BEIJING, July 31,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- A news report
from chinadaily.com.cn:
The development experiences of different countries at different
times show that the relationship between population development and
socioeconomic development can be mutually reinforcing and mutually
constraining. Since the launch of reform and opening-up in 1978,
China has benefited from a favorable demographic structure
characterized by an increasing workforce, declining dependency
ratios, and rising education levels of young workers, which
contributed to China's rapid economic growth.
However, population dividends cannot be permanent growth
factors. Since traditional growth drivers weaken at higher
development stages, economic growth is bound to decline. The
experiences of advanced economies prove this fact: economies
transitioning from upper-middle-income to high-income status often
experience growth slowdowns when their per capita GDP reaches about
$13,000. From 2009 to 2019,
upper-middle-income economies with late-stage population dividends
saw, on average, 5.4 percent GDP growth, while high-income
economies with post-population dividends averaged only 2.1 percent.
However, economies with appropriate policy responses can extend the
population dividends and achieve smoother growth decline.
China's demographic transition, characterized by people getting
old before becoming rich, creates challenges and opportunities.
Adapting to the new demographic normal while transforming
development modes and fostering new growth drivers still offers
China development opportunities. By optimizing and upgrading the
industrial structure, intensifying urbanization, and vitalizing
rural areas, China can ensure long-term economic growth within a
reasonable range.
Besides, to realize Chinese modernization, the country has to
first address the new demographic challenges and achieve
high-quality population development. Based on China's modernization
goals and demographic challenges, the essence and significance of
high-quality population development can be summarized as
follows:
Moderate fertility levels and stable population size: China's
total fertility rate has declined to about 1, far below the world
average of 2.3. If this low fertility rate persists or declines
further, it will accelerate population decline and aging. Although
a decline in the fertility rate is linked to socioeconomic
development, China's strict family planning policy in the past,
too, contributed to the suppressed fertility levels. So, improving
basic public services and reducing the costs of childbirth,
childcare, and children's education can help reverse the fertility
rate to a more sustainable level.
Optimized regional population distribution and dynamic balance:
Regional population disparities reflect the difference in the
development levels of different regions. Coastal areas, with low
fertility rates but strong economic growth, attract more workforce,
resulting in net population inflows. Conversely, some central and
western provinces with higher fertility growth rates but relatively
low economic growth rates see the exodus of the workforce, while
the northeastern region faces low birth rates and high labor
outflows. Reversing these trends, even slightly, requires
coordinated economic and population policies.
Modern human resources for technological advancement: Beyond the
abundant workforce, favorable demographic conditions include
continuous entry of better-educated young workers into the labor
market and rising human capital. The decline in population growth
and rapid increase in the aging population create hurdles for human
capital accumulation due to slower improvement in labor quality,
older workers with relatively low education levels struggling to
adapt to the industrial and technological changes, and structural
employment difficulties, complicated further by the rapid
development of artificial intelligence technology.
Hence, improving both the quantity and quality of labor is
crucial to achieving high-quality population development.
Improving people's living standards for common prosperity:
High-quality population development will promote Chinese
modernization by aligning the goals and means of modernization.
Maximizing population and talent dividends is essential to ensure
sustained economic growth. Measures promoting a family-friendly
society are conducive to improving basic public services, creating
high-quality jobs, boosting human capital and fostering social
mobility and individual development.
Moreover, adapting to new demographic trends requires a better
understanding of the new economic situation and the need to take
targeted policy measures.
Enhancing fertility rates across life cycles: UN surveys show
the desired fertility rate globally is the replacement level
fertility of 2.1. Favorable public policies can help raise the
fertility rate above the current level in China, as most Chinese couples are reluctant
to have two (let alone three) children because the more children
they have, the more difficult it would become for them to balance
career and family.
Unlocking population and talent dividends: While China's
working-age population may not increase in the near future,
transferring surplus agricultural laborers and low-productivity
non-agricultural laborers to other sectors can increase the supply
of non-agricultural laborers. Reforms such as relaxing the
household registration restrictions in urban areas can facilitate
workers' mobility and resource reallocation, creating tangible
reform dividends.
Synchronizing population quality and people's living standards:
The alignment of high-quality population development and the
improvement in people's living standards are significant in terms
of policy. The Human Development Index (HDI), which covers per
capita GDP, education, and healthcare, aligns with high-quality
population development. So, policies to improve the HDI can
encourage some couples to have more than one child, as seen in
welfare states such as Sweden.
When it comes to achieving Chinese modernization, policies to help
maintain moderate fertility rates can be integrated with the
strategy to build a comprehensive social welfare system.
By adapting to the new demographic trends, China can better
promote high-quality population development to achieve sustained
economic growth and Chinese modernization, ensuring long-term
prosperity and shared development benefits.
The author Cai Fang is a chief
expert of the National High-end Think Tank, a division under the
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
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SOURCE chinadaily.com.cn