Wheat Leads Tentative Market Higher
24 June 2019 - 8:50PM
Dow Jones News
By Kirk Maltais
-- Wheat for September delivery rose 2.2% to $5.42 1/2 a bushel
on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, as hot weather in Europe
stands to hurt crop competing against U.S. wheat.
-- Corn for July delivery rose 1% to $4.46 3/4 a bushel.
-- Soybeans for July delivery rose 0.7% to $9.09 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Busy Week: Traders were busy positioning themselves Monday ahead
of the crop conditions/progress report, Friday's crop acreage
report, and the G20 Summit in Japan this week, where President
Trump and Chinese President Xi planned to meet to restart trade
deal negotiations. Although the market is hopeful for some
resolution to come out of the meeting, few traders believe that
will be the case.
In the meantime, the USDA report will likely inform grain
futures movement.
Heat Wave: The hot and dry weather hitting Europe is expected to
impact eastern European and Black Sea wheat crops, good news for
U.S. wheat growers who have had difficulty competing with other
global sources. Paris expects temperatures as hot as 100 degrees
Fahrenheit on Wednesday and Thursday, according to AccuWeather.
The unseasonable warmness is expected to stretch into the major
wheat-growing areas, impacting the health of those crops.
INSIGHT
Weak Statistics: Although grains traders are keenly watching
Friday's planted acreage estimate from the USDA, what will be
reported may not be as helpful for traders making decisions as some
people might believe.
"This report is based on farmer's planting intentions on June
1st," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage. "As we
all know, the intentions on June 1st were not anything like what
actually happened in June, so these USDA numbers will need to be
taken with a grain of salt." Exceedingly wet conditions put a
deeper cut on crops planted in June.
Inspections on Par: Inspections of grains for export met trader
forecasts this week, although generally staying on the low end of
predicted ranges.
Wheat inspections totaled 406,386 metric tons, corn totaled
617,740 tons and soybeans totaled 682,155 tons.
The most notable statistic reported by the USDA Monday is that
over 500,000 tons of soybeans destined for China were inspected, a
strong figure considering the tariffs levied on exports by both
nations.
Corn-Cattle Connection: Corn futures are expected to have a
robust week. For cattle, this is generally considered bearish as a
good week for corn means higher feed costs for livestock.
However, this may only be a short-term trend, Steiner Consulting
Group said.
"For cattle there are more considerations," said Steiner,
explaining feedlots tend to adapt to higher feed costs by waiting
for heavier and more mature animals to put on feed. The delay may
allow cattle to be more insulated from corn price movement, also
limiting the amount of beef hitting the market.
AHEAD
-- General Mills Inc. is scheduled to release its latest
quarterly earnings report before the stock market opens
Wednesday.
-- The EIA is due to release its weekly update on ethanol
production and inventories at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.
-- Conagra Brands is scheduled to release its latest quarterly
earnings report before the market opens Thursday.
-- The USDA is due to release its latest weekly export sales
numbers at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2019 15:35 ET (19:35 GMT)
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