Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[master rsi] 21/11/2019 17:07

Everything is pointing to a full bounce back from 2.30pm

Naturally, the OIl price recovery is helping
All the Indicators are at the bottom (oversold) and MACD is the first one showing doing the first movement UP as is RSI (20.06) second, normally is Stochastic first to show the move up, but not this time as it will be the last, by tomorrow will be over the 4.46 showing now

2 month chart with Indicators

[g2theary] 21/11/2019 15:51

I'd say ECO could double minimum where as it would be very difficult for TLW to do that but TLW won't completely collapse over Guyana. I hold both and optimistic especially for ECO. The debt here is an issue but they have hides it in the time I've been watching these dipping in and out. Guyana is tipped to be the hottest postcode for oil on the global map atm... I'd say both companies are a great buy at these prices but DYOR :) certainly for a higher risk double your money ECO and a lower risk 25% TLW :)

[rayrac] 21/11/2019 14:51

For the next month or so, Tullow and ECO are joined at the hip, imo. So take your pick.

[stupmy] 21/11/2019 12:06

Fraz, it's just a gap, which is just a lack of data on a chart, i.e. no buys or sells in that space. I have no idea what might fill that gap. But I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that a dry well on Carapa-1 might have wider consequences should Joe and Jethro be considered marginal (due to the heavy/sulphurous/acidic/metallic nature that has been suggested). Gaps have a tendency to fill, but no-one can really say when that might happen, at the current time share price is under pressure that makes the gap-fill much more likely on the back of bad news.

Here's your gap if you want to see it with your own eyes. I could only find one gap on the mthly chart and to be honest, such gaps are not common. The fact it's present on the monthly means that if your weekly/daily data go back far enough, you'll see it more clearly still.



From memory (it's no longer possible for me to see it on my weekly/daily charts, there is also a gap to the 130/135 area. Maybe somebody could check/confirm this.

The mthly chart also suggests potential supports around 134.5, 129.5 and 113.5 with a rising TL support currently at 131.

I'm not for one minute saying price will probably go there. I'm just pointing out that technically speaking there are reasons to believe that big buyers might get interested at these levels (113, 130, 135; or in an extreme scenario 85p). Remember, when I first suggested the possibility of 180 and 135, I was met with derision, but on the basis of my view of risk reward I'm not sitting on a bad investment.

[frazboy] 21/11/2019 11:13

Stumpy,'If it's good (light oil) the share price will likely move up a fair bit. If it's bad, there's a downside gap to about 85p'I'm no Chartist but I'm not sure which gap you're referring to. And, from a fundamental point of view were the next well to come in dry I think it very unlikely there would be more than, say, 5p of share price movement (think about it from the perspective of how the market is valuing the 15% share of the block Echo has). Were the share price to plumb those lows - I'm not saying it won't if the operational performance in Ghana should deteriorate significantly - then the remaining equity should retain a decent bit of value as option money on a significant boost in the oil price for whatever reason. In short, I don't see the price coming down that low anytime soon!

[xxnjr] 21/11/2019 10:45

Have to agree with that Stupmy. Anyway Whites seems rattled, despite the BS.

[rayrac] 21/11/2019 10:38

Rubbish, put some skin in the game! 85k shares is!

[stupmy] 21/11/2019 09:47

Whites, that was a dreadful and unnecessary post. Really appalling.

[wodahsnoom] 21/11/2019 09:36

xxnjr - in the interest of balance so did every other bleedin oil company w/d value of deferred exploration expenditure. From memory oil price went from USD 100 down to USD 32. I'm not defending the current management but just fed up with polarised positions of posters following their own agenda. I'm a holder and don't need to be reminded of the obvious downsides to this share.

[whites123] 21/11/2019 09:28

I really dont get you?

You post here almost incessantly yet have no skin in the game.

I have a small holding of 85,156 shares yet do not feel the need to even monitor TLW share price weekly yet alone by the minute..

TLW is a very successful international Oil Producer...

£1.40 is IMO extremely cheap, but I am biased.

Play the game, in out in out in out and shake it all about and proclaim how great you are, or like me and many many others, buy a few shares, sit back and wait for the rewards.

You are boring, you are tedious, you are however so great and brilliant I wish I was as successful as you.

AFRICA'S LEADING INDEPENDENT OIL COMPANY
Tullow Oil is a leading independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Group has interests in 80 exploration and production licences across 15 countries which are managed as three Business Teams: West Africa, East Africa and New Ventures.

[subsurface] 21/11/2019 09:20

add to the full story Rights Issue,and SPfrom over 15pounds down to 140p

[whites123] 21/11/2019 09:19

The pessimists (Non Holders) will do the very best to talk any stock down.
For those with skin in the stock, consider the company is profitable, is paying down debt, and even pays a divi...

Yes there is a "POSSIBILITY" the latest will not be put into production because of sulfur content, but equally it "COULD BE"..

Unlike exploration, Tullow is NOT a "Must find oil this drill" to survive..
Its a "PRODUCER"...

Jeeeeeeez...... Far far far more upside than downside here..

[xxnjr] 21/11/2019 08:58

In the interest of balance may we remind everyone Tullow has written off >$5bn in recent years! :)
Failed acquisitions, failed exploration, failed court cases and over promising.

[subsurface] 21/11/2019 08:56

Cut Staff levels and Bonus Scheems freeze pay ,add value with the drill bit and dont squander the cash,or get into legal disputes,

[wodahsnoom] 21/11/2019 08:50

In the interest of balance over that period of time TLW has become a profitable company generating enough cashflow to fund ongoing exploration, dividends and 300-400 mln annual debt reduction. So hsfinch, I agree with your sentiments but with most soundbites on these boards, it doesn't tell the entire story.

[hsfinch] 21/11/2019 08:33

A tale of 5 'fields' discovered by Tullow. TEN - was sub-commercial when sanctioned. And was sanctioned coz it had to be to maintain share price it's proved a commercial disaster. Zaydeus - the gusher that wasn't. Mega expensive well. share price shot up when announced. Then it wasn't economic. Jethro n Joe - nuff said. Lokichar - who knows?And all the while management has reaped huge rewards.

[stupmy] 21/11/2019 08:16

tradesmarter, like your charts and agree with your view. My only comment is that Carapa news is due sometime in December. That's a straight gamble. If it's good (light oil) the share price will likely move up a fair bit. If it's bad, there's a downside gap to about 85p. I feel we've crossed paths before on interactive investor?

[xxnjr] 21/11/2019 08:09

Ditching the CEO would help sentiment.
Need to bring someone in to get the debt down as a priority.

[tradesmarter] 20/11/2019 23:43

Taken a "punt" on these today and everything says its a screaming sell, but when everyone has sold and nobody left to sell, price should rise. Could be wrong but I think if 138 holds on closing levels then we test 150-156 and then we head for 180 (meaty resistance there and I have 165 as likely rebound area) or we fall back and could potentially test 117-120. My view is purely a trading punt with a tight stops a decent return could be had at these levels or a small loss.....

Long term weekly charts shows if history is any guide we are at "great value levels" to invest and for the patient "investor" a good return could be had by holding...also shows we are "due a bounce" (but could yet see 120...hence 135 stops and try again)

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Im "betting on" the 3 year low holding as support for now and will "bullish" as long as we close above 138

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


ALL the technical patters are bearish on the stock so the very best outcome in the short term would be 180....I'll be flexible on approach to 149/150 but think we could test 165 with a bit of luck soon

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Oversold to extreme levels now and even a dead cat bounces...my best guess

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


And finally IF we get lucky with some good news then this pattern worth reviewing....e.g only news will likely get us above key 180 resistance now

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[mcsean2164] 20/11/2019 19:05

Hope you took profit at £10+.

Shocking to think we are now lower than in 1998...🤯8565;😬ԅ56;

[onjohn] 20/11/2019 18:12

looks finished



remember buying these in the 80s at 15p

[subsurface] 20/11/2019 18:11

Carapa from Tullow
The Carapa well in the non-operated Kanuku licence, which is targeting the Cretaceous play is currently drilling. The well started at the end of October, with results expected before the year-end.
They did talk about 40days

[subsurface] 20/11/2019 17:19

Seems to be a double edged question If and how much Oil did they find? and what is its composition, the later seems to take an extra couple of months.

[costax1654x] 20/11/2019 16:57

When's Carapa results?