Trainline Share Discussion Threads

[panagos] 16/5/2003 00:10

I am a buyer at 15p ish, if we see this price agin

[edbassett] 15/5/2003 18:20

holding for 50p (within 2-3) years

easy peezy

[delboy002] 15/5/2003 17:12

Sell Sell Sell.....so as I can get back in at 18p :-)

[davron8] 15/5/2003 16:06

Drago, you are of course right, I was just trying to give a quick response to Jitters and forgot the tax charge. IMHO will see good results as the management seem to be building for the future.

[davron8] 15/5/2003 11:54

Tacobumpy.
Interesting that the price has moved back up with so few buys. MM's must be short of stock.

Jitters, the results, while showing a reduction in profits had very clear reasons why this had occured. The cost of moving, setting up the new trading dept and the re-equiping the with lastest technowlogy. All of these will have an affected on the bottom line for the past year but conversely will add to the future earnings. IMHO.

[the jitters] 08/5/2003 13:14

This aint tree shaking, its called the drift of death and happens to most stocks in the weeks and months after mediocre results.

I intend buying back, but not at this price!!

Phil

[davron8] 07/5/2003 11:29

Taco, you may be right re accumulating and we are having a bit of tree shaking now. Most shares seem to fall back after results and the T10 etc leave. As posted earlier, am in for a long hold.

[tacobumpy] 07/5/2003 08:44

All but one of the trades ysterday were sells and the share was marked up 0.25p. Today there were no trades and the MM's pushed the price down by 0.5p. This stock normally moves consistently with the trades goign through so all that selling pressure yesterday should hav pushed the price down. COuld this mean that someone is accumulating? Hopefully so, to remove any weak holders and then perhaps we could see some upwards pressure on the price.

[davron8] 06/5/2003 18:56

edbassett, good posting. The new broker section coming into operation will hopefully start to give a return on the investment, the new equipment should help to improve the business and the cost of moving will have been taken in the recent figures. Will hold as I believe we still have a good price increase to come on a share that should not have too many dangers. Interesting that it showed a .25p increase today when many thought it would fall back.

[edbassett] 06/5/2003 13:43

I guess year end profits around £3.5m based on last years figures

You have to remember that this still puts Trio in a excellent position on earnings multiples and indeed the fact they have reorganised they're business

They look likely to be the interest of a takeover talk in the coming months and when the market resumes interest rate volumes (which it appears to be showing signs of) I would expect next year to show solid improvements on last years profits.

Hence with the cash in the bank supporting the business, and indeed the possibility of a premium dividend I am happy to hold as part of my long term portfolio

:0)

[simonevans] 04/5/2003 17:54

Poor results were well and truly flagged in the annual report. There were at least two references to quieter volumes. Performance will always be volatile in this market. Still a good company, but glad that I have taken profits. I may be tempted to get back in if the share price falls much more.

[davron8] 04/5/2003 13:42

Orvis, had a look at ICAP as you suggested, seems the shares have not traded for a long time and no RNS's since mid 2001 nor any fundamental infor available according to the Adfin site. Where do you get your info from to suggest that something is about to break.

[orvis] 02/5/2003 08:54

Heard that ICAP had a record month and still going gangbusters.

[farsight] 01/5/2003 21:39

Darn. Buyout or no, I should have took the money and run.

[badtime] 01/5/2003 19:10

Hmmm..Monty i tend to agree with u...and profits down..yes..but indication that things have improved..maybe hagans purchase is ..a gesture..and if he hadnt put his hand in his pocket?...I continue to hold.

[dumpling] 01/5/2003 17:46

I'm out, having got my fingers slightly burned. No profit warnings. Don't trust this lot. No reason why it should not drop back down from whence it came unless takeover or buyout.

[skyracer] 01/5/2003 11:43

These results are truly awful and Trio now look vulnerable. It is going to be a long year, culminating in full year results in December that appear woeful wrt last years exceptional performance. When I first took an interest in Trio at 11p the performance was far better than this. If a bid does not materialise soon the share price is going to decline back to at least 14p. I would not attach too much importance to David Hagan's share purchase, it is an insignificant % wrt his total holding. 19p Bid seems a generous exit price.

[beartrap] 01/5/2003 11:11

My Q - is this a sector specific or company specific fall off in business?

I would look to ICAP to tell you this. I am hearing they are going to have some bumper figures out over the next few days. So company specific IMHO.

[monty burns] 01/5/2003 11:07

Davron

I suppose my other concern is that this new division's staffing was recruited during the period - therefore does not have a full period's costs included in the numbers. Unless it's already self-funding through additional revenue, then it will be a drag on profitabilty.

I still like the idea of the top man owning a lot of shares - he will not want to pursue unprofitable avenues that drag down profits, share price and therefore his personal wealth.

[davron8] 01/5/2003 10:54

Monty, Well summed up, yes disappointing after previous figures but still lots to digest as to future. Cash in hand = 12.25p per share. The lead up to war may well have had a bigger affect than some of us expected and the move to new premises is always a problem. Have been involved in this during my working life and know that some business is lost. The setting up of the new Credit Div and re-equiping will have had an impact on profits. I will continue to hold as the basis still looks sound to me and with the new Division coming into operation may well help to put the smile back into the figures.

[verymaryhinge] 01/5/2003 10:53

sold half of mine - didn't like the numbers - DID like Hagen's purchase, hit my mental s/l so had to do something..

[monty burns] 01/5/2003 10:41

Not a good day to be holding 270k of these.

Certainly not selling, too difficult to offload that size today. Headline numbers awful, but still think it's a hold based on fundies, not just my position.

Net cash £10m, market cap 16m. A lot of cash has just been paid in the last 12 months, including exceptional divi, the £2m+ dealer system, tax on last year's bumper profits, and they still have £10m. Admittedly I thought it might be more than last time and nearer £12m, but poor trading has seen to that.

Difficult to tell what the underlying profitabilty is - was it a poor few months, therefore carry the staff cost and wait until business picks up as it now seems to be doing? Or is the war uncertainty masking poor trading as competitors nick their business, possibly during the move disruption?

'Cos of my position I'm probably looking on the bright side, but the reduced trading was flagged, albeit none of us really noticed, now I'm thinking that the upbeat recent trading comments auger well, and the real level of profitabilty is somewhere between the last 6 month trough and prior bumper period.

Sustained dividend also suggests confidence, and (clutching at straws a little) the paragraph on industry consolidation plus the Chairman buying helps the picture.

At the end of the day, net enterprise value of £6m (market cap less cash) for a business that is making on-going after-tax annual profits of ? (somewhere between £0.5m and £2.0m ?) is still a good risk in this market. And the profit stalling may make a takeover more immminent, albeit not at the 35-40 pence talked about recently.

Holding for now, may even add in a few days if price falls low enough.

[badtime] 01/5/2003 10:05

Dreadful..dont seem to be the appropriate word disappointing maybe ...hagans buy seems to be appropriate.

[cwa1] 01/5/2003 09:40

Interesting to see Mr Hagan picking up a 100k slug at 19p, he seems to be in no doubt as to whether the business will pick up or not :-)

[beartrap] 01/5/2003 09:35

Dreadful results that were not flagged with the share price actually trading up over the last week or so expecting another bumper set of results....surprised this has not bombed out by more but expect more sellers as they digest these results. This just shows you how volatile a small player in this market earnings are and thus should trade at on a low rating.

ICAP results are out over the next few days and they are expected to be very good. If you want exposure to this sector I would look at ICAP due to their consistent track record of beating estimates and more diversified income streams.