Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[carlosalberto70] 04/11/2019 15:48

Don't know if this has been posted before … but of interest.

"Canaccord further stated that Shell’s Abary-1 well, drilled in 1975 on what is now Repsol’s Kanuku Block, had oil and gas shows starting at a depth of 2,978 m. It noted that the well also demonstrated the presence of moveable hydrocarbons and a good seal."

All sounds very encouraging, and hopefully Repsol/Tullow have a
firmer idea of where best to drill in the intervening 40+ years.

hxxps://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2019/10/29/exxonmobil-encountering-sizeable-gas-resources-report/

[rayrac] 04/11/2019 14:17

That’s encouraging ifthe! I’m interested in quite a lot of ECO and Tullow stock.

[ifthecapfits] 04/11/2019 10:16

Nicked from the ECO thread, as relevant.

UPDATED research from Hannam & partners just out

Eco Atlantic Oil and Gas
Upping our discovered reserve and undiscovered
resource estimates for recent success
Increasing our risked NAV to 295p/sh: 120% upside to the current share price
Despite significant exploration success, Eco’s share price has come down
recently on lack of news flow, in our view. Following the recent updates on
Guyana, we are increasing our risked NAV to 295p/sh from 216p/sh, as a result
of increases to our existing discovered resource estimates, as well as including
new exploration prospects, leading to >100% upside to our risked NAV. We are
increasing our discovered resource estimates to 69mmboe net to Eco from
56mmboe, based on further data on Hammerhead and Jethro. We are
maintaining our risking and US$5.2/boe estimate, which results in a risked
value of 85p/sh up from 68p/sh for the discoveries. We have added 5 new
Tertiary aged prospects, which we estimate to have 1.1bnboe of gross unrisked
prospective resource, based off our evaluation of their areal extents. These
prospects are worth 61p/sh risked or >£3.50/sh unrisked. We expect Eco to
release a new CPR including discoveries and new prospects in Q1’20.
Increases to discovered resource at Hammerhead and Jethro
Hammerhead is a major discovery made by Exxon/Hess on the Stabroek Block,
which extends onto the Orinduik Block. Eco believes ~10% of Hammerhead
could lie on its block and Hammerhead could be 400-800mmboe gross. Eco’s
last CPR (prior to the appraisal wells) only gave credit for 2mmboe net to Eco
and we have increased this to 9mmboe based on 600mmboe gross, with 10%
on the Orinduik block following the positive appraisal results reported by
Hess/Exxon. This gives a risked value of 12p/sh or 19p/sh unrisked. On Jethro,
we are upping the estimated recoverable resource estimate to 250mmboe from
215mmboe to reflect the results exceeding the partners’ pre-drill expectations.
This gives a risked value of 46p/sh or 81p/sh unrisked. The pre-drill estimate
for Jethro was 215mmboe in the CPR on a P50 basis or 340mmbbl on a P10
basis. In the P10 case, using an NPV of US$5/bbl, the discovery is worth
>US$250mm net to Eco on an unrisked basis.
New Tertiary exploration prospects, derisked by Jethro and Joe
Eco has recently released a new exploration map, which contains a large
number of new prospects that weren’t in the original CPR published in March
2019. At that time the Tertiary play was only just starting to be understood,
following the Hammerhead discovery, so there were only a few prospects that
were included. The new map contains 8 new prospects of which 7 are Tertiary
– we have included the largest 5 of these in our valuation. The Tertiary play has
been heavily de-risked by the Hammerhead, Jethro and Joe discoveries. There
are now 20 identified exploration prospects on the block, some of which are
very low risk such as Jimmy and Jethro Extension, as they are potentially part
of the existing discoveries. However, the other Tertiary prospects on the block
are likely to have a high chance of success also, given the clear seismic
definition and the calibration from the past discoveries.
Appraisal and further exploration to come: unrisked value of £17/sh
Our risked NAV is 295p/sh, based on a flat long-term oil price of US$70/bbl
and a 12% discount rate, on the basis of which we calculate an average NPV of
US$5.2/boe for the resources in Guyana. The unrisked value of all the Guyana
prospects and discoveries is around £17/sh. Eco also continues to advance
exploration and value creation on its four Namibian offshore blocks, where it is
seeing increased inbound interest and drilling activity in the region. Eco is a
lean organisation with a highly experienced management team, has a proven
track record of exercising farm-outs, is fully funded for its current planned
activity and beyond, has an early mover advantage in its blocks, and we think
management would sell for the right price.

[oilretire] 04/11/2019 09:58

Agreed, lets get out or vastly reduce the East Africa folio.

Meanwhile in Ghana, this brief comment from Kosmos this morning

Ghana

During the third quarter of 2019, net production from Ghana averaged approximately 31,500 barrels of oil per day (bopd). As forecast, Kosmos lifted three cargoes from Ghana during the third quarter. The Jubilee gas enhancement work program originally scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2019 has been deferred by the operator to the first quarter of 2020.

[subsurface] 04/11/2019 09:40

I put that too them last year with a letter to IR it would be my prefered option too but Africa seems to be in the Tullow mind set,and Kenya and Uganda keep dragging the company down,Ghana And Guyana and the none operated production would be much better

[rayrac] 04/11/2019 09:31

I’d rather they disposed from their African assets than Guyana sub.

[subsurface] 04/11/2019 08:54

Hi Rayrac,
I think it will happen at some point Tullow have 60% I Orinduik,we need this block proved up and in production in a good time frame 3 to 4 years the Tullow share price has gone nowhere in the last year,after two discoveries. Do you think Tullow have the funds?they are also occupied with Ghana,Uganda and Kenya and debt issues

[rayrac] 04/11/2019 07:45

And you suggest they farm down from that?!!

[rayrac] 04/11/2019 07:43

Esso...


The company announced that it would begin production next month at its massive new megaproject in the South American nation of Guyana, earlier than an anticipated 2020 startup. Guyana is one of several areas where Exxon is investing new sums to boost growth and returns in the future.

[subsurface] 03/11/2019 13:32

AFrica news Ghana




I think Tullow is trapped in a cycle of low oil prices /free cash flow, failure to meet production targets, Tax issues in Uganda and Kenya
They should farm down Guyana to ToTal/QP and let Total be the lead operator.

[subsurface] 01/11/2019 21:35

A good article here bringing into focus Guyana and both ends of the spectrum in Africa
Ghana and Uganda

[xxnjr] 01/11/2019 11:43

Good morning Carlos,

On a positive note Apache have taken up those two drill slot options. OTOH that Steve guy has resigned. CEO said "well we had to have a conversation, and at the end of that conversation Steve resigned", or words to that effect. CEO seemed to be at pains to suggest this had nothing to do with Suriname. CEO also seemed impressed with Doug Leggate (BofAmerica analyst) most recent analysis despite his research apparently suggesting they were going to find gas/condensate if HC's were found!

The call transcript is now on Seeking Alpha. Bit more detail/colour in there.

[carlosalberto70] 01/11/2019 09:58

Good morning xxnjr,

I too have just listened to that webcast, and a couple of things I took away from it.

1) When asked what they have found so far in Maka, he responded
"We are now in the shallower targets, and the only thing I will say is that
we have not seen anything that would be unexpected"
My take is that they were targeting/expecting oil and therefore have found oil.
But then maybe I am just an eternal optermist !

2) They are targeting of the 2 Cretaceous plays (and someone else chipped in
"Nice thick section") they spudded 24th Sept, and with Haimara taking 5 weeks
from spud to reporting with slightly less depth, I would suggest we will be hearing
Maka news very soon. i.e. certainly before Carapa which started a month later.
Albeit being 100 miles to the west of Maka.

[subsurface] 31/10/2019 21:44

Thanks Billy, They were talking about 40 day drilling for Carapa.
It will be interesting to see what happens in Suriname block 58 Tullow have interests in blocks 47,52 and 62 Tullow plan to drill in 2020 as per the exploration programme not sure which block yet.
Kenya news

Hope they can produce on time.

[rayrac] 31/10/2019 16:39

Shallow drill billy! Sooner result rather than later...

[carlosalberto70] 31/10/2019 09:31

With the lack of any more TLW news ……
Some info from just across the border in Surinam - from Apache Q3 results
Apache Maka drilling on Block 58 just 12 miles south of Exxon gas condensate discovery earlier this year at Haimara, in Guyana.

Suriname – Apache is currently drilling the Maka Central #1 well and expects to reach total depth in November at approximately 6,325 meters as measured from the deck of the drillship. The well is designed to test multiple targets and is located roughly seven miles from the Suriname / Guyana maritime border. Apache also exercised its option to drill two additional wells in Suriname Block 58 with the Noble Sam Croft drillship.

[billy_buffin] 31/10/2019 09:02

SS: Repsol being tight lipped up to now...

Pretty sure drilling well under way as followed rig being towed there and arrived around 15th Oct. Currently usual couple OSV's around the drill site plus the rig on marinetraffic.com

(Below latest but are same dates for Valaris end of July Status Report)

Valaris rig status report dated 25/10/2019
Contract Carapa-1 Valaris (Ensco)
VALARIS JU-144 (EXL II)
Repsol contract - Guyana Oct. 19 to Nov. 19 for one well

Have doubts on that Nov 19th date being met.

[lairddavid] 31/10/2019 07:55

Sorry wrong thread.

[subsurface] 30/10/2019 21:37

UK a Nip in the air,completed my migration to warmer pastures,
Guyana, Good to see the production / money flow ahead of the March elections.
Does anyone know if Carapa drilling has started? no news on Repsol website or Tullow RNS

[billy_buffin] 30/10/2019 19:17

Thought so...

[rayrac] 29/10/2019 23:29

The chart is in a strong up trend...Carapa hopefully will boost it much higher.

The thread title will have a significant meaning!

[rayrac] 29/10/2019 14:09

I’ve got him on filter Stupmy. Wise move I think!

Carapa, would Tullow let us know the result, one way or tother? Or do they act like a major? Perhaps it would come from ECO!

[stupmy] 28/10/2019 13:57

eagle, why are you pushing so hard for PTAL? You've mentioned it, given us the 'heads up', but you continue to push. What is the reason for this and please don't tell me it is because you don't want us to miss out on the opportunity, the initial 'heads up' would have covered that. Why not now stick to the relevant board.

[billy_buffin] 28/10/2019 12:03

Found a geological bloggers musings on Guyana/Suriname prospects



(Rarely ventured below the sub surface safety valve so all a 'black art' to me)