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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Arrow Exploration Corp. LSE:AXL London Ordinary Share CA04274P1053 COM SHS NPV (CDI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 17.50 112,868 08:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
17.00 18.00 17.50 17.50 17.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Aerospace & Defence 5.30 3.23 4.44 3.5 38
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
08:23:23 O 10,000 17.98 GBX

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Posted at 08/2/2023 08:20 by Arrow Exploration Daily Update
Arrow Exploration Corp. is listed in the Aerospace & Defence sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AXL. The last closing price for Arrow Exploration was 17.50p.
Arrow Exploration Corp. has a 4 week average price of 17.20p and a 12 week average price of 15.25p.
The 1 year high share price is 21.60p while the 1 year low share price is currently 10p.
There are currently 215,967,143 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 837,684 shares. The market capitalisation of Arrow Exploration Corp. is £37,794,250.03.
Posted at 26/1/2023 08:24 by jurgensredarmy
I think it’s coming together nicely now. Coms have definitely improved with AXL posting on Twitter a lot more.

A guy I know who is heavily invested here emailed Marshall and he duly replied with photos and his reply which has been posted on the chat group.

I know there are a few people here that have been disappointed with the company’s efforts to date ie missed timelines and so on from last year and I include myself in that but I think they are starting to get to grips with it now.

I have a large holding here and added a lump yesterday. I’m happy to hold and let the story unfold.

I still think MT should email Marshall just to ask why it all went sideways last year.I see the share price is going great guns across the pond.

Posted at 10/1/2023 17:31 by mount teide
Without wishing to be offensive, it would enhance the credibility of some on here if they balanced their posts with a little less cheerleading and a little more high quality research and constructive criticism.

AXL has not drilled a well since May 2022 - over 7 months ago. Unsurprisingly, the share price is at the same price as when the results of the two wells drilled in 2022 became known.

Clearly, the only material share price catalyst is production development growth though infill drilling.

The management need to get the 2023 drilling programme under way ASAP and make sure they deliver it in full this year........anything more than the 2 wells drilled out of the 6 planned in 2022 would have likely seen the share price materially higher than today.

We are still to have an adequate explanation as to why the drilling stopped after 2 wells in 2022, particularly when oil averaged well over $100 barrel.

AIMHO/DYOR

Posted at 30/12/2022 09:34 by spellbrook
5) Arrow Exploration (AXL): 16.75p Target 40p

Although Arrow Exploration has been on the stock market for just over a year, the Colombia focused hydrocarbon play can already be classed as a safe pair of hands. This is said not only in terms of the shares which came to market at 7p, and recently peaked as high as 21p. There is also the matter of the board of the company, which is very much in the blue chip category in terms of notches on its belt and experience. All of this comes to a group with a market cap of £37m. CEO Marshall Abbott has led the company to be able to say that it is on track to achieve 3,000 barrels bopd within 18 months of listing, announced in the wake of record Q3 results as EBITDA rose from just under £1m to £4.6m. Those in the know regarding AXL are pointing to it being debt free, producing $2m of revenue per month, and therefore fully funded with $14m in cash as well as incremental production. With additional production set to come in imminently and going into 2023, there is the prospect by mid 2023 of a considerable ramp up in output as new wells come on board, leading to as much as 10,000 bopd, and a dividend payout in the manner of say, an i3 Energy. Given how long the shares have been consolidating in the upper teens, one would expect that the next time AXL shares break the 20p level, they will break higher for good

Posted at 21/12/2022 10:07 by mount teide
Some great O&G industry factual analysis by Alex Kimani, a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven, a company dedicated to the Preservation of Capital.

Well worth a read, even the though much of the underlying thesis - the Great Transition from new economy into old economy investments triggered by the commencement of the third global commodity super-cycle in 50 years - may have been routinely promoted, argued and discussed at length by me in numerous posts over the past 3-4 years.

Why Buffett has been transiting from Banking into Energy stocks - 21 Dec 2022

'For decades, Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett maintained a pretty conservative approach to investing, favouring retail and banking stocks.

Big American banks have been Warren Buffett's favorite investment because they are part of the infrastructure of the country, a nation he continually bets on. As recently as late 2019, Berkshire had large stakes in four of the five biggest US banks, with Wells Fargo remaining Buffett’s top stock holding for three straight years through 2017.

But Buffett appears to have changed his investing ethos quite dramatically over the past couple of years, taking new multi-billion dollar stakes in energy and computer corporations while shunning the banking sector.

After the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, Buffett unloaded Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs on the cheap, despite many stocks in the sector becoming significantly cheaper to own.

"I like banks generally, I just didn't like the proportion we had compared to the possible risk if we got the bad results that so far we haven't gotten," Buffett told investors at last year’s shareholder meeting.

Various analysts have shared their takes on Buffett’s banking divestments.

"What this is telling you is, he thinks we need to batten down the hatches because we're looking at a long cycle of inflation and probably stagnation. Banks are very cyclical, and all indications are that we're in a high inflation, high rate environment for a while. What that typically means is that lending activity is going to be compressed and investment activity is going to be depressed," Phillip Phan, a professor at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, has told CNBC.

Despite rising interest rates this year, which typically boost banks because lending margins improve, the banking sector has been hammered: WFC is down 18.9% YTD, JPM has cratered 20.3% while GS has lost 12.9% on concerns that the US economy could stall as the Fed combats inflation with interest rate hikes.

Buffett has been doubling down on his energy investments while trimming his banking holdings despite oil and gas stocks being at multi-year high valuations.

To wit, the legendary investor has added new shares in red-hot E&P companies Occidental Petroleum Corp and Chevron Inc despite both currently trading at multi-year highs.

According to Berkshire’s latest filing, the company bought 118.3M OXY shares in multiple transactions bringing its stake in OXY to 136.4M shares, or 14.6% of its shares outstanding. Berkshire also owns OXY warrants granting the right to acquire some 83.9M additional common shares at about $59.62 each plus another 100,000 OXY preferred shares.

Earlier, Berkshire revealed that it purchased about 9.4 million shares of oil titan Chevron in the fourth quarter, boosting its stake to 38 million shares currently worth $6.2 billion.

OXY has doubled over the past 12 months, while CVX is up 40.9%, with both stocks trading near multi-year highs. But, obviously, Buffet thinks they still have plenty of upside judging by the huge positions opened by his investment conglomerate.

You can bet that Buffett will continue adding to his oil and gas positions in the coming year.

David Rosenberg, founder of independent research firm Rosenberg Research & Associates has outlined 5 key reasons why energy stocks remain a buy in 2023 despite oil prices failing to make any major gains over the past couple of months.

* 1. Favourable Valuations

Energy stocks remain cheap despite the huge runup. Not only has the sector widely outperformed the market, but companies within this sector remain relatively cheap, undervalued, and come with above-average projected earnings growth.

Rosenberg has analyzed PE ratios by energy stocks by looking at historical data since 1990 and found that, on average, the sector ranks in just its 27th percentile historically. In contrast, the S&P 500 sits in its 71st percentile despite the deep selloff that happened earlier in the year.

hTTps://d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net/tinymce/2022-12/1671563137-o_1gkoeqikr1ud5nkq17p01psdvp88_large.jpg

Some of the cheapest oil and gas stocks right now include Ovintiv Inc with a PE ratio of 6.09, Civitas Resources @ 4.87, Enerplus Corporation @ 5.80, Occidental Petroleum Corporation @ 7.09 while Canadian Natural Resources Limited is trading at a P/E of 6.79.

* 2. Robust Earnings

Strong earnings by energy companies are a big reason why investors are still flocking to oil stocks.

Q3 earnings season is nearly over, but so far it’s shaping up to be better-than-feared. According to FactSet’s earnings insights, 94% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 2022 earnings, of which 69% have reported a positive EPS surprise and 71% have reported a positive revenue surprise.

The Energy sector has reported the highest earnings growth of all eleven sectors at 137.3% v 2.2% average by the S&P 500.

At the sub-industry level, all five sub-industries in the sector reported a year-over-year increase in earnings: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (302%), Integrated Oil & Gas (138%), Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (107%), Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (91%), and Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (21%).

Energy is also the sector that has most companies beating Wall Street estimates at 81%. The positive revenue surprises reported by Marathon Petroleum ($47.2 billion vs. $35.8 billion), Exxon Mobil ($112.1 billion vs. $104.6 billion), Chevron ($66.6 billion vs. $57.4 billion), Valero Energy ($42.3 billion vs. $40.1billion), and Phillips 66 ($43.4 billion vs. $39.3 billion) were significant contributors to the increase in the revenue growth rate for the index since September 30.

Even better, the outlook for the energy sector remains bright. According to a recent Moody's research report, industry earnings will stabilize overall in 2023, though they will come in slightly below levels reached by recent peaks.

The analysts note that commodity prices have declined from very high levels earlier in 2022, but have predicted that prices are likely to remain cyclically strong through 2023. This, combined with modest growth in volumes, will support strong cash flow generation for oil and gas producers. Moody’s estimates that the U.S. energy sector’s EBITDA for 2022 will clock in at $$623B but fall to $585B in 2023.

The analysts say that low capex, rising uncertainty about the expansion of future supplies and high geopolitical risk premium will, however, continue to support cyclically high oil prices. Meanwhile, strong export demand for U.S. LNG will continue supporting high natural gas prices.

In other words, there simply aren’t better places for people investing in the US stock market to park their money if they are looking for serious earnings growth. Further, the outlook for the sector remains bright.

Whereas oil and gas prices have declined from recent highs, they are still much higher than they have been over the past couple of years hence the ongoing enthusiasm in the energy markets.

Indeed, the energy sector remains a huge Wall Street favorite, with the Zacks Oils and Energy sector being the top-ranked sector out of all 16 Zacks Ranked Sectors.

* 3. Strong Payouts to Shareholders

Over the past two years, US energy companies have changed their former playbook from using most of their cash flows for production growth to returning more cash to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.

Consequently, the combined dividend and buyback yield for the energy sector is now approaching 8%, which is high by historical standards. Rosenberg notes that similarly elevated levels occurred in 2020 and 2009, which preceded periods of strength. In comparison, the combined dividend and buyback yield for the S&P 500 is closer to five per cent, which makes for one of largest gaps in favor of the energy sector on record.

* 4. Low Inventories

Despite sluggish demand, U.S. inventory levels are at their lowest level since mid-2000 despite the Biden administration trying to lower prices by flooding markets with 180 million barrels of crude from the SPR. Rosenberg notes that other potential catalysts that could result in additional upward pressure on prices include Russian oil price cap, a further escalation in the Russia/Ukraine war and China pivoting away from its Zero COVID-19 policy.

* 5. Higher embedded “OPEC+ put”

Rosenberg makes a point that OPEC+ is now more comfortable with oil trading above $90 per barrel as opposed to the $60-$70 range they accepted in recent years. The energy expert says this is the case because the cartel is less concerned about losing market share to U.S. shale producers since the latter have prioritized payouts to shareholders instead of aggressive production growth.

The new stance by OPEC+ offer better visibility and predictability for oil prices while prices in the $90 per barrel range can sustain strong payouts via dividends and buybacks.

Given these factors coupled with fears that a recession might hit in the coming year, Buffett and the investing universe are going to struggle to find a more attractive sector to park their money in 2023.'

Posted at 04/12/2022 17:20 by here and there
Just gone through the three latest messages from the company.

The Proactive Interview , the Quarterlies and the Zak Mir interview (see link below)

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/trader-s-cafe-with-zak-mir-marshall-abbott-ceo-and-joe-macfarlane-cfo-arrow-exploration-6e90d8c/

The proactive Interview was clearly way too early for definitive numbers on the re-completions. Judging by the way the 'market' has reacted with the share price dropping from 20.5 to 17.5, the 'market' was obsessing about the minutae of the re-completion numbers. Whilst MA had forecast a 600 bopd increase, we have at present a 350-380 BOPD increase with the numbers improving day by day still. The pay back on the costs for RCS-1 were 17 days! So we are producing more, making more money per month just not quite as much as we had hoped.

The decline rate on East Pepper has been startling but has now stabilsed at 250 boepd (1.5 mmscf ish). I guess this wouldn't have seemedsoo bad if they had kept to their original forecast for E Pepper of an intial production rate of 500 BOEPD. I imagine the excitement of those intial flush production rates gave hope to a more extended and higher production run. Between W Pepper and East pepper it looks like it is producing at about 5-6 mmscf. Good cash flow, good prices, all adding dollars to the bottom line. Plenty of chat re-inforcing their intention to sell Monteney and there is added interest now these wells are drilled, proved and on production.

One titbit in the Quarterlies. RCS-1 will have another re-completion. (presumably now?) and this is forecast to add several hundred more BOPD.

"An upper unit in the Carbonara 7A was perforated and flowed 330 bop/d (gross) after
stabilizing. Management believes a thin shale barrier bifurcates the C7A. It is apparent
that a thin shale break prevents inflow from the C7A main sand, which has superior
reservoir characteristics akin to RCE-2. Arrow now plans to perforate the C7A in RCS-1 as
it is the highest reservoir in the pool. The Company expects that RCS-1 should have a
comparable flow rate to RCE-2, where C7A is currently producing 1,025 bop/d (gross) /
512 bop/d (net) with a flat watercut."

All of these are nice add ons, clearly they are learning how to manage the reservoirs all the time but the real game in town is 'Phase 2' . The drilling of 5/6 wells, all with a 95% COS, all forecast to add 360 bopd net to Arrow. Each well costing circa $4.25m and having pay backs of just 37 days.

At $70 oil, 2023 will bring in $55m in revenue, $37m of cashflow. $6.7m of free cashflow (after capex spend) and they will have $21m in the bank at the end of 2023. Today oil is at $85 so we have plenty of extra margin to play with.

They see enough runway on the Llanos Basin and the Middle Magdalena to get to 10 000 bopd. This does not include Oso Pardo which will add, on success, another 4000 bopd.

'We look forward to positive and significant share price appreciation as we execute on the drilling programme.'
'Production incline will take care of the share price'

I bought the dip last week for all the above reasons.

Posted at 03/12/2022 15:05 by mount teide
btb - while the business strategy being followed by MA at AXL and AK at SAVE is largely similar - aggressive growth. It's being carried out in a totally different way.

MA is looking to triple production over 18 months, and increased it 10 fold over 3-5 years, primarily via organic growth.

AK, is looking for a similar level of production growth but over 5-10 years primarily via the acquisition of attractively priced, high quality mid/late phase O&G assets with excellent re-investment potential(in-fill well potential), being offered for sale by large independents, NOC's and the Majors as they increasingly transition towards renewable energy projects.

I agree with Zues' comments - that MA'a very aggressive production growth timetable is reliant on the perfect delivery of every aspect of the operational plan. Long experience of O&G sector investment, will show that is mostly unachievable, even by the best management teams.

However, I can live with that, because, MA's goal, of achieving 3,000 boepd by the end of Q1/2023 is still broadly on target and likely to get hit, despite not necessarily following the original plan to get there (there is more than one way to skin a fish). Top management, like good sports teams, more often than not find a way to win(reach their targets), when things don't go as planned. I'm invested here because of the AXL team's long track record of delivering exceptional shareholder returns, by getting the major decisions right far more often than wrong.

See the strong likelihood of a scenario, where after taking production up to 5,000 - 7,500 bopd, through the organic development of Rio Cravo, CN and Oso Pardo over the next 2-3 years, of a trade sale to our neighbour, Parex. The largest Independent O&G operator in Colombia, currently investing in am extremely aggressive production development plan across its Llanos Basin assets.

With regard to SAVE, following increasing reservations about having the required experience and business skills to deliver on his business development strategy after the company resumed trading following the RTO suspension for the Nigerian deal, I sold most of my shareholding but continued to evaluate the business and AK's performance.

After AK demonstrated that the Nigerian assets under his stewardship were capable of producing an operating margin of over 80% with upside potential, I took advantage of the tremendous opportunity thrown up by Covid, to increase my holding by 2.0m shares, at a near 80% price discount to the average weighted price paid by the blue chip Institutional investors for the circa $300m of cash they gave him for equity. That the share-price subsequently increased from 7-9p to 40p in the following 18 months fully vindicated the decision.

The fall in the share-price since is entirely related to the delay experienced by Exxon failing to meet the scheduled timetable for completing the C&C deal, due to contesting the Chad Government's insistence on demanding a leaving 'payment' that Exxon were under no contractual obligation to pay.

Like poster Zengas, following closure of the C&C deals, I think the company has assets with the cash flow generation to organically develop the company into a 100,000 boepd business over the next 2 years, capable of commanding a 100p - 200p share-price market valuation.

With respect to 'we', I often use the term, to refer to two shipping/ports industry friends(BP and Shell veterans), that I first met and trained with 45 years ago. We jointly research companies that look interesting for investment and, almost without exception invest in the same companies at similar levels. So, as a group, trebling my holding, would give a good indication as to what we jointly hold......which in the case of TXP would have qualified as a notifiable holding, when we first invested back in summer 2017.

For reasons I've posted about before, we have been 100% invested in the O&G, industrial metals and Shipping sectors for over two years. The fortunes of these industries have risen and fallen with the reliability of a Swiss watch over the last 70 years - it's called the commodity market cycle.

The oil, product and LNG tanker sectors are currently entering the strongest market conditions we've seen for at least 25 years, and possible ever, such is the impact that a 10% increase in demand for their services is already having, prior to the blanket EU ban on Russian O&G imports commencing next week, on an industry where the supply/demand dynamic came into balance in 2022 for the first time in 14 years.

Our picks for the sector are Scorpio Tankers (STNG) and Teekay Tankers (TNK) - we built positions in both during May 2022, which we've continued to add to at up to $52/share at Scorpio.......started a thread on STNG, as we now see it as a 2-3 year hold with a 12-18 month $100 price target(way above what analysts were recently forecasting. Shipping sector specialist Jeffries, who cover the stocks, seem to have finally spotted the exceptional potential of the sector, which I have been posting about on Advfn for months, as last week they increased their 2023 earnings forecast by 138% and 160% respectively for the stocks.

AIMHO/DYOR

Posted at 28/11/2022 13:56 by mount teide
jb - read plenty of research on the oil market, from which I continue to come to the same view as the Saudi's, which is what many of us have been writing about and investing accordingly since 2017: that what will be driving the oil market and global energy crisis over the rest of this decade is the catastrophic collapse in E&P Capex since 2014. Everything else is just background noise by comparison.

Of course, as Jeff Currie at Goldman explained well, future oil price movement will not be straight up but, broadly follow a pattern as in past periods of supply tightness that are structural(created by a lack of investment)......they will be a series of spikes up and down from a high floor price.

Consequently, aș a long term investor in an oil market that has been starved of investment since 2014, have been using recent oil price weakness to add to my O&G and shipping positions.

However, been a little disappointed not to have got more 'value'.

Seems the reason for this is that more of the mainstream investment market has now spotted, something some of us have been writing about for 9 months, that even at $75 oil, the now super lean oil producers have already proved they can still deliver all time record levels of FCF.


Something that analyst Alex Kimani at Oilprice.com has been writing about this week:

Oil Stocks Are Showing A Peculiar Disconnect From Crude Prices

* Oil prices are showing a peculiar disconnect with energy stocks.

* The current disconnect hasn’t been seen since 2006.

* Shareholders remain bullish on the energy sector as firms continue to pay strong dividends.


'Oil stocks have continued to show a peculiar disconnect from the commodity they track, with oil equities staging a powerful rally even as oil prices have fallen sharply since the last OPEC meeting.

Over the past two months, the energy sector’s leading benchmark, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLE), has climbed 34% while average crude spot prices have declined 18%. XLE now boasts a 61.2% return in the year-to-date, the best of any U.S. market sector.

According to Bespoke Investment Group via the Wall Street Journal, the current split marks the first time since 2006 that the oil and gas sector has traded within 3% of a 52-week high while the WTI price retreated more than 25% from its respective 52-week high. It’s also only the fifth such divergence since 1990.

The U.S. oil majors have not disappointed, either: over the past two months, Exxon Mobil Corp. has gained 35.3%; Chevron Corp. is up 30.6%, ConocoPhillips has climbed 30.1%, Phillips 66 has rallied 45.3% while Marathon Petroleum Corp has returned 40.3%. This trend rings true even for shorter timeframes, with all the stocks here being in the green over the past five trading sessions with the exception of COP which is down 0.5%.

There’s a method to the madness, though.

Strong Earnings

Robust earnings by energy companies are a big reason why investors are still flocking to oil stocks.

Third quarter earnings season is nearly over, but so far it’s shaping up to be better-than-feared. According to FactSet’s earnings insights, for Q3 2022, 94% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 2022 earnings, of which 69% have reported a positive EPS surprise and 71% have reported a positive revenue surprise.

The Energy sector has reported the highest earnings growth of all eleven sectors at 137.3% vs. 2.2% average by the S&P 500.

At the sub-industry level, all five sub-industries in the sector reported a year-over-year increase in earnings: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (302%), Integrated Oil & Gas (138%), Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (107%), Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (91%), and Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (21%).

Energy is also the sector that has most companies beating Wall Street estimates at 81%. The positive revenue surprises reported by Marathon Petroleum ($47.2 billion vs. $35.8 billion), Exxon Mobil ($112.1 billion vs. $104.6 billion), Chevron ($66.6 billion vs. $57.4 billion), Valero Energy ($42.3 billion vs. $40.1billion), and Phillips 66 ($43.4 billion vs. $39.3 billion) were significant contributors to the increase in the revenue growth rate for the index since September 30.

Even better, the outlook for the energy sector remains bright. According to a recent Moody's research report, industry earnings will stabilize overall in 2023, though they will come in slightly below levels reached by recent peaks.

The analysts note that commodity prices have declined from very high levels earlier in 2022, but have predicted that prices are likely to remain cyclically strong through 2023. This, combined with modest growth in volumes, will support strong cash flow generation for oil and gas producers. Moody’s estimates that the U.S. energy sector’s EBITDA for 2022 will clock in at $$623B but fall to $585B in 2023.

The analysts say that low capex, rising uncertainty about the expansion of future supplies and high geopolitical risk premium will, however, continue to support cyclically high oil prices. Meanwhile, strong export demand for U.S. LNG will continue supporting high natural gas prices.

In other words, there simply aren’t better places for people investing in the U.S. stock market to park their money if they are looking for serious earnings growth. Further, the outlook for the sector remains bright.

Whereas oil and gas prices have declined from recent highs, they are still much higher than they have been over the past couple of years hence the ongoing enthusiasm in the energy markets. Indeed, the energy sector remains a huge Wall Street favorite, with the Zacks Oils and Energy sector being the top-ranked sector out of all 16 Zacks Ranked Sectors.

Share Buybacks

Further, earnings in the sector are likely to remain high due to high levels of share buybacks. Oil and gas supermajors are on course to repurchase their shares at near-record levels this year thanks to soaring oil and gas prices helping them to deliver bumper profits and boost returns for investors.

According to data from Bernstein Research, the seven supermajors are poised to return $38bn to shareholders through buyback programmes this year, with investment bank RBC Capital Markets putting the total figure even higher, at $41bn.

In 2014, when oil was trading over $100/barrel, we only saw $21 billion in buybacks. This year’s figure easily outpaces the 2008 number.

But here’s another interesting thing: Big Oil’s capex and production have remained mostly flat despite reporting record second-quarter profits.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that Big Oil companies have mostly downshifted both capital spending and production for the second-quarter. An EIA review of 53 public U.S. gas and oil companies, responsible for about 34% of domestic production, showed a 5% decline in capital expenditures in the second-quarter vs. Q1 this year.

Cheap Energy Stocks

Another surprising finding: energy stocks remain cheap despite the huge runup. Not only has the sector widely outperformed the market, but companies within this sector remain relatively cheap, undervalued, and come with above-average projected earnings growth.

Key Metrics for O&G Sector

PE
8.19 - Energy
16.42 - S&P 500

Peg Ratio
0.58 - Energy
1.89 - S&P 500

Proj EPS Growth
95.62% - Energy
6.38 - S&P 500

Posted at 14/11/2022 09:10 by here and there
That TR1 explasins what has held the price back over the past couple of months. I gather from the broker grapevine that they have stopped here, hence the RNS and the TR1 notice. The price action backs this up, share price is grinding up nicely now on steady buys, no big seller holding the share price back. Shaping up nicely into this news rich period.
Posted at 13/11/2022 10:39 by jurgensredarmy
I think AXL will double within 6 months and some which is why I have a very large position here.

I looked at other oilers before this like the ones mentioned above but for me, AXL was the standout for the reasons I’ve listed below.

Look at our asset base which is increasing on a weekly/ monthly basis with drilling and bringing wells online etc etc. Also potential acquisitions have been mentioned along with divi’s and we have a very low share base around 250- 260 million fully diluted which I like.

We will be producing 10,000 bopd/ equivalent before you know it and Marshall has mentioned this number quite a few times.

We have zero debt which in itself for a small cap biz is massive we have over $14 million dollars in the bank which is growing month on month and we have cannacord on board as well which is also a huge plus for me.

We have a great team in place lead by Marshall who has done this before and his track record for me is a big tick. Remember he has done this seven times already before AXL built companies up from nothing then sold them for top dollar.

AXL’s revenue projections are based on oil @$70.00 per barrel, oil is currently trading around $95.00 per barrel so that’s more cash coming in to the bottom line for AXL.

The share register for me is also interesting David and Monica Newlands have a stake in AXL. For those of you who don’t know these two they basically own Serica Energy and bought in early doors in the 5-6p range and look where that is now.

For me this is the golden goose DYOR.

Posted at 19/10/2022 15:02 by mount teide
"We see 2030 oil demand 7.1 million b/d above 2019 levels"

"Oil could still average around $80/b next year in a recessionary environment, but if OPEC+ falls short, shale growth continues to slow, and demand keeps rising, prices could spike toward $150/b in 2023."

JP Morgan Commodities Team


INTERVIEW: High oil prices haven't moved the needle on investment, says JP Morgan's Malek - S&P Global Platts

'High oil prices have failed to bring about a significant increase in investment, raising the risk of a hugely undersupplied oil market this decade, according to Christyan Malek, JP Morgan's Global Head of Energy Strategy.

JP Morgan's research shows a $400 billion oil underspend to 2030 and paints a grim picture in which all energy investment -- in both fossil and non-fossil fuels -- needs to grow at a faster rate than the prevailing investment implies.

The threat of a large investment shortfall has loomed large over the industry for some time, but the fact that higher oil prices and growing energy security concerns haven't translated into a strong recovery in spending should cause alarm bells to ring even louder.

"In contrast with renewables, the oil industry is comparatively starved of capital but with an abundance of projects and potential supply to be tapped into," Malek told S&P Global Commodity Insights in an interview.

Malek said at the same time fossil fuels are certain to play a role in the longer-term energy mix, due to the fact that oil is largely non-fungible with other energy sources to 2030, such as in transportation and chemicals.

"So oil is really where we see the greatest need for incremental investment, both in sustaining the existing production base, as well as growing it, as we see 2030 demand 7.1 million b/d above 2019 levels, with current spending levels implying a 700,000 b/d average gap to 2030," he said.

While oil prices have moved structurally higher over the past year, with average Brent prices up more than 40% in 2022, Malek said there has been very little change in upstream growth ambitions, with nearly all companies that provide medium-term spending outlooks sticking closely to the ranges laid out over the past few years.

"Oil capex is up, but not enough," said Malek. So while JP Morgan's commodities team estimates upstream spend growing 13% this year, the highest growth rate in a decade, Malek said this comes from a very low starting point, and investment remains more than 45% below the 2014 peak.

Malek pointed out that the relationship between price and capex has broken down materially.

"Outside of the national oil companies, most other companies would need to raise spending 30%-40% to get back on trend... Instead, within the total spending envelope the commitments to low carbon and renewable energies are growing significantly faster and this is adding further pressure to upstream budgets," Malek said.

Analysis by S&P Global lends some weight to Malek's view that spending has not spiked in line with price as in previous years even if there has been some upturn in investment. This year to date, nine non-OPEC major oil projects have been sanctioned and S&P Global expects the annual number to reach 16 projects, which would match last year's total.

Malek said there is now some recognition that investing in fossil fuels is critical for maintaining energy security. However, he added that "while we are seeing recognition of the need for investment into oil and gas, it hasn't translated yet into actual additional spending."

Supply challenges - Malek warned that supply looks more challenged than ever, with US shale production growth limited by supply-chain restrictions and OPEC+ capacity constraints and production quota misses.

JP Morgan's commodities research suggests oil could still average around $80/b next year in a recessionary environment, but if OPEC+ falls short, shale growth continues to slow, and demand keeps rising, prices could spike toward $150/b in 2023.

Many OPEC+ producers have been struggling to meet their quotas given sanctions and capacity constraints, with only Saudi Arabia and UAE the having an adequate amount of leverage, while US producers continue to spend with caution as US output grows but remains well short of its 13 million b/d peak in 2020.

The International Energy Agency provided a similar warning in its October monthly report. "While previous large spikes in oil prices have spurred a strong investment response leading to greater supply from non-OPEC producers, this time may be different," the Paris-based energy watchdog said.

"US shale producers, traditionally the most responsive to changing market conditions, are struggling with supply chain constraints and cost inflation -- and, so far, they are maintaining capital discipline... This casts doubt on suggestions that higher prices will necessarily balance the market through additional supply," the IEA said.

Malek said the recent decision by OPEC+ to cut a headline 2 million b/d in production is a sign that the group is willing to defend $80/b, underpins a floor on prices and offsets the recent downward momentum, which has seen Dated Brent drop from close to $140/b in March to below $90/b in October.

"This price stability is needed for investment to be realized," Malek said, adding that the role of OPEC "is not just meeting demand today, but incentivizing the market to invest in enough supply to meet demand in the future too."

It is a message that OPEC has tried to communicate on a regular basis, but consumer nations having to pay higher prices have not always been in agreement.'

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