in something like £25m per annum. That leaves forecast losses of £22m a year.

Can you see the problem yet?

Wise investors remember the phrase: revenue is vanity, profit is sanity but cash is king.

HARL may have lots of revenue on its way but historically it's had pathetic margins. Even if heroic assumptions are made about margins then the admin costs and interest are going to wipe out the gross profits and leave HARL loss-making. You could fiddle with the numbers and try to make some even more heroic assumptions but, more importantly, where are the profits going to come from that are needed to repay the debt?

This is as simple as I can break it down for you. The business cannot support $200m of debt and, if we're realistic, it can't actually support the existing $100m of debt either. That's why a massive equity fund raise is needed and, why the existing debt needs converting to equity. And when that happens it's going to happen at a huge discount to the current share price such that existing shareholders are going to essentially be wiped out.

That's why HARL is a massive sell.

Posted at 09/10/2023 06:25 by linesal2
Harland & Wolff Group Holdings PLC Maritime Operations Commencement & Isles of Scilly
09/10/2023 7:00am
RNS Non-Regulatory


Harland & Wolff Group Holdings PLC

09 October 2023


9 October 2023

Harland & Wolff Group Holdings plc

("Harland & Wolff" or the "Company")

Maritime Operations Commencement & Isles of Scilly

Harland & Wolff Group Holdings plc (AIM: HARL), the UK quoted company focused on strategic infrastructure projects and physical asset lifecycle management, provides an update on its proposed strategy regarding the ferry build and operate programme to service the Isles of Scilly, as well as an update on its maritime operations.

Update on Maritime Operations

As part of the Group's strategy, the Company aims to establish its own marine operations business when it has a critical mass of maritime operation activity. To date, it has been contracting with various organisations to assist with its docking and undocking operations, as well as towing vessels and barges between its yards and for the transportation of materials between its sites. As the Company progresses towards cutting first steel on the FSS Programme in 2025, the demand for such marine operations will only increase as the Company commences moving blocks and major component parts around the different sites.

The Directors believe that sub-contracting of marine operations beyond a certain level is inefficient from not only a physical efficiency perspective but also a financial one. The Company is now in the position where significant savings can be made by commencing its own marine operations division. To this end, and as a matter of priority, a tug has been identified to acquire. This tug will have a bollard pull of around seventy-five tonnes and will be utilised internally by the Company in addition to being operated on the spot market when internal demand is low. The spot market for tug hire is highly lucrative, given that demand for tugs far exceeds their supply. The Company expects this tug to be in operation by the end of 2023. For the avoidance of doubt, this tug is in addition to the two green tugs that were announced earlier this year.

Isles of Scilly - Proposed Ferry Build & Operate Programme

The Directors believe that the Isles of Scilly to Penzance route is significantly underserved by its current operation. The route typically sees a surge of demand in the summer from tourists wishing to take day trips to the island. Furthermore, the ability to move freight across the route is limited by current capacity. Noting also the limited accommodation on the islands, the directors believe that fast transit on and off the islands is essential. Further, the long-term ability to move freight across this route is limited by current capacity. By replacing old for new vessels on a broadly "like for like" basis, the same problems relating to the lack of connectivity and poor freight service will continue to persist.

Given the existing state of operations and proposed new plans, both of which are inadequate for the islands' needs, its tourism sector and movement of freight, the Company has identified an opportunity to provide necessary improvements within the Isles of Scilly ferry market through the build and operation of two ferries on the Penzance to Scilly ferry route as well as one inter-island vessel. The Company has been considering the opportunity to build and operate ferries its own right, having spent three years working on and developing its own specific design and costing model for these vessels. The Company sees a significant opportunity to provide upgraded services on this route to all islanders and tourists.

Future plans that are currently being proposed to service this route indicate that the new vessels will be built outside the UK and will not utilise any levelling up funding that is available. Instead, commercial debt will be taken with the potential for a steep fare increase to service and repay this loan. Instead, the Company sees an opportunity to utilise levelling up funding of approximately GBP48m that is available to build and operate ferries on this route and, accordingly, a detailed analysis of the market has been undertaken including on-island initial consultations, the outcome of which demonstrates that there is a place in the market for a second operator.

The route is currently unregulated and is available for anyone to operate, although a monopoly continues to exist. The Company has had initial discussions with several ports including St Mary's and has received positive feedback that fair and equal access will be provided to any operators wishing to dock in the ports.

Fast Ferry

Having conducted detailed analysis on the met ocean data and other information, the Company proposes to introduce a new fast ferry service between either Penzance or Newlyn to cover the summer season between May and September, commencing in 2024. This route is around thirty-eight nautical miles depending on the departure port. The Company currently has four vessels that are under evaluation with speeds of up to forty knots depending on weather conditions. The Company's offering will be to undertake three round trips per day providing the day trip market with the ability to spend the entire day on the islands rather than struggling with a window of only a few hours that currently exists. The vessel of choice would be capable of taking at least 250 passengers. The Company believes that it could provide this improved service at a cheaper price than what is currently charged, with the advantage of a significantly shorter journey time and greater timetable optionality.

Freight Service

The Directors believe that the current freight service is inadequate as it does not deliver year-round capacity into St Mary's or the outer islands in a cost effective or time efficient manner. The Company proposes to collaborate with local south-west organisations to offer an end-to-end freight service, with a view to offering a superior service to that which is currently available. This proposal would involve the introduction of additional vessels of different sizes and specifications to ensure that a minimum capacity of 550 tonnes of cargo per week is made available with the ability to upscale this should demand increase. Should the demand be less than expected, vessels could be deployed on the spot market on other routes given that they have the ability to be general purpose commercial cargo and work vessels. In line with this strategy, the Company had entered into Heads of Terms (HoT) with Kraken Marine Services Limited ("KMS" or the "Seller") for the acquisition of the entire business including the assets of the Seller. Subject to completion of this acquisition, KMS' assets will be used immediately to move component parts, steel and equipment between the yards. Additionally, the Company will help grow the existing freight and marine business of the Seller with external contracts across the south-west region and the Isles of Scilly. Further details will be made available upon completion of the acquisition.

New Vessels and Levelling up Funding (LUF)

Given the nature of the route, the Company does not believe that it is financially viable to operate the type of new build vessels currently envisaged without utilising levelling up funding or increasing fares substantially. Further the Company believes that the foreign built vessels being proposed are not sustainable because the volumes in the market will not be available for those size of vessels. The Company believes that given the seasonal nature of this route on the one hand, and the stable demand of the islands on the other, a responsible service provider should be offering optionality and dynamic operations depending on the time of the year. Future plans by other parties competing this route have severe deficiencies in this respect.

Having undertaken discussions with certain stakeholders, the Directors firmly believe that levelling up funding could be made available to the Company in connection with its proposals. Through receipt of levelling up funding, the Company would not own the vessels; rather it would be responsible for managing them on behalf of a Special Purpose Vehicle. For the avoidance of doubt, the Company would need to tender for the operation and management of these vessels and there is no guarantee that the Company will be awarded this piece of work and be involved within this element of the overall project. The Company remains in competition with others for the award of this work and is currently working on its submission to the local council.

In summary, from an operational perspective, the Company's plans will be significantly different from the future replacement programme that is currently being currently proposed. It will include multiple sailings per day on smaller vessels carrying both freight and passengers. Vessels will depart everyday both from the mainland and St Mary's during peak periods. In addition, the vessels will not only be embedded with current technologies but will also have the optionality to upgrade to new technologies in the future. These vessels will be future proofed from a design perspective to be able to adapt to any future shoreside infrastructure upgrades.

Should the company be successful in its manufacturing bid, these vessels will be built and maintained in the UK, growing the UK economy and facilitating the development of the country's next generation of ship builders.

Air link to the islands

For the avoidance of doubt, this is not a business that the Company has any desire to be involved in. The Company is aware that other operators have expressed interest and wish to understand the Company's future plans with a view to building synergies between the sea and air routes. The Company will enter into discussions about future partnership programmes with air route operators as soon as it as more certainty on its bid for the ferry replacement programme.

John Wood, Group Chief Executive Officer, Harland & Wolff commented:

"As part of our continued growth and the route to the GBP500m turnover strategy, we are excited about launching our marine operations to reduce internal costs and to provide a better service at an affordable cost externally. Whilst there is no guarantee that we will win the bid to build and operate the new vessels, we are excited about the revenue generating capacity of the fast ferry and freight services offering. The team that we already have in the Company has extensive knowledge of marine operations and this is a natural extension of our business. We will provide further updates on ownership and chartering details in due course as the project develops."
Posted at 14/9/2023 12:42 by jaknife

”so your argument essentially boils down to:

Company has X debt.
Company is insolvent (scary word) to X.

From what you’ve written I don’t think that you understand the balance sheet as the two “X”s that you highlight are not the same. Search for “CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION” in the interims:

and note the following:

1. “Loans and borrowings” total (98,303,054)

£3m of this number is capitalised leases (see note 8) and so the total traditional debt is £95.3m. Note specifically that this debt is all shown as “current”, ie it appears under “Current liabilities” rather than “Non-current liabilities”, this means that it is due for repayment in the following 12 months. The debt was also shown as current in the annual report suggesting that it’s actually due to be repaid before the end of 2023.

2. “Total equity” (79,872,881)

The total equity is a negative number and this is the source of my comment: “The balance sheet is insolvent to the tune of £80m”. In simple terms the total of HARL’s liabilities is greater than its assets by £80m. In classic accounting this makes them insolvent on a balance sheet basis, it implies that if HARL were to be liquidated then the banks would only collect about £15m on their £95m of debt – shareholders would get nothing but at least you are protected from having to pony up the £80m deficit (about 46p a share) because you benefit from limited liability.

You're simply preying on the idea that all debt is bad and must be paid immediately. Something a lot of PIs have been conditioned to believe over the past year or so by people like yourself.

As noted above the debt is “current” indicating that it has to be repaid by 31 Dec 2023. This is a standard accounting principle but you can find this confirmed in the annual accounts:

“Borrowings are classified as current liabilities unless the group has an unconditional right to defer settlement of the liability for at least 12 months after the reporting date.”

See page 67:

Hence there is a detail that the directors have glossed over somewhere because they note in the accounts that the Riverstone facility “matures” on 31 Dec 2024 but they don’t explain why it is that it’s accounted for as if it’s due to be repaid before 31 Dec 2023.

”Debt is not bad, if it can be managed sensibly. It helps companies grow. The current debt package with Riverstone is awful but that's why we're seeking a new finance arrangement. From the RNS in late June this will be a 5 year deal with an interest rate in single digits. This debt will be a lot easier to manage.

I'm not blind to the risk that exists here prior to the deal being signed, I don't like the risk either. But I'm confident the deal will be signed.”

Debt is bad when it can’t be repaid. It would be impossible for HARL to repay the Riverstone facility and hence HARL is dependent upon another bank to step in and lend enough money such that Riverstone can then be repaid and so that HARL has enough cash to carry on trading (to cover the expected losses of £38.5m in the 18 months from 1 July 2023 to 31 Dec 2024).

I’ve set out above in great detail why no sane bank will lend to HARL. You can take me at my word (personally I don’t understand why it’s not plainly obvious) or you can believe that I’m lying, regardless we will find the answer in time. I am accustomed to waiting.

”The early November RNS you refer to with a 4-6 week closure period is irrelevant. That was stated before we won the FSS contract and it was stated afterwards that the company was no longer pursuing that specific finance arrangement and had instead initiated a deal with a larger scope for more money and with the involvement of UKEF. Extra time for this was understandable, but I certainly agree it has dragged on far too long now.”

The FSS contract is for £750m of revenue, which will be spread over 7 years. On the other hand HARL’s house broker forecasts that the balance sheet will be insolvent to the tune of just under £120m on 31 Dec 2024. Have you run a cash flow analysis to work out what net cash might be generated over the seven years of the FSS contract and thus when the £120m hole in the balance sheet might be repaired? Can you not see what is obviously implied by these numbers?

HARL are aiming for “a blended gross margin of 24%-27%” (page 12 of accounts). If they achieved that on the FSS contract then that would be a gross profit of about £187.5m (@25% GM) spread over seven years. But that’s gross profit! After admin expenses the net profit will be materially less. It should be plainly obvious that the FSS contract is not going to be enough to get HARL out of the hole that it’s in!

It does not take that long to arrange a debt facility. HARL announced the Execution of the deal on 18 Jan:

That was 34 weeks ago. Why wasn’t a new debt facility announced six weeks later?

Have you read my post above explaining why there is no reasonable chance that UKEF would get involved? At a basic level surely you can see that the FSS contract is a domestic one and hence won’t qualify for “Export” finance?

”What do you plan to do with your short when we sign the finance deal? Will you close it and accept that you got this wrong or will you find something else to deramp over?”

HARL’s accounts are quite clear that they (a) need to raise fresh equity, and (b) they are already in discussions to raise fresh equity. Do you think that your directors were lying when they wrote these words:

“The Company is in advanced discussions with potential funders (both debt and equity) to raise additional funds.” (page 62 of accounts)

I expect such a placing (if they can even organise such a placing) to take place at a significant discount.

My understanding of the word “deramp” is to post false information to try to drive the price down. The last company that I was accused of “deramping” was Cineworld. I’ve deliberately taken time to post links and evidence to support my comments above. If you think that any of them are factually incorrect then let me know and I will happily clarify.

Posted at 10/9/2023 16:12 by jaknife
I'm just a bear of little brain, but I can't for one second believe that HARL have the slightest chance of getting UKEF to guarantee a £200m loan.

1. Firstly, in all my time in investment banking (23 years) the DTI (DBT as they are now) were always crystal clear that their role was to support commercial transactions. There is nothing "commercial" about lending money to HARL, as HARL is an outright charity case.

HARL made a £31.5m loss in H1 and now has a balance sheet with an £80m black-hole at its centre. Its house broker now forecasts that they'll make a further loss of £14.5m in H2 (full-year loss of £46.0m) and a total loss in 2024 of £24m. So the house broker is telling you that the gaping black hole will have increased to £118.5m by the end of 2024.

No sane bank lends to a company that is technically insolvent to the tune of £80m now and is forecast to be even more insolvent 16 months from now. And on that basis UKEF will NOT get involved because they only support commercial transactions!

Take a read of their most recent annual report:

"A key principle of our pricing is to maintain a level playing field. We therefore operate within the OECD Arrangement (a framework for the orderly use of officially supported export credits), where it applies. This requires all ECAs to charge risk-based premiums sufficient to cover their long-term operating costs and credit losses. This mirrors the WTO Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures, which classifies export credit guarantee programmes that do not cover their long-term operating costs and losses as “prohibited subsidies”."


[remove line break in above URL]

Have a read of the accounts and see that UKEF is a business that makes a profit - it has always been run as a commercial operation! And note that UKEF DO NOT make equity investments. Have a look at the balance sheet, there are none there!

Lending money to HARL is not a commercial proposition and hence UKEF will NOT lend to/guarantee a loan to HARL.

2. But there's a more fundamental reason why UKEF are NOT going to lend or guarantee a loan to HARL and the clue is pretty obvious as it's in their title - UK Export Finance!

HARL's big contract is with the UK Government. They are part of a consortium to deliver three state-of-the-art ships to the Royal Navy. That's the "UK" Royal Navy.

There is no "exporting" in this contract and it therefore naturally follows that there's no export that UKEF needs to get involved with. HARL has no material other contracts (export based or not) that might support such a loan.


Someone on HARL's board is going to great extremes to keep the dream alive but it's ten months since HARL claimed that they were in negotiations for a new loan:

when they specifically said (9 Nov 2022):

"Financial close is expected within four to six weeks. The Company will make further announcements at financial close"

43 weeks later and there's still nothing! Right there you have the evidence that points to either (a) an over-optimistic board that are inflating investor expectations beyond a reasonable level, or (b) an incompetent board that haven't got a clue. Neither is an investable proposition!

Posted at 03/9/2023 14:09 by ramlamb
chrisatrdg - Unsure about the share price increasing, HARL are in need of cash at the moment,IM will provide some respite if sold but that will be months down the line, more likely a placing is on the way.
Let's be honest the share price has gone backwards after the FSS was announced & the company debt spiralling out of control, there is nothing to be positive about here.

Xenor - It is a good share for short term trading JW often helps out with his helpful RNS's that pump the share price. He has his uses.
Posted at 02/9/2023 15:17 by jaknife
Read the words again:

"In order to bring down the cost of capital, we expect to refinance Riverstone out of the Company in 2023. As part of the refinancing process, we are engaged with UK Export Finance (UKEF) and other high street lenders with a view to achieving two objectives; bringing down the overall cost of capital and further upsizing our facility to GBP200 million. As part of this process, we were subject to a highly detailed five-month due diligence process conducted by Grant Thornton on behalf of UK Export Finance. The Independent Business Review Report (IBR) was formally published by Grant Thornton at the end of May and validated our strategy of operating in five markets and six services as well as confirming the substantial addressable markets and weighted pipeline that we have been building since 2020. The report also highlights criticality of human and capital resources to take this business to a GBP500 million p.a. company."

1. Where does it say that "UK Export Finance (UKEF) and other high street lenders" have actually agreed to refinance the debt? It doesn't!

The proposed refinance was announced on 9 November last year. Given that HARL have been working on this for such a long period of time then it should be plainly obvious that there are complications. That's because it's not as straight forward as suggested. If you apply some common sense then what bank do you think would happily lend to a company with a balance sheet that is technically insolvent to the tune of £50m and that is forecast to make losses for this year and next?

2. Where does it actually say that HARL have *passed* the due diligence process? Again, it doesn't! Could you imagine passing due diligence when you have a track record of losses and are forecast to continue making losses for this year and next?

3. Where does it say that HARL currently have the necessary "human and capital resources to take this business to a GBP500 million p.a. company"? Yet again, it doesn't say that! It just sets out what HARL need *IF* that's what they want to do!

I'm afraid that HARL shareholders are being fobbed off with weak platitudes by the directors. For normal companies getting bank debt is a simple process of either:

A. These physical assets could be sold tomorrow for X, would you lend 50% of X based on their value? Because if we default you can simply take the assets, sell them and get your money back. This is asset finance. Have a look at HARL's accounts though and you won't find any significant assets and, what's more, there are no assets that could be materially revalued upwards.

B. Cash flow finance - we're a stable business generating EBITDA of Y every year of which a good chunk of that converts to cash. Would you please lend us 2xEBITDA on the basis that we generate stable cash flows to service the debt and, in a worst case scenario, we should be able to pay back the debt in full in two years if we run the business for cash.

HARL is not in a position to get either form of debt and that's because its balance sheet has materially deteriorated. It's gone from net assets of +£21.2m to negative net assets of -£48.4m in just one year!!!

But don't take my word for it, just read the accounts where you will find the words of the directors that explicitly state:

"The Company is in advanced discussions with potential funders (both debt and equity) to raise additional funds."

A placing is coming and it needs to be a really significant one because HARL lost £70.4m last year and that's a significant deterioration in the equity cushion.

However, HARL's problem is that it's so deep in the hole that it has no real hope of ever being able to repay the existing $100m of debt. What that means is that any funds raised from any placing would need to be used to pay off the debt first. And that's a really unattractive proposition from an equity perspective. Think of it like this:

Your dream house is for sale, it's worth £1m and it needs £200k of work. But the vendor owes £1.5m to the bank and you can only buy the house if you take over responsibility for the £1.5m mortgage. Why would you do that deal? You wouldn't! You should just tell the bank to get lost and offer them, say £750k, to buy the debt off of them!


I appreciate that I'm the harbinger of doom but someone round here has to be realistic. HARL has no hope of repaying the existing debt and no sane bank is going to lend further funds to HARL in its current situation. There are very few options available and, at this point in time, the most likely one seems to be a debt for equity swap where the existing debt provider converts a large proportion of their debt into equity.

Such a D4E might see $70m of debt converted to equity (ie most but not all) with another £20 to £30m of fresh equity raised. But you need to be realistic, when a debt provider converts debt to equity then they do that at the *lowest price possible* - think 1p a share!

HARL's directors have painted an optimistic picture of its future even though the house broker is forecasting losses for this year and next and the current balance sheet is in a hopeless state. Your directors have explicitly told you that they (a) they need to raise fresh equity, AND (b) they are in advanced discussions to raise that equity. Placings always take place at a discount, that's why selling now and buying back later is such an easy and obvious win!

Harland & Wolff share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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