Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 25/9/2019 11:16

Good post Stupmy. Charting has changed quite a bit. Way back then I used to update every chart in the FTSE100 on a daily basis with nothing more than 100 sheets of graph paper, pencil, ruler, and the back pages of the FT for price information. Used to do the daily 20/50/200 MA calculations for 100 shares in my head. The internet didn't exist. These days it's all available at the touch of a button! Appreciate the steer on oil prices, as well as your rationale regarding workings of the market, share price movements, gaps etc etc. Algorithms seem to be running things these days.

[stupmy] 25/9/2019 10:46

xxnjr, don't think it's real. I think once the technical aspects of this have played out and those that have believed in them have made money, POO will come back up. I mentioned in a previous post how fickle the newsflow is. One day bearish, the next bullish. It doesn't make any sense that 'reality' changes that fast. It shows a lack of confidence in the views of the so-called experts. An influential call one way with apparently strong logical arguments, is often followed by the analysis of those who don't have the capacity for confidence in their ability to consider things independently according to factual data. It's all compounded by the nuances of the fundamental position. For example, calls that Saudi can't get supply back on line in a week or two, then someone points out (suggests) that Saudi have 180million barrels stored. Just one of many examples, the situation is so nuanced that no-one can call it precisely. My view is that POO (WTI) bottomed at 27ish (monthly data), has put in a higher low around 42 (monthly data) and that it won't fall much below 46/47 now (I'm not suggesting it will reach that point), and that once this technical issue (data gaps) is resolved and a new low is formed (above 46/47) then price will rise back to 74 area. There will be lots of news in the meantime that surprises those that try to work out the fundamentals. The advantage you guys have if you're good at the fundamental side (and I suspect some of you are) is that you can have confidence in your trades, hold through weakness (if you're not using stops/TA) and if you manage your pots well, add at swing lows in price. My guess is that over time, you will be right that TLW is worth more than it's current share price

[xxnjr] 25/9/2019 10:16

Cheers Stupmy. Mind the gap! Quite remarkable how weak OP is considering Saudi attack, Libya self destruct, Venezuela implode, OPEC+ reductions and Iran sanctions. Without that lot where would we be..... $35/bbl perhaps?

Nothing more to add about Uganda or Guyana from Total NY Investor Day. Only good news was low rate of industry FID's in 2015/16/17 means oil market may tighten in 2022/23/24.

[stupmy] 25/9/2019 08:37

For those interested. Here's a 2 hour chart with gaps. share price gapped down today. Price may move up in the short term to around 220, then I personally think there is a good chance it will move to the downside to fill the gap to 180. I've mentioned this view before. Nothing is certain, but for me there is obvious downside risk from a techical perspective. That is supported by the data gaps on POO which I also think will close sooner rather than later.

[subsurface] 25/9/2019 08:08

Morning Gents ,
Yes Trumps been doing that for a while, I wonder why?
The Total show is running now

[stupmy] 25/9/2019 07:40

I still hold to what I suggested in the post below. POO (Brend) is quite likely to drop to around 60 with WTI dropping to 55.5. Those figures are just closure of data gaps on the charts. When data gaps close, price often overshoots.

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18 Sep '19 - 07:39 - 35055 of 35111
POO could drop further to close the gap on the charts. Statements like that of Prince Abdulaziz feed these type of movements. Other 'optimistic' views also likely to air until that gap closes. At that point, it would be well worth trying to figure out where the true value lies. Quite possibly POO will move north again. Interesting times. Seasonally we should see demand rise into winter.

[xxnjr] 25/9/2019 07:14

Me too SS. The audio was not unavailable last night, but will be later, so my comments above just my takeaway from the slides. Maybe some Analyst Q's on Uganda in the audio?

I can't help thinking Trump is using twitter comments on China Trade Talks to manipulate the OP down.

[subsurface] 24/9/2019 23:50

Africa Oil & Power conference October 9 -11



Some good
interviews from saudi and a damage report



Price of Oil down I think once reserves stockpiles comes under pressure we will see an uplift.

[xxnjr] 24/9/2019 23:40

Some takeaways from Total's annual NY Investor Day



Slide 28 they see Jethro + Jethro Channel as one body, all of which is coloured green as an oil discovery.

Slide 28 Carapa still looks big. I reckon it's potentially 500mmboe rather than the 200mmboe guidance from TLW (assuming oil found).

Slide 30 they see Ghana as a 140Kboepd asset. Tullow keep telling us the same asset is 160Kboepd, or even potentially 180Kboepd. I no longer believe TLW's higher target projection.

[subsurface] 24/9/2019 15:25

Guyana: CGX Energy contracts PGS to acquire 3D survey in Corentyne Block offshore Guyana.

[bootycall] 24/9/2019 12:12

The way everyone is virtue signalling to the climate change Lobby..ownership of oil reserves will shortly transfer to private equity companies and despotic states. Can you imagine what would happen if E Warren was elected in the US ? Would the Democrats allow shale companies to produce ,with or without environmental carbon taxes...or would the Texas Railroad Commission be able to allow continuous flaring practices. We are about as popular as a Jeremy Corbyn at a Brexit Party rally right now. I suspect quoted cos will go private, rationalise or perhaps a mass consolidation as we approach peak oil, Saudis are not stupid they see the writing for peak oil is close...we are just arguing about which year this time. Just like the inevitable slow demise of the tobacco industry, there is plenty of money still to be made buying shares in oil companies. Maybe the industry will use more bonds and less equity instruments. With current interest rates it is a shift that makes sense.

[alfiex] 24/9/2019 10:22

Back to where we were before Saudi attack and oil spike and Joe find, despite oil still being up 4 dollars a barrel :-(

[billy_buffin] 24/9/2019 09:09

What's going on...

[quantiumresearch] 23/9/2019 20:09

We discussed TLW in our pre-market podcast last Monday. If you're interested, you can listen to it here:

hxxps://quantiumresearch.co.uk/podcast/episode/bb2743fc/quantium-cast-episode-33-spire-healthcare-premier-oil-and-tullow-oil

[mcsean2164] 23/9/2019 19:16

Bit harsh on Varadkar, there's been remarkably little oil found around Ireland so it's handy for Varadkar to promise that. Ireland is the highest growth nation in the EU, we keep on busting all the agreed co2 emissions due to that growth. That whole framework is silly and should have a growth component but it doesn't so he can spout some nonsense to appease the environmental groups.

It is stupid as it'd be more environmentally friendly to refine our own diesel / petrol but heh, there you go, election coming up soon...

[badger36] 23/9/2019 17:19

Leo Varadkar is an embarrassing specimen and all he is doing is hot air to love the greenies and on his way to a UN climate change conference and the irony is all the attendees are generating carbon to tell the ordinary folk to change their habits. Hypocrisy par excellence

[frontdoor bull] 23/9/2019 16:05

Taoiseach says Ireland to phase out oil exploration off coast (via @IrishTimes)

[xxnjr] 23/9/2019 10:57

Bit of a tussle on the OP. Saudi vs Slowing Growth Europe and elsewhere.

[billy_buffin] 23/9/2019 10:34

SS: No response to the re-naming to date. Am watching time to time 'Bourbon Calm' supposed to be Rig OSV.

"The Valaris JU-144 jack up drilling rig—formerly the Rowan EXL II—will drill the Cretaceous Carapa prospect, partner Tullow Oil PLC said in a late June operations update."

[mccracken227] 23/9/2019 10:23

Billy, Rowan Exl11 is it now known as (VALARIS JU-144) ? Not sure if you can track this?

[subsurface] 23/9/2019 09:01

Expert? Thanks for the kind words,I will have to watch what I write now!

[xxnjr] 23/9/2019 08:26

Good to have your expert knowledge SS.