Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[spacedust] 25/11/2019 16:42

120p or 150p by Friday 430pm?

[alfiex] 25/11/2019 16:28

We need a miracle

[teamwork1] 25/11/2019 16:26

We need positive news here

[stupmy] 25/11/2019 14:45

In my view, whatever one thinks the charts are showing, it can invalidated by news. Often the charts are incorporating some 'forward knowledge'. To my mind they remain useful. But there are a herd of rather large elephants in the room. 1) Jethro/Joe oil very heavy, very high sulfur and may not be commercial 2) the perception rightly or wrongly that management did not provide this information to the market on a timely basis and it seems not in a specific way. 3) TLW's Ghana assets (Jubilee/Ten) are producing a lower rate than had been expected. 4) Uganda farm down issues. 5) Carapa-1 news probably in December. Assuming TLW find oil, management will presumably know early a fair bit about the quality of that oil. But will they pass this information on to shareholders in a timely manner? Do you trust them to to this? Bad news on Carapa will very likely take the share price down from here. Even now without news, there is some effort to take it down. We're at 138 now and if it closes below that, it seems to be opening up the downside. 85p is not out of the quesiton. But like everyone else, I can't see the future, maybe it will be 205 by friday tea-time. There are so many places to put your money though, why would you put it on a straight gamble on news?

[rayrac] 25/11/2019 13:27

It seems Orinduik..and by extension, Carapa, is all about heavy oil?...even Hammerhead. I don’t think Carapa will fail , but is it going to be more heavy stuff? Hopefully without so much sulphur!

[pro_s2009] 25/11/2019 10:28

Just remember, not all dead cats bounce........you cannot just buy into a crash and then post some charts and expect it to rise back up again.

Its hanging where it is now as Carapa well might save the day.........if Carapa comes in TLW will rebound a bit.

But remember, if Carapa fails this will fall further.

Charts aint got nothing to do with TLW now - its Carapa news - good or bad.

[pro_s2009] 25/11/2019 10:26

LOL.......

[master rsi] 25/11/2019 10:22

However...... everyone should know by now.... Pro_S2009 ... is a shorter

and today the fire is alight to BURN the lot in that territory

[daler1966] 25/11/2019 08:45

A lot of buying last week when AZVALOR and TLW director bought in ,

[spacedust] 25/11/2019 08:37

When the price went to 250p he could have sold and made some money but he didn't

[daler1966] 25/11/2019 08:15

Off to a good start ?

[stupmy] 25/11/2019 07:52

It seems to me that TLW should have been clearer about this in their own RNS rather than allowed this information to come out via third party channels. To me it raises further trust issues between management and shareholders.

[pro_s2009] 25/11/2019 07:46

.................However, the oil found by Tullow was found to be heavy crude which has a high sulphur content. Crude with high sulphur content is a variety of oil that is less economically viable than the light, sweet crudes found in the United States and Saudi Arabia, or even the oil found by ExxonMobil right offshore Guyana in the neighbouring Stabroek Block.

Both the Jethro and Joe wells were drilled in the Orinduik Block, which is located just a few kilometres from ExxonMobil’s discoveries. Despite the close proximity of the blocks, however, Exxon has not had the same issues with oil impurities.
In light of the latest analysis, Tullow said that it would weigh “the commercial viability of these discoveries considering the quality of the oil, alongside the high-quality reservoir sands and strong overpressure.”

[sbb1x] 25/11/2019 07:28

Debt levels keep going down.

[deanroberthunt] 25/11/2019 07:10

over 5% yield at these levels aswell

[master rsi] 24/11/2019 23:06

How DEBT is being decimated year after year

Actuals in M $ Estimates in M $
Fiscal Period
December     2016    2017    2018     2019(e)     2020(e)    2021(e)
Debt         4704    3471    3060      2823        2529       2273

[pro_s2009] 24/11/2019 20:25

Yep, he clearly says that Jethro/Joe are heavier oil than Hammerhead.

Now we are seeing reports of 12 API oil and 5% sulphur content in the media, can we expect TLW to now update the market with these results ?

Might be an update coming, unless they just want to let it go around the media for a few weeks before everything becomes immune to it, it gets priced in during those weeks, then report it later during an ops update.

[jimarilo] 24/11/2019 20:19

Not sure if this has been posted, Merrill's analyst asks John Hess

[alfiex] 24/11/2019 19:52

My bet is it will open down on monday

[master rsi] 24/11/2019 14:09

and the Brokers forecast Consensus is also POSITIVE

Strong Sell
(0 of 10)
Sell
(0 of 10)
Neutral
(5 of 10)
Buy
(1 of 10)
Strong Buy
(4 of 10)

[master rsi] 24/11/2019 13:45

The latest downgrades have a price target of 249p and 165p, well above the share price on Friday close 139.25p

14 November 2019
JP Morgan Cazenove today downgrades its investment rating on Tullow Oil PLC (LON:TLW) to neutral
(from overweight) and cut its price target to 249p (from 278p).

22 November 2019
Tullow Oil downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi Citi analyst Michael Alsford downgraded Tullow Oil
to Neutral from Buy with a price target of 165 pence.
The analyst sees limited visibility on the company's exploration program and risk of further negative
revisions on its Ghana production levels.

[xxnjr] 24/11/2019 12:14

One can always use the 'filter' button whites123!

[xxnjr] 24/11/2019 12:06

This is probably a more detailed table of crude grades than the one posted by pro.


5% on the high side. We could do with knowing %H2S, if present, in the associated gas stream. May need a flow test for that?.....

[captain james t kirk] 24/11/2019 10:07

"Sulfur is the most abundant element in petroleum after carbon and hydrogen."
I suppose that's why we call them hydrocarbons ?