Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[captain james t kirk] 22/8/2019 18:56

xxnjr

Putting some more meat on the bone from that GH interview, he said, virtually word for word that Jethro could be considered as a stand alone development but to maximise the value we are going to drill JOE next week and then reprocess the whole 3D seismic data set, in combination with the data we have from the two wells, to plan for next year either appraisal, development or more exploration wells.
Later on he said that the Tullow team's initial estimates were that production could be very easy (at Jethro) and quite fast tracked if decided.

I believe it's called covering all bases :)

[xxnjr] 22/8/2019 17:53

Kirk - It's not clear when the Stena Forth contract expires, as TLW have a "series of options". Looking at my barely legible notes from TLW's call, One of the analysts asked if the SF would be returning to Ghana in a multiple question, question, but I don't think they answered that specific point. The did say more or less as I wrote above (drill 3 then re-calibrate), and future program will be shaped by results of wells 1/2/3 and they would come back next year to drill the larger prospects and appraise Jethro, and that the 2020 drilling program, and I'd suggest the 2020 Company Budget, has yet to be determined.

[xxnjr] 22/8/2019 16:00

Fair enough. Depends what Gil means by 'fast track'. We've been waiting 14 yrs for Uganda to be FID'd! Not sure Gil meant 'next week' :)

[captain james t kirk] 22/8/2019 15:17

subsurface
Thanks very much for the advice, I hadn't thought of that :)
xxnjr
I was thrown onto that line of thinking by Gil Holzman, in that Proactive interview, talking up the potential fast track production at Jethro.
There's always some kind of logic to my madness !

[xxnjr] 22/8/2019 15:10

cjtk - It may have made sense on ADVFN (perhaps for shareholders wanting maximum share price uplift before selling their shares?), but not to the companies who are paying the bills, and trying to map the way forward! All they are doing with the first 3 wells is gathering data from 3 separate target geological horizons at three separate well locations to gather as much data as possible. All this target data, plus the ancillary data on the way down to TD, you know how it's done, will be tied into their existing 3D seismic model, to give a better understanding that will inform the next steps in what may become (hopefully) a multi-year exploration program. There may well be a 6 month drilling hiatus between well 3 and wells 4/5/6 etc, as the data is painstakingly analysed. The is just good exploration practice.

[subsurface] 22/8/2019 14:25

captain kirk why dont you ask investor relations at Tullow!

[captain james t kirk] 22/8/2019 13:59

xxnjr
15 years and my mission is for only 5 :)
On Tuesday night, in the light of the delay of the Stena Forth moving (interesting that in the Tullow 12th August presentation they gave a drill time of 50 days and that expires today)myself and mr morrow discussed the possibilty of them delaying JOE to have a pop at the newly enlarged Jethro Extension. mr morrow then suggested that in that scenario they could drill JOE after the Carapa results are known and then go deeper into the Upper Cretaceous Rappu prospect at the same time. Made sense from many angles, including costs, but it's clearly not to be:)

[yumyum] 22/8/2019 13:19

frazboy, I do not think you realise how big this Guyana story is. Sell out for $1bn ?
It reminds me of Russia selling Alaska to the USA....

[xxnjr] 22/8/2019 12:44

Been here about 15 yrs cjtk, along with some of the regulars. Always good to have a fresh pair of eyes around. It was you who prompted me to look into depth of forthcoming upper cretaceous targets! Not as deep as I had feared. :)

[xxnjr] 22/8/2019 12:38

Hi there frazboy - the difference is that Zama is now fully appraised, hence it's on the transfer market. Guyana is an entirely different story. Punters are still reading the preface of 'Guyana The Sequel'. Not even that. Just reading a few snippets on the back cover. So far, we only have one hole the size of a small dinner plate in an area of 6941 Km2 across both blocks. Will be some time before true value is outed. In the meantime, if possible, TLW should solicit offers for one of their more mature players. Good results from Premier though!

[frazboy] 22/8/2019 09:56

That's a good set of numbers from Premier today - they're extending their plateau on Catcher until 2020 (could mean 5 or 17 months) through infill drilling and reserves upgrades. The relevance of all this to Tullow is of course that they are successfully deleveraging.If Tullow were to be offered $1bn for 50% of their share of Guyana they should bite the offerers hand-off, the share price reaction, thus far, says it's worth about a quarter of that.u

[subsurface] 22/8/2019 08:57

From ECO poster



Following the Jethro discovery and the presentation showing that Hammerhead clearly extends into the Orinduik block, I wrote to Tullow as the operator to ask how they intended to proceed regarding this matter. After a long delay I received a reply yesterday, the relevant part was as follows
"We updated all prospect polygons in our map for last week’s announcement so decided to show the portion of Hammerhead that we believe falls into our licence which we can see on seismic. We don’t intend to drill in this section, but at a later date when Exxon may develop Hammerhead, it is likely we’ll need to discuss some simple unitisation in order to recover a % share that falls within our block. This in not unusual as often discoveries cross over licence boundaries."
Probably what most expected but it shows that all the partners in Orinduik will see a financial benefit from the Hammerhead discovery, what we don't know for certain yet is the extent of the overlap.

[captain james t kirk] 22/8/2019 07:45

morning all
I didn't know you were swimming with the bigger fish xxnjr :)
I've just posted this on the minnow's board:
"I've just picked up those coordinates and Stena Forth is scheduled to move 13.64 nautical miles or 25.371 kms, 260 degrees from Jethro in a westerly direction.
So that should not take long."

[billy_buffin] 22/8/2019 06:07

Move to Joe

[subsurface] 22/8/2019 05:20

Can roll over the map to expand

[subsurface] 22/8/2019 04:46

Great drilling not far away at Joe
Kanuku block on Tullows slide they choose the Carapa prospect interesting as they could of targeted two prospects to the left of Carapa on the slide drilling through one and on to the other. Carapa looks the larger of the prospects.

Some good news from Peru

From an old Pitkin document

Peru: The Peru Block Z-38 2D marine seismic acquisition survey was completed in March 2009, with 2,393 kms of data recorded. Block Z-38, which covers 4,875 sq kms, lies 15 kms from giant oilfields to the south that have produced over 1 billion barrels of oil and 25 kms west of BPZ’s Corvina Field. A number of substantial prospects and leads have already been mapped from existing seismic, most of them exhibiting direct hydrocarbon indicators. Following PeruPetro and Government approval, equity interests of the participants in Block Z-38 will be: Pitkin (via VAMEX) 40%; Karoon Gas Australia Ltd 60%.

[xxnjr] 22/8/2019 00:01

The rig is moving today the 22nd.


Liza FPSO Destiny sail out to field on the 28th

[billy_buffin] 21/8/2019 16:07

15:30 EIA Crude Inventories fake news? maybe regain height

[subsurface] 21/8/2019 15:44

we are loosing altitude

[xxnjr] 21/8/2019 14:55

not on that Tupolev! ;-)
Quite impressive a population of 800,000 have their own airline.

[subsurface] 21/8/2019 14:46

book us a couple of seats xx we need a holiday

[xxnjr] 21/8/2019 14:43

time for a tup up?

[subsurface] 21/8/2019 14:33

5tandby for take off

[carlosalberto70] 21/8/2019 11:24

Many thanks.
I posted that first map link on ECO board the other day, as I was looking for more investable companies with blocks in Suriname but it seems 15 wells, according to that map, came up dry or very limited success.

I saw the diagram on the Jethro result but have only just noticed that it clearly states W - E at the top, so the 4 wells shown are all within spitting distance of each other, about 20 miles, and Carapa must be in the very North of the Kanuku block.

So all very much in and around the current hotspot, but testing different formations.

Regarding Abary - I found both these comments in a paper by a Ryan Fraser



"SHELL’s third well at Abary 1 sunk in the deepest part of the offshore basin close to a targeted seismic horizon, encountered heavy gases and oil. The well was abandoned without being tested, because the operators could not control it."

"Outboard of the shelf margin the Abary 1 penetrates the uppermost part of the New Amsterdam equivalent section that is dominated by clays.Seismic interpretation has identified basin floor fans in the basal New Amsterdam that is equivalent to the North Coroni sands in the North Coroni 1 well drilled offshore Suriname (approximately 100 km away). It is believed that shelf margin deltas exist between the basin floor fan and the upper sequence in the Abary well."