Trainline Share Discussion Threads

[msehs] 05/11/2020 09:03

It won't stay up for long. That report has no positives whatsoever. Disastrous results with another lock down started today.
Also, using that metric of '% of PY' is laughable. Just report it versus last year, not as a % of last year.

[mcbabs] 05/11/2020 08:15

How can this justify a 10 percent rise on this news?

[blondviking] 01/11/2020 16:22

Most of Europe in lockdown. Nobody is going to be using trains

[albert zog] 21/10/2020 07:45

Mrs Gilmartin knows the score

[blondviking] 21/10/2020 07:32

Trainline boss Clare Gilmartin quits after cashing in shareshttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trainline-boss-clare-gilmartin-quits-after-cashing-in-shares-tlfpqxz75

[blondviking] 12/10/2020 20:33

New covid control measures not going to do much to increase train travel

[mcbabs] 11/10/2020 13:37

Scrolling through top fallers this weekend and glad I did. Going short on monday with stop loss above 400p. Easily see this going to 200p.

[blondviking] 09/10/2020 18:36

Realistically I am looking at sub 150p but expect it could go lower

[frugaltree3] 09/10/2020 16:38

Yes, what do you think is a realistic target price. It looks like consensus is for a loss in 2021 and c.4.9p in 2022 - so 50p to 100p?

Although we may see further downgrades with results on 5th Nov.

And increased worries over the level of debt.

The CEO sale at 400p was the big red flag here.

[blondviking] 09/10/2020 14:16

Market being realistic at last!

[msehs] 08/10/2020 12:10

BBC News story:"Demand for rail travel in Britain fell between April and June compared with last year - with 400 million fewer journeys made, according to the industry's regulator.Passenger revenue was just £184m in the period - down from £2.7bn in 2019."Any recovery in numbers is slow and will not get back to historic levels for many years, if ever.....

[inthemix] 07/10/2020 14:01

CEO dumped at 400p

[texaspete2] 06/10/2020 16:21

Recent US funds increased stake, I bet this also falls into a few other tech funds and naturally benefits from the tech trend and all this printed money has to buy something, even if it is questionable. Some will also be looking at this as a long term investment. Fundamentals will prevail in my view and this should drop, no overseas tourists, no UK business travellers, no families using the train on days out to London and other cities, etc.... According to Gov stats train travel at end of Sept is at 38% since 1st March, so that says it all plus they will be burning cash. A short squeeze in meantime, hold steady!

[anderson3] 06/10/2020 16:10

How is this going up?

[blondviking] 06/10/2020 09:42

One has to question why anybody would invest in this company at this time. Good shorting opportunity!

[frugaltree3] 05/10/2020 09:20

In Sept they were spending £8-9m per month but flagged that they had "brought back most of its furloughed teams and is now dialing up discretionary spend, including its marketing activity".

So they are hosing cash, there is no recovery in sales, the CEO has sold 400 000 shares and the market cap is £1.8bln.

There must be an almighty correction coming. I wonder if the recent Berenberg note and 520p target price is preparing the ground for a fund raise?

Tricky so soon after the CEO offloaded so many??

[albert zog] 25/9/2020 12:52

This TRN looks too good to be a true

A short with at least 50% downside

End market totally screwed and the Govt unlikely to put up with current commission system

What am I missing ?

[blondviking] 24/9/2020 09:56

KX deserted this morning in rush hour. Tried to upload photo but without success
Should break 300p soon

[catscats] 21/9/2020 14:46

saw that the gov want to promote digital ticketing in this shake up. I know that most train lines have their own on-line offering but does anyone think that Trainline could do a deal across the whole network - thereby cutting ticketing costs...?
market doesn't think so today but the drop is probably more to do with 2nd lockdown fears.

[msehs] 21/9/2020 09:16

Significant pull back this morning....

[blondviking] 18/9/2020 09:09

Back to reality this morning

[msehs] 17/9/2020 20:21

Just read the trading update. Laughable that figures for comparisons versus next year are stated as 'the percentage of net ticket sales in the equivalent period in the prior year'! What happened to the regular % age increase/decrease??

It looks better to say 19% of previous year rather than down 81% versus last year maybe??

The only companies that are doing this seem to be the ones worst affected.

Tempted to leave this short bet but I'm actually going to hang on to the start of November when the HY results are out. I am interested to see the profit after tax figures versus previous year, instead of the 'adjusted' EBITDA.

[msehs] 17/9/2020 16:45

At least BOO has growth, this one has nothing!

[inthemix] 17/9/2020 16:20

Yep closed position, seems shares like this are controlled by billionaires, sabotaging all small time PI's. BOO another example.