Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 17/9/2019 02:38

More Wells. Appraisal to do and, If you look at slide 3 on the Jethro Presentation we have two oportunities to test 3 prospects with one drill.

Black tip ,Amaila,Kumaka or
Aurituk (the Hammerhead extension) ,Mako and Latuk,
All eyes on Kanuku and Suriname block 58 Apache, to bring the year to a close.

[alfiex] 16/9/2019 18:08

The 3 billion dividend sounds good to me! But never forget this is Tullow you are talking about.

[xxnjr] 16/9/2019 16:37

Good point about Trump/Elections SS. Donald's 'Maximum Pressure' Iran policy has backfired in a spectacular way. This is all Aramco have said so far


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UT 2.6M @ 241P

[subsurface] 16/9/2019 16:21

All the Gulf countries must be very worried by this event not only does it remove Oil production it could also remove Trump. Elections next year he wants the POO under control.

[xxnjr] 16/9/2019 16:13

I'm sure you are correct BB. (Anyway why would you need LNG in the middle of SA?) The damage to the (oil by the look of it) 'processing trains' looks quite extensive in this photo.....



Not an easy repair I'd wager.

[billy_buffin] 16/9/2019 15:58

I see no insulation but bare metal on those spheres!I think lpg storage at pressure. I question the drawing! In any event what can they do with the breaches on the vessel walls? Patch them? There are however undamaged spheres available for storage

[xxnjr] 16/9/2019 15:46

The 'Processing Trains' NW orientation in the photo (not geographical NW) have also taken direct hits, by the look of it. Seems more like a surgical strike - very accurate.

[xxnjr] 16/9/2019 15:34

BB - Those are labelled 'LNG Storage Tanks' in p5 of

[billy_buffin] 16/9/2019 15:14

xx Custom made: Like the massive 4 spheres that were breached (LPG storage?)

[billy_buffin] 16/9/2019 14:42

Afirms more wells

[subsurface] 16/9/2019 14:02

a very happy and excited Gil

[xxnjr] 16/9/2019 13:33

Not all of it will be off the shelf? Some of it will be custom made I guess.

[mx5richard] 16/9/2019 13:31

I was thinking sell and buy back tomorrow now not sure

[billy_buffin] 16/9/2019 13:30

From the damage observed it appears that the Abqaiq strike was surgically planned and not a random attack affair. It was designed to cause maximum delay to re-instatement of normal operations. No evidence available as to the state of long lead time items such as shipping pumps and compressors which would add to delay.

[subsurface] 16/9/2019 13:29

you just beat me to it xx ,starting to look easy!

[xxnjr] 16/9/2019 13:25

And another

[xxnjr] 16/9/2019 12:00

Vaalco Energy planning to dual list in London.

[xxnjr] 16/9/2019 11:41

Berenberg [AV]

The partners have not provided a resource estimate for the new discovery, although we note that a competent person’s report (CPR) by Gustavson Associates from Eco Atlantic had estimated a gross recoverable resource (P50) of 148mboe. The partners are evaluating additional thinner sands above and below the main pay for possible incremental pay. While a gross oil column of 14m is not big and compares with 55m at Jethro, we note that the aerial extent of Joe was also significantly larger than Jethro based on the CPR. We therefore add Joe as a 100 mboe prospect to our NAV, risked at 50%.

We assume Jethro is a 250mboe discovery, making it large enough for a standalone commercial development. In this scenario, smaller discoveries can be used as tie-back developments, lowering commerciality threshold.

The partners will now focus on assessing full results of the two exploration wells, as well as on understanding resource upside from the extension of Exxon’s Hammerhead discovery onto Orinduik before selecting the next prospect to be drilled in 2020. We expect more colour on recoverable resource potential of the two discoveries.

We expect Tullow to farm out part of its 60% interest in the Orinduik ahead of a commercial development in order to optimise capital allocation. We estimate that selling half of its stake could raise c$1bn, a substantial amount relative to its net debt of $2.9bn. We note that Qatar Petroleum could be a potential buyer after its recent farm-in to the block.

Our price target implies 2019E/20E EV/EBITDAX of 5.5x/5.0x. We believe a premium valuation is justified due to potential sell-down of Tullow’s stake in the Orinduik block.

[xxnjr] 16/9/2019 11:39

Investec [AV]

All is not lost at $60 Brent! In fact, sector fundamentals remain robust with the sector arguably operationally leaner than ever before, generating significant FCF and distributing dividends. Tullow’s discovery in Guyana has shown that transformational discoveries can still be made and valuations remain attractive with the sector generally still trading at an average c.20% discount to RENAV. As a result we maintain our constructive bias. However headwinds remain. Investors remain wary of the volatile oil price, while the general negative sentiment towards oil stocks is still present.

sector fundamentals still robust - The majority of balance sheets across our coverage have now recovered, to the extent that they can now survive a $40-50/bbl world. FCF generation remains broadly positive and significant across the sector, with margins wide and they continue to operate in a low cost environment. Importantly E&P companies are distributing dividends again, an important step for shareholders, as it begins to demonstrate the sector’s confidence in the sustainability of its FCF profiles. Valuations remain undemanding. The sector continues to trade at an average c.20% discount to our RENAV’s. We expect to see multiple transformational catalysts in the sector in H2, with asset sales, farm-downs, FID’s, project start-ups and high impact exploration set to move the needle. These events could be the catalyst the sector needs to finally re-rate.

Upgrades and downgrades: We upgrade Tullow Oil to Buy. In our view, Guyana success has already materially changed the outlook for the company and there is still potential upside. We expect the company to monetise part of its stake in country and this could be the catalyst to finally solve the balance sheet issue that still lingers in the background. We downgrade SOCO to Sell, as we see the company stuck in limbo. The company’s FCF outlook is limited and our concern is that future growth requires significant spend to convert 2C resources into 2P reserves. This in our view puts the dividend that underpins the stock at risk

High conviction in... Premier (TP 110p), Seplat (TP 205p), Tullow (TP 250p). Premier remains well positioned to delever through 2019/20 and the potential sale of its Zama asset could be the catalyst for a re-rating that has long been on the horizon. Seplat is now investing in long term growth and we see significant FCF generation beyond 2020 and the scope for rising shareholder distributions, which continues to underpin our constructive thesis. Tullow’s potential basin opening exploration success in Guyana can pave a new path for the company and a potential farm-down could finally fix its lingering balance sheet issue.

[xxnjr] 16/9/2019 11:00

Rome wasn't built in a day! Heading in the right direction now. A couple of soil samples already taken. One to follow.

[mcsean2164] 16/9/2019 10:39

"as we continue to unlock the multi-billion barrel potential of this acreage."

Some really crude figures.

Assume cost of extraction $40 and poo $50. Profit $10 per barrel.

Assume 2 billion barrels recoverable. Tullow owns 60%, thus profit of $12 billion.

These figures are pretty conservative. Shouldn't share price be higher?

[frontdoor bull] 16/9/2019 10:05

16/09/2019 7:00am
UK Regulatory (RNS & others)

TIDMTLW TIDMTTM TIDMTTM

RNS Number : 3623M

Tullow Oil PLC

16 September 2019

News Release

THIS PRESS RELEASE CONTAINS INSIDE INFORMATION

Joe-1 oil discovery

16 September 2019 - Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) announces that the Joe-1 exploration well has successfully opened a new Upper Tertiary oil play in the Guyana basin.

The Joe-1 exploration well was drilled by the Stena Forth drillship to a Total Depth of 2,175 metres in water depth of 780 metres. Evaluation of logging and sampling data has confirmed that Joe-1 has encountered 14 metres of net oil pay in high-quality oil bearing sandstone reservoirs of Upper Tertiary age. Joe is the first oil discovery to be made in the Upper Tertiary and de-risks the petroleum system in the west of the Orinduik block, where a significant number of Tertiary and Cretaceous age prospects have been identified.

Tullow and its Partners will now evaluate data from the Joe-1 discovery alongside data from the Jethro-1 discovery announced in August 2019 and await the outcome of the Carapa well to determine the optimal follow-on exploration and appraisal programme.

The non-operated Carapa-1 well on the Kanuku licence (Tullow 37.5%) is scheduled to commence drilling in late September with the Rowan EXL II jack-up rig and will test the Cretaceous oil play with a result due in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Joe-1 was drilled on the Orinduik licence, offshore Guyana by Tullow's wholly owned subsidiary Tullow Guyana B.V.

Tullow Guyana B.V. is the operator of the Orinduik block with a 60% stake. Total E&P Guyana B.V. holds 25% with the remaining 15% being held by Eco (Atlantic) Guyana Inc. On completion of operations, the Stena Forth drill ship will depart Guyana and return to Ghana.

Angus McCoss, Exploration Director, commented today:

"I am very pleased that we have made back-to-back discoveries in Guyana and successfully opened a new, shallower play in the Upper Tertiary age of the Guyana basin with our second well. The Joe-1 discovery and its surrounding prospects represent another area of significant potential in the Orinduik Block and we are greatly looking forward to the next phase of the programme as we continue to unlock the multi-billion barrel potential of this acreage."

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:



Tullow Oil Murray Consultants
plc (Dublin)
(London) (+353 1 498
([phone])
9000) Pat Walsh
Julia Ross Joe Heron
Nicola Rogers
George Cazenove
Notes to Editors

Tullow Oil plc

Tullow is a leading independent oil & gas, exploration and production group, quoted on the London, Irish and Ghanaian stock exchanges (symbol: TLW). The Group has interests in 80 exploration and production licences across 15 countries which are managed as three business delivery teams: West Africa, East Africa and New Ventures

[rayrac] 16/9/2019 10:03

we are greatly looking forward to the next phase of the programme as we continue to unlock the multi-billion barrel potential of this acreage.”