Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[stupmy] 03/12/2019 13:16

Quite interesting all the same. To the best of my knowlege TLW haven't gone much further than indicating it's high sulfur, heavy crude and they will have to assess it's commerciality. The detail (14 API, 5% S from memory) came through a 3rd party channel. It would be nice for TLW to just clear this up and state what they have, rather than leave it all open to speculation. The market clearly believes there's a big risk this oil is non-commercial, hence the sell off.

[carlosalberto70] 03/12/2019 12:50

Another view on Sulphur in Guyana from across the pond.

I wouldn't pay too much heed to it as the numbers they quote are at odds with what has been published.




Sulfur Risk
One final thing I want to discuss is the potential of sulfur in the oil. Tullow Oil (OTCPK:TUWLF) (OTCPK:TUWOY) recently announced that it was reassessing the viability of its Guyana oil production given high levels of sulfur in the oil. The discovery had a massive negative impact on Tullow Oil’s stock, and a substantial negative impact on Hess Corporation’s stock. Interestingly enough, the impact on Exxon Mobil’s stock was much smaller.
For reference though, investors were overreacting. Tullow Oil reported API of ~45 and a sulfur content of 2% from its wells. Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar Field, which has some of the lowest industry costs, has 2% sulfur and an API ~30-35. Exxon Mobil has reported that the Guyana oil it has found has ~0.5% sulfur and an API of 30-35. That is quality crude oil.

It’s also important to keep in mind that what might be unprofitable for Tullow Oil could be very profitable for Exxon Mobil, solely because of the difference in scale of the company’s operations.
Conclusion
Guyana is the King of Exxon Mobil’s portfolio. With the various expansion projects, which are likely an understatement given how much the project has grown in recent years, it could increase the company’s production by double digits and its profits by even more. The company has continued to explore heavily in this region, and I expect reserves and production forecasts to go up.
The region is very profitable. It does have some geopolitical risks, but sulfur risks are overblown. I expect the region will be a long-term cash cow that isn’t discussed by the investment community, and I expect, given Exxon Mobil’s low share price, investing now will be a strong long-term reward opportunity.

[billy_buffin] 03/12/2019 08:31

Etame: 7.5% still? SUCCESSFUL ETAME 9H WELL BOOSTS PRODUCTION

[xxnjr] 02/12/2019 21:23

Apache $7.35bn market cap now, closed down 12.3%.

[xxnjr] 02/12/2019 13:34

Apache update, no doubt scripted by the less than forthcoming CEO. Pre-market are marking this down, so I guess the initial interpretation is negative.

[ifthecapfits] 02/12/2019 12:29

Be good to get Uganda sorted.

[spacedust] 02/12/2019 11:01

This will be well over 200p just like so many times before and we will be thinking why didn't we buy any sub 150p

[wodahsnoom] 02/12/2019 10:48

Uganda Govt won't want to lose face so don't read too much into the "spin". They are as interested in getting this sorted out as the three partners.

[alfiex] 02/12/2019 10:42

They just need to get Uganda sorted asap

[xxnjr] 02/12/2019 10:40

Would be nice if that were to happen, but if you read the article technowiz, the "offer" from Gov.Ug is actually same, or even worse than before in terms of tax treatment.

[technowiz] 02/12/2019 10:17

211p target!

[...]

[technowiz] 02/12/2019 09:48

and then some!

hxxps://observer.ug/businessnews/62799-uganda-expects-3-5bn-oil-investment-deal-by-january

[spacedust] 02/12/2019 09:39

150p at some point in December for no reason

[0rient] 02/12/2019 08:45

Sellers totally exhausted..be nice to see some upside during the next couple of weeks :-)

[dealy] 02/12/2019 08:35

hysteria phase over

[wodahsnoom] 02/12/2019 08:31

I see speculation on Carapa commences!!

[0rient] 02/12/2019 08:28

Let’s hope some good news is brewing..we deserve some!!

[xxnjr] 02/12/2019 08:24

Good grief. It's gone blue!

[pro_s2009] 02/12/2019 00:32

Repsol should be into the target zone this week at Carapa.




Repsol set to hit target zone for Carapa-1

27 November 2019 18:53 GMT Updated 27 November 2019 18:53 GMT

Spain's Repsol has not yet penetrated the targeted zone with a closely-watched wildcat in Guyana’s Kanuku block, but will do so in early December, writes Gareth Chetwynd. Drilling on the Carapa-1 wildcat was put back due to delays in the rig handover.......

[xxnjr] 01/12/2019 13:25

Cannot see any progress in this at all. Just going round in circles. If only TLW had let the original ENI deal go through, and not upset Museveni at the time.

".....The Uganda Revenue Authority assessed a Capital Gains Tax of $167 million on the Tullow Oil farm down. Before the State House meeting, Tullow Oil had agreed to pay $85 million of this money, with Total E&P and Cnooc topping it up with $82 million.

Government has instead agreed to pay the $82 million to URA.However, if the oil firms agree to the idea of Govt paying the $82 million then Total E&P and Cnooc will not inherit the $617 million exploration costs, which they would have exploited for tax deduction purposes when Uganda starts producing oil sometime after the year 2023.

But if Tullow Oil agrees to pay the entire $167 million, then Total E&P and Cnooc will inherit the $617 million. However, these two offers are only available if Tullow Oil revives the exact terms of its farm-down deal that expired on August 29."

[subsurface] 30/11/2019 23:06

Interesting to see how things turn out in block 58 Suriname, Apachi have a few problems.


Desi Bouterse: Suriname president gets 20 years in jail for murder