Trainline Share Discussion Threads

[dare2share] 05/2/2021 13:58

Yeah wished now I'd stayed on the sidelines. Simply put would people buy a company for over £2bn that would then lose them money every year and who's revenue has been decimated due to the pandemic. Perfectly willing to accept I might be missing something but I'm struggling with what is motivating ppl to buy right now!

[lennonsalive] 05/2/2021 10:53

It's trick how to call it right, I have several shares on a short list, but none of them are behaving according to fundamentals, so I'd rather leave and watch for now. Shame goes for this.

[dare2share] 04/2/2021 12:35

Yes think you're right - thought I'd timed it well after a clear downtrend, but since I opened a position done nothing but go up. Just under 500p is my stop. Any higher and I'm out despite not understanding what people are seeing in this share. What do the ppl buying think the next results will look like?!

[lennonsalive] 04/2/2021 12:17

I was thinking of short but currently on an upward rise and I was looking from about 500 if possible

[dare2share] 04/2/2021 10:52

Happy to declare I'm short here and know whatever I post won't impact on the share price. Just struggling to understand why people are buying. The company makes no profit, debt is up and the next results are likely going to be very poor. Posting out of frustration and also questioning if I'm missing something here!

[slicethepie] 30/1/2021 12:50

I notice Ennismore are short here...wonder what they will do in the light of events in the us last week

[stevenbetts] 26/1/2021 10:23

How low do we think this will go?

[dagsteeth] 07/1/2021 13:54

1% coupon convertible at a 50% premium? Have investors gone mad? Buy a decent credit bond (eg tesco) at 2% and trainline shares at no premium. Baffled. Answers please......

[catscats] 07/1/2021 09:48

why would anyone buy the Conv bond - very low coupon and high premium. Think it very poorly thought through.

[glennpaul] 07/1/2021 09:10

Wow, talk about throwing good money after bad. Can't imagine why anyone would subscribe to this unfortunate enterprise. I have increased my short and happy to sit and watch the metaphorical train crash.

[macdoni] 06/1/2021 14:10

Just gone short today - current level is where the CFO dumped 3m of shares and don't think he's got it far wrong !

[21ant] 06/1/2021 13:52

Well I shorted this yesterday easily looking for a return to £4 or lower and look what happens. No reason for this to rise at all as far as I can see

[h0me] 06/1/2021 12:22

When is the next update due?

[texaspete2] 17/12/2020 21:35

Just looking at consensus forecasts on stockopedia, FY21 net profit of -57m and FY22 net profit of 14.4m, this equates to a PE of 143!

[texaspete2] 11/12/2020 16:35

Indeed and ref Government stats, train travel is still below 30% of volume precovid

[glennpaul] 11/12/2020 16:11

So how does a loss making company selling tickets on trains that are almost empty with so many people working from home have a market cap over 2 billion? It would be rude not to short it.

[sphere25] 06/12/2020 21:55

Noise and signals.

We are told to observe these important facets of markets. Smaller director trades are often noise. There have been two enormous signals here with the recent CEO news, and now the CFO, and yet the market is almost oblivious to them. When insiders take action like this, it is very hard to suggest that the market knows better than the insiders.

A short while back (just prior to the Pfizer vaccine news) we saw a barrage of takeover activity. It wasn't just a case of the odd one or two, they were flying in almost every day. It was a strong signal to suggest that UK shares were undervalued.

Thankfully vaccine news was positive. In the event a vaccine were to have taken abit longer, it would have been a surprise to not see a continuation of this strong buy signal imo.

In light of recent market moves, what is interesting to note now is that we are seeing more of these director sells. It isn't just TRN:

JDW
AJB
AFM
LUCE
WINE
IGR
G4M
888
NXT
GYM

These are interesting moves by insiders which could be suggesting a strong signal on current valuation grounds of many shares and the delivery of future forecasts. The enormous market moves recently has now brought the focus on the delivery.

The way the likes of TRN have moved would suggest that delivery has to be absolutely flawless. The market could possibly forgive a slight hiccup but anything more than that could result in a material de-rating of the shares.

The whole dynamic is now changing from a rally on bad news as the ratings were so low to now having to deliver and possibly selling on any fragile news imo.

The evolving nature of the market cannot be ignored.

All imo

DYOR

[catscats] 04/12/2020 14:18

Gov cutting rail infrastructure spending by £1bln is a bit odd when they have wasted £3.5bln running empty trains. when are they going to reduce the service in line with passenger numbers - still only 50% of normal. Either way this stock is way overvalued - follow the directors lead IMHO

[h0me] 03/12/2020 18:06

Another big director sell! What a surprise. Sell.

[mikerocky] 03/12/2020 11:32

That's a big old sell today. Think the CFO has spotted the top here.

[anderson3] 03/12/2020 10:08

I bet these directors can't believe there luck, managing to sell stock at these prices, way overpriced

[texaspete2] 19/11/2020 16:29

II purchase reported just now. Funds have to have exposure to future tech. They must expect big things from TRN in long term! I would like to know Invesco's rationale though!

[anderson3] 19/11/2020 15:00

How does this keep going up

[texaspete2] 19/11/2020 13:33

For those charting experts, I beleive there is a gap to fill at circa 489p from the end of June. perhaps momentum will take it there at which point I would reopen my short. Also heard on radio today in the news that train companies are forecasting that train travel will only return to 75% of pre covid levels.