Trainline Share Discussion Threads

[big_cat] 06/6/2003 11:55

Another 1p jump this morning could mean one of two things. Either a stake is being accumulated or small cap funds have now become interested. I would have expected the price to ease a little bit post results and post substantial gains, thus my suspicion.

Davron - CA's generally tend to be good managers of money but to be a successful business leader, risks have to be taken which CA's on balance are reluctant to undertake. I have always believed that MBAs in US (and US MBA only) are better suited to the CEO role than CAs over here.

[davron8] 06/6/2003 10:49

Big Cat, agree in general that CA's are not always the best CEO's for reason you give. As Macduck states, this is a financial business and it does make sense here. Personally blame CA's for much of the decline in Brit Ind due to there narrow attitute in forward investment re R & D and re equiping. Have no probs with management here, they seem to be taking us in the right direction.

[big_cat] 05/6/2003 23:55

macduck - You must feel pretty pleased at the performance. I cannot agree that CAs make best CEOs - CAs tend to be over cautious and not risk takers.

I am new to the game, so apologies in advance if any of my postings don't make sense.

[macduck] 05/6/2003 18:48

Big Cat
I am just a lowly investor who bot a few shares at 13p some time ago.I happen to like companies that have a CA as CEO,especially in a business such as this.I'll also stick with management who put their money where their mouth is!Anything else you wud like to know?
By the way, you dont seem to be a regular on this board.

[monty burns] 05/6/2003 10:34

Groundhog Day?

It may be due to one of the brokers (dear old Killik, so every confidence in their analysis........) talking up ICAP yesterday (per the Torygraph market commentary), someone makes the connection re the ICAP acquisition strategy, buys a few TRN, some watchers buy some more, etc etc.

I'm speculating, but supply does look to be quite tight at the moment.

Heh, heh.

[davron8] 05/6/2003 10:21

I did expect it to have a rest period after the results had settle in, i.e no activity, but it is getting very lively. Is it poss that some think a take over offer may be coming. Have no ear near the city so no gossip or rumours to quote. It was casually referred to after the ICAP results that they may be looking for purchases. Anyway, I'm very happy to see the progress.

[big_cat] 04/6/2003 23:58

macduck.....whose side are you batting for?

[ydderf] 04/6/2003 20:00

lol............

[macduck] 04/6/2003 16:02

It appears that some small investors are taking profits at theses levels as the shares have risen from below 20p to these levels in a rather short time and the shares are in new high ground.Also there does not appear to be any large buyers at these prices.
The shares need to have a rest here.
Patience is still the name of the game with TRN.

[tacobumpy] 04/6/2003 13:51

Oh well, excitement over as the sellers come out and the price drifts back down. Ho, hum.

[davron8] 04/6/2003 13:48

I posted a couple of weeks ago I thought these were worth holding, nice to see them rising. Not always right unfortunately but this does look to be a good hold.

[monty burns] 04/6/2003 13:16

Um, blimey........

[tacobumpy] 04/6/2003 13:14

looks like a shortage of stock with the price rising on every purchase. Seems the confidence on the 75K buyer yesterday is weel founded.

[badtime] 04/6/2003 13:13

broke resistence?

[tacobumpy] 03/6/2003 13:02

someones confident. 75,000 just gone through at 25p

[ntv] 31/5/2003 16:33

davron8
hmm i guess a £700m takeover of trio seems fair to me i think i would probably accept!

[davron8] 29/5/2003 22:37

Monty, interesting post. I guess it would need a lot more than a take over of Trio for ICAP to get in the FTSE100. Still they do say "takeovers" which suggest it may be done by moving for a number of smaller companies. I guess we may be safe for the time being and can see the growth this year in our own little company.

[monty burns] 29/5/2003 08:42

Mmm, difficult to call, but, having read the Telegraph ths morning, the comments from ICAP's CEO Michael Spencer, plus TRN's own paragraph in their last results about industry consolidation, plus recent trades, make it fairly explicit that a deal will be done - or at least they will talk about it, one would think. See third-from-last paragraph - no guarantees, and that's the risk we all take.




ICAP answers Buffett with 40pc surge
By James Moore (Filed: 29/05/2003)


Money broker ICAP yesterday hit back at critics of its business as the group again beat City profit forecasts for the year. Michael Spencer, chief executive, also said that the company was likely to shut down its executive share option scheme.

It follows growing demands for companies to account for the cost of providing share options in their profit-and-loss accounts. ICAP acts as a middleman between banks that find they have bought too much of particular financial commodity such as bonds or derivatives. The company enables them to trade anonymously.

Mr Spencer hit back at Warren Buffett, the influential US investor, for calling derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction" in the wake of the complicated financial instruments' involvement in scandals such as the collapse of Enron, the energy trading group.

He said: "That was not caused by derivatives, it was caused by dishonesty. Nobody has found any financial weapons of mass destruction, have they?" However, Mr Spencer said that he agreed with Mr Buffett's demand that the cost of offering executive share options be reflected in companies' accounts.

He said: "We think they should be costed and we think there are better ways to reward executives. If you are going to cost options, you might as well offer cash. If you gave people the choice of whether to be paid in options or cash, then most of them would probably go for the cash. We have not made the decision yet but I think it is likely."

ICAP yesterday said pre-tax profits for the year to March 31 grew by 40pc to £118m. Turnover surged 26pc to £664.3m. The results beat analysts' expectations.

Mr Spencer also said he believed the company could increase profits to £140m next year. He said ICAP had been able to increase profits by keeping a lid on costs while operating in a rapidly growing market.

ICAP has been one of the City's most spectacular success stories over the past few years. The company has quadrupled in size over the past three years and its share price growth has been beaten by only one company.

The shares lost ground yesterday, finishing down 31.5p at £10.45, but analysts said this was mainly due to profit-taking after heavy buying in the past few days. ICAP also said it was increasing its total dividend for the year to 30p, up 25pc.

Martin Cross, analyst at Teather & Greenwood, said: "These are pretty good results. They have kept the lid on costs, which is always a good thing in a broker, and they have been quite bullish over the dividend."

Mr Spencer said that market conditions remained "good" for ICAP. He said the business would concentrate on the integration of BrokerTec, the electronic broker over the next few months but remained interested in smaller takeovers and was likely to do more deals during the coming year.

He also said that he believed institutions were becoming more and more willing to trade electronically with each other, which made the BrokerTec operation a key part of the company's strategy. However, he said that there was still strong demand for traditional over the telephone business.

Mr Spencer admitted that ICAP's ambition was to enter the FTSE 100 index of Britain's leading companies, but would not be drawn on timescale. ICAP is currently in the top 130 companies and is capitalised at about £1.2 billion. It would need to grow to around £1.9 billion to enter the FTSE at current levels.

[tacobumpy] 28/5/2003 22:04

but, whilst ICAP posted good results the outlook is cautious. TRN have already posted results for the same period and at the same time their outlook was also cautious. The recent run-up has definitely been the IC comments and it could once again be the IC getting on board after the run-up has happened. I have taken profit on some of my holding still believing that the business is undervalued, but at the moment I cannot see it getting a rerating. If it drifts back down to sub-20p I will buy back those that I have sold.

[monty burns] 28/5/2003 14:14

ICAP (IAP) - larger money broker - released their numbers today - very profitable, although share price down on profit taking after strong run.

May or may not be relevant to TRN and acquisition issue. Whatever, looking good again for now. Those '?' trades were certainly buys.

[davron8] 28/5/2003 11:59

Looking at the trades this morning , my guess is that a lot of the trades shown in the ? col are buys. The price ease suggest the MM's are short of stock and we could see a move upwards later if the buys continue.

[judgement] 27/5/2003 22:23

The expectation of UK and european interest rate cuts can't be doing their prospects any harm. Add to that the recent dollar/euro volatility, and I'd guess that business must be fairly good.

[ntv] 27/5/2003 19:40

very interesting to see stock closing at new high
watching and waiting to go either way

[monty burns] 27/5/2003 15:54

Looking increasingly like something is up (apart from the share price.)

I would be surprised if it was takeover stuff at this stage, given the CEO was buying less than a month ago, but then again, nothing about price movements before announcements surprises me these days.

[xenawarriorprincess] 27/5/2003 15:42

Trio is now at a critical level.

They have tried and failed on 5 previous occasions to break through the 23.75p level, falling back each time. A close above that price for two days running would be a chartists dream.

The break when (or if) it comes will be critical, and will I believe see a rapid advance in the price to 30p+.

It could be of course that 'insiders' are aware that Mr Levene is stocking up again.