Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[spacedust] 29/11/2019 09:16

What s the dividend payment here

[deanroberthunt] 29/11/2019 09:01

moreover, you could endlessly wait for the bottom, never buying, then one day it rallies 30-40% over a few days weeks, and you've missed it.

[deanroberthunt] 29/11/2019 08:59

@Stumpy

Noone has a crystal ball, not even Buffet!
There isn't a signal on the chart that pops up and says "THIS IS THE BOTTOm FILL THOU BOOTS"

If you buy at 140p, and it falls to 100p, then over 10 yrs rebounds to 500p...does it matter...no one can predict the bottom or the top, it's not at what price you buy, it's what price you sell.

..and you also have the ability to reinvest the dividend at lower prices, or top up....to me, long term, I bought in at 139p....and see that as value

[abarclay] 29/11/2019 08:57

this fake rally
I don't trust it there is cost of abandoning the Ghana stuff too b e announced

[dealy] 29/11/2019 08:56

oil is very hard to find. The price is likely to rise significantly in the coming years. Tullow is undervalued

[deanroberthunt] 29/11/2019 08:55

They should buy some production with the fcf....a company like Faroe that got bought out, producing say 16-20kboepd.

[wodahsnoom] 29/11/2019 08:36

Stupmy, Agreed. Though what you are highlighting is two different trading styles. Long term on the basis that true value will eventually be realised or short term trading where entry points are much more important.

The problem with TLW both long term and short term is the market has lost faith in the management team - operationally they are all over the place in Ghana, and strategically they are not at the races in Uganda/Kenya. As a result, they were hesitant to disclose further bad news in Guyana. If this is not true, it is the market perception which is all that matters.

[stupmy] 29/11/2019 08:20

It is important to keep the bigger picture in focus, but you still have to decide what is a good entry, i.e. make an attempt to understand what is likely to happen to price in the short term. If you believe that the company is rock solid and that the share price does not represent it's true value, then you could enter according to your own way of viewing things. But if the price goes down in the meantime you're in the uncomfortable position of watching your money evaporate. For example 'Whites' (on filter) stated a few days ago in a dreadful post that was aimed at bigging himself up told us he'd made a small investment of 85,000 shares in TLW with an entry somewhere between 140/144 (from memory). He stated that he really doesn't care what happens to the share price as it's a small trade and he clearly has faith the share price will rise (unspecified time frame). He also stated that since he has 'skin in the game' then his view holds value, whereas those that don't (waiting on the sidelines for an appropriate entry perhaps) should not post. The price is currently 134. That's potentially a 10p or 7% drop equating to paper losses of 8,500 pounds. The bottom may or may not be in. The basic truth is that it was a bad entry. Had Whites waited, he could have bought 7% more shares for his money and should the rise he hopes for materialise, he'd have larger profits. You're right that the bigger picture with respect to the true value of the company is important, but price and time should govern your entries.

[stupmy] 28/11/2019 13:59

For the moment (v short term) it seems to be trying to hold onto 135. There is even a bullish divergence on the 1433 stochs and RSI. I personally wouldn't buy anything until a minimum of price crossing the short term descending tl resistance (currently 138ish on 2h chart; draw it for yourselves on whatever charting software you have). Master RSI showed some charts with bottoming scenario, and how that could pan out in the future, a few days ago, that isn't necessarily out of play yet. Out of hours news that moved the share price against your view is a risk so holding overnight or over the weekend would be best done with guaranteed stops (or a nappy).

[xxnjr] 28/11/2019 12:54

IV £2.22, however above DCF analysis has this as an additional factor to consider:

"For Tullow Oil, I've put together three important factors you should further examine:
Financial Health: Does TLW have a healthy balance sheet?"
We all know the answer to that. A rather large elephant in the room.

[technowiz] 28/11/2019 11:11

instrinsic value £2.22



dyor

[mariopeter] 28/11/2019 11:10

Falling turnover and high debt will have the share price killed by the market as it raises existential fears. Need to get Ghana sorted and they will. Infill drilling in Ghana has been surprisingly poor in the last 6 months. West Africa is flying but Jubilee and TEN are seriously below par.

Gallivanting around the world seems a waste of dividends and debt repayment. Acquisitions might be better indeed. Will come back if the pants get too heavy here like the oil in Guyana!

[rayrac] 28/11/2019 10:37

JOSEKL, Irish punters!

Wild.

[xxnjr] 28/11/2019 10:36

Needs new management here. The sooner the CEO leaves the better. Been over promising and under delivering for years. If it were down to me I'd fire the CEO and cancel his pension benefits. OK, he's been here a long time but at the same time has failed to deliver for long suffering shareholders. share price about 40% down over last 15 years, 84% off the high a few years back.

[cesna] 28/11/2019 10:12

Some shorts this morning. Expect they close today or tomorrow morning and back to 136, 137 or 138 ...

[pally12] 28/11/2019 10:06

How is the this was trading happily at at about 1.80 before news on well so surely if they had not made a discovery this should not have fallen below that if the well is a duster they would still be at 1.80ish like they had never made that discovery

[stupmy] 28/11/2019 10:01

SP is nudging past it's previous low of 135.5. From the weekly chart 134.4 might act as a weak support, but I doubt it. If price went below that the weekly suggests 113.5. Don't forget the gap also. The monthly chart gives a potential rising tl support starting before 2000, then 2016 (113.5) to what would now be 131 area (rising each month). Also possible weak supports around 129 (really weak). Personally don't think it's worth buying until the fall is over. But we all see things differently I guess.

[j0sekl] 27/11/2019 19:25

Tullow is a volatile name and it will oversell because the majority of its punters are short term and are speculators.

[alfiex] 27/11/2019 16:22

Usual end of day push down you were right pally12

[wodahsnoom] 27/11/2019 15:18

Unfortunately as many have said recently, Carapa has become far more important than it should be and that's down to the incompetent communications ( or lack of it) by TLW. The fact is there are too many negative surprises coming from TLW in the last 12 months and the big players don't trust them.

[pally12] 27/11/2019 15:02

See this turning soon

[spacedust] 27/11/2019 14:09

At what price though ????

[xxnjr] 27/11/2019 12:57

OK. Got it. That makes sense cjtk.