Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[stupmy] 01/9/2019 08:05

That makes sense to me, but out of hours news on stocks can be a big deal as can slippage without guaranteed stops so even when direction is contrary to gap position, I don't ignore them. It doesn't matter to me which stocks I trade (as long as I view the business as sustainable medium to long term). All that matters is that they go in the direction I expect them to go in over a reasonable time frame so that I avoid opportunity cost and make a profit. For that reason I often avoid shares with gaps in their trading data until they've closed.

[subsurface] 31/8/2019 23:56

Kanuku Thanks xx, Manicat I was looking at Repsol website not updated as yet guess waiting approval, The block covering 1,937 km2. Carapa looks to be the largest prospect in the block on the Tullow presentation.reminds me of KFC!

[sentimentrules] 31/8/2019 21:56

Example you take Apple on the monthly.. gapped up Feb 2017.. still not filled.

So got to treat gaps as only significant when direction called there or new trend starts heading that way

[sentimentrules] 31/8/2019 21:53

Agree. I tend to use them as potential targets once the market calls that direction . Until then i do ignore them though. Would you sort of agree with that?

[stupmy] 31/8/2019 21:47

Thanks. I don't personally have a strong view on the immediate future, but suspect we'll see 181 and possibly (if we have a failed drill or other bad news) 135. Simply 2 unfilled gaps. They usually fill, so I don't ignore them.

[sentimentrules] 31/8/2019 18:20

50,volume. 5 week period failure. The last three weeks, the high each week sold into heavily ..they stop selling to let it rise back to best price for them. And dump into it again.

Flows retracting in consolidation...period and fixed volumes all wrong for buyers at the top of a move up.Monthly volume high , yet cant get within 40 points of the ohlc yearly average sell off 're 255 April..

Crude itself looks very shaky.. it's all downward pressure winning in volatility . List goes on

Sector constituent comparisons etc etc. Global etfs..Sector etfs.. like for like Puts against similar in the US

Not really a tullow specific attack...more a case of..what i see makes sense

[stupmy] 31/8/2019 17:51

SentimentRules, what's the rationale behind that statement?

[manicat] 31/8/2019 16:02

totals deal with QP in guyana was orinduik and kanuku

[xxnjr] 31/8/2019 15:12

Current Kanuka positions are:-

Qp* 10%
Total* 15%
Repsol 37.5%
TLW 37.5%

* subject to Gy.Gov approval.



So perhaps not SS. Repsol & Tullow may, though dependent on how the drilling goes?

[subsurface] 31/8/2019 14:22

Just wondering if Total will farm down Kanuku to Qp?

[stupmy] 31/8/2019 14:06

It's interesting that the sentiment in the discussion has changed on this board from unbridled optimism to pessimism. The market doesn't like uncertainty and it makes it more likely that we'll see a drop in share price Good news would counter that, no news would probably see us drift down and bad news could see that 135 gap close come into play. It will be interesting to see what happens here.

[oilretire] 31/8/2019 13:25

First shipment from Kenya.

[billy_buffin] 31/8/2019 10:40

Carapa: 'Repsol Exploration Guyana will commence a drilling campaign at the Carapa 1 well site within the Kanuku Block of the Guyana Maritime Zone, which will commence on September 01,2019'



From Rowan Fleet Status July 19th:
VALARIS JU-144 (Rowan EXL II)
Trinidad Apr. 18 - Aug. 19 - BP contract
Guyana Sep. 19 - Oct. 19 Contracted for one well - Repsol

'Bourbon Calm' OSV/Tug currently off Trinidad east coast
Rowan EXL II not broadcasting position, Was at Angelis BP field east coast

[hsfinch] 31/8/2019 01:36

Kenya is an even bigger dog. If Greenpeace ever gets wind of what Tullow is allegedly planning there...you're gonna see big problems. Time for Africa's leading independent to admit they're not good in Africa. Kosmos put em on the map in Ghana...but everywhere Tullow leads they screw up. Hopefully they'll do better as Central America's leading independent.

[matt] 30/8/2019 14:22

I'd like to think that would a good entry point if possible before the next result.

[bootycall] 30/8/2019 13:22

I must admit, there is a simple solution to this game. CNOOC and Total buy an asset elsewhere from Tullow and pay a smaller price upfront for the Ugandan deal (wink wink) . The Ugandans by their obstinacy will just fire up the creative thinkers !
The URA insisting on non transfer of past costs at the last minute was pathetic. Millions of Ugandans will now suffer as a result. Alternatively someone bids for Tullow knowing that their will be no CGT or issues over transfer of past costs. Wake up Museveni. What you are doing is not clever.. maybe someone should send him a lecture on NPV and how it is calculated. I sold all my Tullow at 2.09 because of the cash flow implications of this announcement... I am looking to buy back shortly around 1.90-195 hopefully before the next well in Guyana ....

[subsurface] 30/8/2019 11:32

Thanks Billy
from africa press Uganda

[billy_buffin] 30/8/2019 10:25

SS Liza Destiny initial plan:


Liza Destiny latest. It moves to final position on or before 14th Sept as presently parked off the final position. Depending on how much commissioning in Singapore and subsea work already done could be end December? EDIT: XOM say 'first quarter'

Expect XOM to give a first oil date to Guyana authorities (tradition) even though it might be just a few barrels!