Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[carlosalberto70] 28/9/2019 16:13

It may have been pointed out already, if so, apologies.

But in the interview Gil mentioned valuation of ECO discovered oil ( Jethro + Joe + Hammerhead ) @ $450m using $8/barrel, and that Joe had just under 100mmb in place.
Therefore 450/8 = 56.25mb to ECO / 0.15 = 375mmb total discovered barrels.
so 375 - 90 Joe - 10 for Hamm = 275mmb for Jethro which is way over the 215 Best Estimate in the CPR.

And therefore by extension $ 2,500mm to TLW. Goes a long way to wipe out that debt.

Also after re-listening to the interview I might have answered my own question.
To get from 800mmb in the Tertiary from last CPR to over 2bn now, he said 'we are now looking to include other horizons within the Upper Tertiary.'
So we have not been told the whole story on Joe or Jethro yet.
But still a huge jump.

However it doesn't explain the drop in the Cretaceous from 3.2bn to 2bn ???

[xxnjr] 28/9/2019 11:32

Competitor website I guess. Anyway
New ECO CPR coming in about 2 months.

[carlosalberto70] 28/9/2019 11:08

Don't know why it wont copy the link.

But just have a look at the PA website.

[carlosalberto70] 28/9/2019 11:02

Here you go :-

[...]

[xxnjr] 28/9/2019 10:52

XOM have submitted their EIA for Payara FPSO 1. Processing capacities are

Oil production: 220,000 BOPD
Produced water: 215,000 BPD
Total liquids: 270,000 BPD
Produced gas: 395 MMscfd
Gas injection: 365 MMscfd
(assumes 30 MMscfd of produced gas will be used as fuel gas for the FPSO)
Water injection: 250,000 BPD

Compare that to Jubilee initial design rates:

Oil production: 120,000 BOPD
Produced water: 230,000 BPD
Produced gas: 160 MMscfd

Payara GOR seems relatively high? Surely they will have to come up with a long term solution for the gas that's no longer in solution?

[xxnjr] 28/9/2019 10:19

Have not heard interview.
Gil's a bs'ingly good salesman?
Sounds like TLW's numbers?
TLW have about 4bn gross over both blocks.
2.5bn of the 4bn is on Orinduik.
About 55% of 4bn is tertiary.
Only 2 wells drilled.
Really needs more wells.

[carlosalberto70] 28/9/2019 09:05

Can someone explain the difference between Gil Holzman's statement in the Proactive interview that they now have 2bn GPR in the Tertiary and 2bn in the Cretaceous,
as opposed to the March 19 CPR which indicates 800 T / 3200 C ratio of the 4bn on page 93 ?

Does this mean they have new preliminary CPR data ?
Am I missing something ?

Would be grateful for some insight.

CA70

[xxnjr] 28/9/2019 00:00

Still no news on Bourbon Rhode and 14 crew.
Hope they are safe.

[stupmy] 27/9/2019 13:29

Brent making new lows (currently at 60), it's likely that without company specific good news, TLS share price will fall towards the next gap. That would close at about 211. PMO being hit (also has a gap to 71.75 area), perhaps that's being hit more due to worries about funding for it's Alaskan activities. Might an interesting period.

[mccracken227] 27/9/2019 12:03

Rayrac perhaps it's the 3 billion debt that is holding them back.

[rayrac] 27/9/2019 10:36

‘Fire fighting vessel’? That seems bullish to me, they’d only get that out there if there were a oil problem.

It’s seems strange to me, that ECO is always mentioned as a t/o target. But TLW have 60% of Orinduik and 37% of the adjoining block, but not much comment about the ‘big boys’, looking at TLW...other than in the header!

A raging candidate for t/o.

Especially on a strike at Carapa!

[xxnjr] 27/9/2019 10:25

Bourbon Rhode could be the 2nd OSV. En-route from Las Palmas - GY:GEO ETA 2019-10-03 02:00 . Only thing is it's classified as "Fire Fighting Vessel" and currently in difficulty due to Hurricane Lorenzo in mid-Atlantic.

[rayrac] 27/9/2019 09:33

Price of oil?

[rayrac] 27/9/2019 09:30

Some of you guys are looking in the wrong place. It’s about Guyana ffs, Carapa will be the icing on the cake...if they hit!

[stupmy] 26/9/2019 15:51

Brent below 60.44 might signal further downside. Might be better to wait until brent OP crossed the falling tl resistance from Sept 15/Sept 24/today (sept 26th), before buying anything.

[xxnjr] 26/9/2019 15:26

Not much conviction (by the market) in the OP.

[stupmy] 26/9/2019 15:09

well the 220 mark has been hit and rejected for the moment. Will be very interesting to see where we go next. I've still not entered.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
25 Sep '19 - 08:37 - 35114 of 35124
For those interested. Here's a 2 hour chart with gaps. share price gapped down today. Price may move up in the short term to around 220, then I personally think there is a good chance it will move to the downside to fill the gap to 180.

[rayrac] 26/9/2019 08:34

CANJE (35%)



Jethro

Joe
Malone
Kumaka
ORINDUIK (25%*)

Carapa
Puri

KANUKU (25%*)
Guyana
Total discoveries Prospects
Other discoveries

*QP minority shareholder subject to closing

Successful first wells
• Jethro: oil bearing high quality sandstone reservoirs, 55 m net oil pay
• Joe: play opener in Pliocene
Multiple wells and prospects already identified:
• Carapa well in 2019
• Bulletwood and Jabillo wells in 2020
• Follow up Tertiary prospects in Orinduik and Kanuku derisked by Jethro and Joe

[xxnjr] 25/9/2019 16:41

Appreciate those Stupmy. One thing at a time. I've learnt to spell your name correctly & have re-edited my previous posts accordingly. LoL! All I have to do now is get my head around all those sqiggly/dashed lines. In the meantime I'm just off to to a quick 50Kms on the mountain bike b4 any rain sets it. Have a good evening all.

[stupmy] 25/9/2019 15:55

xxnjr, the gap has now closed on the WTI daily. If you wanted to you could also argue there has been a 3rd touch on a weak (bullish) tl support (Sept 3rd/12th/25th ie. today). For my money it's time to start looking for a turnaround. I don't know where it will happen, it could be quite quick (although brent could do with closing it's gap to 760.3) or it could take a while, but it's time to start watching more closely. Will be interesting to see whether POO and TLW remain linked or diverge. TLW still has gaps below (the most notable being down to 180). Interestingly, on the daily chart I see TLW as bullish for the moment, but WTI and Brent as unclear.

[xxnjr] 25/9/2019 15:15

Sound advice.
WTI @ $55.70
Good call Stupmy.

[manicat] 25/9/2019 14:33

on page 28 total seem to be confirming the jethro canyon as an oil discovery something tullow and eco have not done

[stupmy] 25/9/2019 11:45

At that time xxnjr, I'll bet that it worked well for you. Everything changes and computer power has made the approach you discuss pretty well obsolete. Also what is reasonable (i.e. works) for one share won't necessarily work for another and even if it works for 3 mths, it can change fast so that what makes you money for a period, may need to be adjusted for the next period. Depends who's trading it (I mean big players) and what rules they're using. For the moment, oil and TLW are following some standard patterns. Newsflow (wider market rather than company-specific) has become a more sophisticated way of moving price around and is very difficult to interpret if you allow yourself to get drawn into it in too much detail. In my view, it's best to stick to things that you have a lot of confidence in and that you believe you have a good time window on. Don't overexpose and be very careful about leverage. If you're trading, trade and don't get caught in the trap of not making the trades because the bigger story is so juicy (that's how AIM kills people). What some people do is to have a position, sell half (a percentage) on what they believe are swing highs then hope to re-enter at a subsequent swing low (when it works well that would be below the previous s/h sell). Using this approach, you can build up a position's size, without excessively building up the percentage of your original risk capital that you have exposed. TLW's movements over the last weeks months have been great for that (although I've rarely entered for the moment). I'm still hoping for that 180 entry. My data doesn't go back far enough for me to show you, but there is also an unfilled gap down to around 135 (that's from memory). Not all gaps fill, nothing works all the time and no-one can see into the future. But you have to have ways of making yourself believe that your trade entries represent value. For me 180 is a potential area of value.