Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[spacedust] 26/11/2019 13:37

Stumpy there's absolutely no rationale whatsoever.

Like I said the share price will go up all the way till Friday and will end the week blue for absolutely no reason whatsoever.

So far I've been correct since my comment.

[stupmy] 26/11/2019 12:33

Spacedust, please give a rationale for you statement 'bottom reached'

For me I'll be interested to watch price action around 3pm.

Master, I've previously given my own rationale for why I believe that sub 90 or over 150 are possible. What I can't say is which scenario is more likely. I do believe that the Carapa-1 drill will be an important catalyst for share price movement.

I have no idea bout PJJ71's rationale.

[spacedust] 26/11/2019 12:19

During the financial crisis the lowest the share price went was to 120p which was Armageddon financially.

I predict that on the basis of no news this will just simply keep going up for no reason.

[pjj71] 26/11/2019 11:15

not out of thin air.. just basic interpretation of the chart, sentiment and calamity!!!!

[zingaro] 26/11/2019 11:13

PJJ - ridiculous numbers pulled out the air

[pjj71] 26/11/2019 11:12

bad drill result sub 90p good result maybe 150p.... too much downside risk for now... will wait for the 80s....

[spacedust] 26/11/2019 10:55

Bottom reached. I'm thinking of adding now. Will be kicking my self on Xmas day and punching myself on boxing day.

[stupmy] 26/11/2019 09:39

Captain, depends if you want to be long or short, both can be good if you're not a hub and hold type.

[spacedust] 26/11/2019 09:34

When this is back over 200p many of us will scratch our heads and think why don't I buy this or buy more of this

[captain james t kirk] 26/11/2019 08:37

stupmy
Thanks for the reply but surely your view that the share price will move significantly down on bad news (with which I agree) is not reconcilable with "the share price will react quite well to good or bad news." Hence my confusion.

[spacedust] 26/11/2019 07:56

Watch the share price suddenly will go up for absolutely no reason whatsoever

[stupmy] 26/11/2019 07:44

Accepted that things take time woda, and my view is not about cashflow today or tomorrow. If Guyana is effectively removed from future cashflow projections that will have an impact on share price in my view. The need for oil is changing and the next 10-20 years are going to be very important. Discoveries will need to be made and monetised as quickly as possible to shape the future of oil companies. The supermajors will diversify, but the lower echelons might not have that luxury.

[stupmy] 26/11/2019 07:28

Pretty simple captain, share price will move significantly down on bad news and significantly up on good news. Just a view.

[captain james t kirk] 26/11/2019 07:21

Stupmy
"Carapa-1 is important at least in the short term and in my view the share price will react quite well to good or bad news."
I'm afraid you will have to explain the logic behind that one to me.
I was tempted to say you have me stumped.

[stupmy] 26/11/2019 07:05

Agreed xxnjr, cashflow is very important oil companies. Everything now needs to be funded from cashflow not further debt (at least for most). Carapa-1 is important at least in the short term and in my view the share price will react quite well to good or bad news. Investing because you want to believe lifes all good comes with a high risk. We don't always get what we want.

[xxnjr] 25/11/2019 22:52

Surely it's about Guyana. TLW has a huge debt pile, which is not being reduced fast enough. Interest payments on the debt restricts what can be spent elsewhere on developing the business. With Uganda/Kenya kicked into the long grass, post Jethro the market thought Tullow would be able to monetise 2/3rds of Guyana for a significant pile of cash, deleveraging the balance sheet and enabling more timely investment to sort out the issues in Ghana, which in turn would boost production and cashflow there. A virtuous circle. What the market now fears is no cash from Guyana, slower debt reduction, slower investment in Ghana, perhaps leading to more production downgrades there. Hence they need to find something commercial in Guyana and find it fast.

[daler1966] 25/11/2019 19:45

A lot of after hour buys?

[spacedust] 25/11/2019 19:00

Is tullow a trick pony?????? I.e. Caraca and they have nothing else.

[rationaleee] 25/11/2019 18:49

People are reading too much into.the Guyana campaign. I don't think the price action is due to Guyana as it was never really valued much into the equity price before the discoveries. It's the Ghana production and sloppy management that the market is punishing. Maybe market is trying to price in an impairment due to Ghana assets if production is lower for next year. Carapa result won't have much of an impact i.e. +/- 3% max I think. It's the Ghana and rest of the production the market needs convincing

[stupmy] 25/11/2019 17:51

I would argue the short case is very similar to the long case. A straight gamble on Carapa-1 news. If that comes out as light sweet crude in abundance, then you'd feel pretty glum being short. For me TLW is not an intestment at present, it's either a short term trade or a straight gamble on the next (probably out of hours) news.

[mcsean2164] 25/11/2019 17:24

For those talking about shorts.



No shorts requiring disclosure. Historically very low short presence.

[cielos] 25/11/2019 17:13

It keeps falling in the Afternoon the same happen last Friday, the US institutions - shorting - and playing with the stock

[mercer95] 25/11/2019 17:04

The final Guyanese drilling target of the year is now more crucial than ever for the company’s exploration campaign and the near-term recovery of the share price. The Carapa well currently being drilled is the first in the Kanuku block, split between operator Repsol of Spain (37.5pc) and partners Total (25pc) and Tullow (37.5pc), and the first to test the Cretaceous play—both Jethro and Joe were found in the Tertiary.
Makes more sense with this bit DYOR

[mercer95] 25/11/2019 17:00

Tullow says around 50pc of prospective resources across both the Kanuku and Orinduik blocks are located within the Cretaceous, indicating that the well is likely the most important of the year. A report from US investment bank JP Morgan highlighted that the oil quality is unlikely to be an issue given the light oil discovered in the Cretaceous at Liza. The rig at Carapa began operations one month behind schedule, but the partners aim to conclude operations before the start of next year
That’s from the Petroleum Economist, I bought in today GLA