Trainline Share Discussion Threads

[privileged] 23/6/2020 18:44

Also still hoping some insiders with shares sell once lockin periods over at end if the week.

[tallprawn] 23/6/2020 12:41

Could well be an update due next week - Last year they put out Q1 performance via a trading update on 2nd July.Can't be anything other than utterly ugly - Can't see Q2 being much better either.

[tallprawn] 23/6/2020 12:31

I've just taken a look over this also. No idea why it's valued so high... Train travel volumes will take 2-3 years to recover anywhere near to 2019 levels.Surely should be 350p-400p at best right now.It looks a pretty obvious short to me also.

[mallorca 9] 22/6/2020 10:50

It is a weird one.
At today's level I have cautiously shorted again.
50% margin required by IG Index though so they obviously don't want to get caught out here by a sudden drop.

A friend of mine was at Liverpool Lime Street recently and said that the usually bustling station was practically empty and that all the seats in the waiting area had been removed !

[glennpaul] 19/6/2020 10:08

Couldn't agree more, so many of the people I know are deciding or being told they will be working from home much more in the future. Can't see where the passenger numbers will come from. There's also the risk they will all be nationalised as they can't make money with half the seats empty. In which case why would they compete on fares, they could revert to standard fares across the board and there would be no need for Trainline. This applies to UK maybe it would be different in other countries?

[privileged] 05/6/2020 10:39

Getting to the 12 month point where directors or any other lucky staff getting shares are free to sell. I know what i'd be doing if i was one. hopefully that'll drag price down from mid June

Plus the news on face coverings - not going to make many people want to use the train and seems to make it less and less likely that big public gatherings are going to be allowed in the near future so not sure where their revenue is going to come from over the next few months. share price is far too high surely!

[catscats] 05/6/2020 10:06

short squeeze with big inst adding to holdings...although i see Capital has announced a small reduction today. Compulsory mask wearing will further put me off using trains.
Looks crazily overvalued to me - but then so do many things

[martynporter79] 03/6/2020 07:03

Fundamentals appear irrelevant with this share. Market manipulation at it's finest right here.

[welloiledbeefhooked] 23/5/2020 01:13

I work on the trains and there are very few people travelling. Trains are virtually empty.

[privileged] 22/5/2020 16:56

It says on their website when you go into the quote and click on market data.For every stock it says the % of clients short and long.

[pstick] 22/5/2020 16:52

privileged - how do you know 90% of IG clients are short? Doesn't seem like there are a lot of short interest based on shorttacker.co.uk, so don't know to what extent the recent share price increase is due to short squeeze.

[horndean eagle] 22/5/2020 14:23

short squeeze from hell but you can only keep the reservation thing whilst no one is travelling. Those that are would tend to have season tickets. In fact with season tickets you would have to use the operators app to make the reservation. only lner have got for mandated reservations at present. Imagine its not a particularly pressing issue so others probably won't follow. For now at least.

[privileged] 22/5/2020 14:19

Any views on Auto? . Looks similar!

[privileged] 22/5/2020 14:16

90% IG clients short

[mallorca 9] 22/5/2020 14:12

That surge will have taken out a lot of SB's due to margin calls.

Watch it tank now before the close.

[privileged] 22/5/2020 14:12

Hope so mallorca.

[mallorca 9] 22/5/2020 14:09

Its a short squeeze with SB companies now requiring 50% margin on this.

[privileged] 22/5/2020 13:57

I've increased short a lot today alsoThe only thing that worries me is online train tickets could be mandated in covid world so good for trn. But hopefully the rail operators will plug their own websites for this (one or two are white label trn but most not, not sure what profit they make, would be good to know ). But if capacity is only 15% of normal then even 100% market share makes it look toppy. I guess if that gets relaxed and they pick up big market share in future is what market is hoping. Still all seems over priced given uncertainty and the valuation multiple

[mallorca 9] 22/5/2020 13:52

Just opened another short.

[privileged] 22/5/2020 12:21

This is insane, £2 to £5 in under 2 months. Nearly at ATH

Any insight?

[catscats] 22/5/2020 10:17

what is going on here - the stock is up almost 50% in 2 weeks with no news. Is it a short squeeze or does someone have some insight (inside) of good news to come...?

[kickingking] 20/5/2020 16:04

Sooner or later this will be crashing down. If one can hold their nerve, they will make serious money. I can not see this going higher then 580p. Keep adding to short at every 50p. Alot people will not be doing the long commute in the future to work 5 days a week. Companies will see people can work from home and still have a functioning business.

[primarch1] 20/5/2020 15:55

Can't argue with the trend on this one even if the fundamentals don't add up shorting this has hurt gl to those long maybe I will join you