Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 18/8/2019 14:44

Thanks Billy and xx much appreciated,

[billy_buffin] 18/8/2019 11:06

From Liza Phase 1 and 2 Environmental Impacts:
Phase 1 Gas treatment all re-injection (reservoir management) minus fuel gas for facilities. Possible operational requirement to flare occasionally.

Phase 2 does Include possibility of future gas treatment and export but injection is preferred, (Reservoir Management)
Phase 2 (Liza Unity) the FPSO will have associated gas treatment capacity of 400 million cubic feet per day.

Good design template for Tullow, sizing of the gas injection compressors being correct! Aware Guyana keen to utilise gas though

Looks like Liza Destiny (and escort vessel) ETA Guyana area end August according to marinetraffic.com
Maybe wrong but can't see that Stena Forth has moved much as yet.

[xxnjr] 18/8/2019 00:33

West Castor is drilling the first Suriname well now.

[subsurface] 18/8/2019 00:18

Suriname getting ready for more exploration

[subsurface] 17/8/2019 14:41

Wealth Warning. My Thinking!
I don,t think its If we find oil on Joe we will! given the data they have is so clear the bright images Gil talked about Plus Joe is Shallower than Jethro and they were unanimous on Drill selections.
lets see.
Take your point on Slide 11 also there may be targets not on the slide to keep matters quiet for a while its such a big area.
I think its all about the quality of the data its so good.

[xxnjr] 17/8/2019 12:33

see slide 11 of

Exxon steering clear of the western side of Stabroek as Venezuelan naval vessels have been known to show up, although VNZ Navy may not have any bunkering fuel these days. Potentially ITLOS all over again.

More to the point look at that large light green un-drilled prospect, basin floor fan perhaps, down dip of our Joe well on the Hess chart. If we find the oil up-dip, expect an XOM drill ship to turn up on that down-dip prospect sometime soon.

Carapa numbers probably conservative. Jaguar cretaceous target was >400mbo.

Make sense for Tullow to go after the cheaper Tertiary drills to begin with. Deeper pockets needed for the deeper stuff.

[subsurface] 17/8/2019 10:31

Perhaps Tullow will have a re think on the Carbonates.I had a look at the Block sizes.

Starbroek 26,800 Sq km

Orinduik 1800 Sq Km

Kanuku 5164 sq Km

Carapa Target 200 million bbls looks the big prospect on the slide .

[xxnjr] 17/8/2019 08:39

here's the Rystad article SS



I'm interested to see how the Ranger-2 appraisal EXXON now drilling goes. It's a carbonate reef discovery. Could be very large. Worth noting there are carbonate prospects on the Kanuka block and also believed present on WCTP/DWT blocks in Ghana. But TLW never followed them up. Ranger is miles off shore, miles from our blocks, in ultra deep water but nevertheless it's another trap type that works in Guyana.

[xxnjr] 17/8/2019 08:00

Patrick Pouyanné joueur d'échecs par excellence!
And the Arabs love Chess.

[subsurface] 17/8/2019 03:48

Its looking more and more likely that Letting QP in so late was a strategic planning as Total and QP will not let Guyana slip through there hands,Take out ECO and Tullow to farm down to help with Massive costs for Full Field development if needed?.I think they Know!

[subsurface] 17/8/2019 03:00

Westwood Global Energy Group, Guyana’s oil resources now positions it to “be the country that produces the most barrels per capita [about 450 barrels],” potentially placing its per capita production ahead of ‘heavy hitters’ in the global oil industry like Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

From Rystad Energy Analyst “Tullow and its partners could easily be sitting on a multi-billion barrel block.”

[subsurface] 17/8/2019 00:58

premium-for-kenya-oil

For anyone worried about Brexit
straight down to Aces Bar ,latch on

have a nice weekend!

[xxnjr] 16/8/2019 18:20

Good question SS.
Only hope our CEO is a good chess player.

[subsurface] 16/8/2019 17:43

Very good to have them around xx
Given the Poo and Tullow,s Debt and free cash flow situation where will the money come from for development? hope they can sell down in Kenya, and Uganda gets sorted out
they have wasted so much money over the years,be interesting to see what they do.

[xxnjr] 16/8/2019 17:20

This has probably been said already, but QP seem like an obvious buyer when TLW decide to farm down their Guyana position. At the moment (subject to deal completion) QP will hold 10% of Orinduik and 10% of Kanuku.

[xxnjr] 16/8/2019 16:21

Dividing Net well cost by equity percentage gives Gross well costs:-

Jethro-1 projected cost $50m
Joe projected cost $18.3m
Carapa projected cost $53.3m

Repsol/TLW/CGX took 5 months with the last cretaceous drill Jaguar-1, and that failed to get anyway near the targeted horizon, before it was abandoned due to High Pressure concerns.



After that, CGX almost went bust drilling a follow up well Eagle-1 on their Correntyne block.

[xxnjr] 16/8/2019 15:04

Yep SS, 3.5 yrs from discovery to 1st oil on Jubilee.
And 8.5 additional yrs and still counting to not reach sustained Plateau Production!
Maybe next year will be the year.

[subsurface] 16/8/2019 14:53

Gil talks of 20 to 25 days for drilling Joe and low cost $11 million v $30 million for Jethro.

[subsurface] 16/8/2019 14:45

Worth a read

I thought Tullow went from fist discovery to production in 3 1/2years

On JOE.
I asked the same question, why not drill down? The feeling was either its high risk to drill down and they don,t want a blot on the copy book, the other theory is they want to look at Joe data and then decide.

[xxnjr] 16/8/2019 13:19

Joe ought to be a quicker well than Jethro-1, as target is shallower in upper tertiary section and will be P&A'd as an exploration well. Jethro-1 was suspended as a future producer. It's not planned to test the underlying cretaceous Rappu prospect with Joe-1, according to Tullow. Why not test "2 for 1"? Dunno. Given TLW have 60%, maybe they don't want to spend the money at this stage? as they can test the cretaceous with Carapa on Kanuku Block at 37.5% participation cost first.

OTOH maybe Joe-1 will be located to tag what appears to be an underlying (lower?) tertiary prospect.

[billy_buffin] 16/8/2019 12:26

Stena Forth - not under way as yet.

[stupmy] 16/8/2019 11:10

Simply an unfilled gap. They tend to fill, although it's not always the case

[xxnjr] 16/8/2019 11:09

LSE glitch earlier today ....."London Stock Exchange on Friday faced an “issue” that forced it to delay the opening of trading of the biggest companies listed on the bourse for nearly two hours. The group said the glitch had affected securities listed on the FTSE 100 and 250 indices"

[romeike] 16/8/2019 11:05

"From a technical perspective" - when the oil price was as bad as it's ever been tlw was still around 160-170p so how you work out 135p I have no idea. Good luck but there is probably a reason you "missed a lot of potential trading profit".

[alfiex] 16/8/2019 10:50

Can anyone work this share out? oil up 2% Tullow down 1% did we fomd oil in Guyana ffs.