Trainline Share Discussion Threads

[sphere25] 06/12/2020 21:55

Noise and signals.

We are told to observe these important facets of markets. Smaller director trades are often noise. There have been two enormous signals here with the recent CEO news, and now the CFO, and yet the market is almost oblivious to them. When insiders take action like this, it is very hard to suggest that the market knows better than the insiders.

A short while back (just prior to the Pfizer vaccine news) we saw a barrage of takeover activity. It wasn't just a case of the odd one or two, they were flying in almost every day. It was a strong signal to suggest that UK shares were undervalued.

Thankfully vaccine news was positive. In the event a vaccine were to have taken abit longer, it would have been a surprise to not see a continuation of this strong buy signal imo.

In light of recent market moves, what is interesting to note now is that we are seeing more of these director sells. It isn't just TRN:

JDW
AJB
AFM
LUCE
WINE
IGR
G4M
888
NXT
GYM

These are interesting moves by insiders which could be suggesting a strong signal on current valuation grounds of many shares and the delivery of future forecasts. The enormous market moves recently has now brought the focus on the delivery.

The way the likes of TRN have moved would suggest that delivery has to be absolutely flawless. The market could possibly forgive a slight hiccup but anything more than that could result in a material de-rating of the shares.

The whole dynamic is now changing from a rally on bad news as the ratings were so low to now having to deliver and possibly selling on any fragile news imo.

The evolving nature of the market cannot be ignored.

All imo

DYOR

[catscats] 04/12/2020 14:18

Gov cutting rail infrastructure spending by £1bln is a bit odd when they have wasted £3.5bln running empty trains. when are they going to reduce the service in line with passenger numbers - still only 50% of normal. Either way this stock is way overvalued - follow the directors lead IMHO

[h0me] 03/12/2020 18:06

Another big director sell! What a surprise. Sell.

[mikerocky] 03/12/2020 11:32

That's a big old sell today. Think the CFO has spotted the top here.

[anderson3] 03/12/2020 10:08

I bet these directors can't believe there luck, managing to sell stock at these prices, way overpriced

[texaspete2] 19/11/2020 16:29

II purchase reported just now. Funds have to have exposure to future tech. They must expect big things from TRN in long term! I would like to know Invesco's rationale though!

[anderson3] 19/11/2020 15:00

How does this keep going up

[texaspete2] 19/11/2020 13:33

For those charting experts, I beleive there is a gap to fill at circa 489p from the end of June. perhaps momentum will take it there at which point I would reopen my short. Also heard on radio today in the news that train companies are forecasting that train travel will only return to 75% of pre covid levels.

[vincentlouise] 19/11/2020 12:33

Still going up

[johndoe23] 18/11/2020 20:10

Looks like resistance has been hit at 465p.Surely can't go any higher?! My short is at the ready!

[h0me] 18/11/2020 15:51

What or who is sustaining a market cap. 2.2billion?

[catscats] 18/11/2020 13:23

can't see travel getting back to normal until well into 2021, so likely to lose money next year. Possible full recovery in 2022, but what would you pay for that...less than the IPO price in my view - short again.

[h0me] 18/11/2020 08:05

Cash burn £5mill a month. Debt £160mill and rising. Broken.

[texaspete2] 11/11/2020 17:10

I agree however the buy volume today does make my short feel a bit weak. I struggle to make much of a bull case here, even with vaccine success. Happy to hear any bullish views.

[johndoe23] 11/11/2020 10:54

Still a short opportunity here

[albert zog] 09/11/2020 20:28

Massive vaccine play

Proper risk off now. Shorts closed. But not methinks a vote for the fundamentals of TRN

[spyingaround] 09/11/2020 20:12

The market can be wrong longer than you can be solvent. Suspect that there could still be a significant upside on this - even after the rise today. Remember it was over £5 a few weeks ago. I know it doesn't make sense, but the market is about sentiment, not sense.

[texaspete2] 09/11/2020 17:03

A mkt cap here of 1.9bn is still ridiculous, vacinne or no vacinne. Hope shorters were able to take some profits, I missed the journey down to sub £3, I'm now short again.

[msehs] 09/11/2020 12:51

FTSE up 5%....Holy smokes

[mcbabs] 09/11/2020 12:22

90 effective apparently

[mcbabs] 09/11/2020 12:21

Potential vaccine

[msehs] 09/11/2020 12:19

40% jump? What happened??

[horndean eagle] 05/11/2020 19:32

I think you need to focus on commentary rather than numbers. They were already growing again in Europe before lockdowns came back in. They took much larger share in the UK in the last 6 months. EU markets are going to open up for them as a result of EU competition regulation. Not surprising how bullish most brokers are.

[johndoe23] 05/11/2020 15:32

Seriously, who sees value in this?!