Trainline Share Discussion Threads

[blondviking] 08/4/2020 14:11

I do not have any of these but the writing is surely on the wall with this one. Where's the income coming from? & with big debt! Understandably it is being shorted quite a bit

[primarch1] 06/4/2020 11:30

Get the feeling this is being short squeezed by the funds so they can dump there shares before the crash due to no one buying tickets as they can't even leave there house next update will be interesting

[mallorca 9] 20/3/2020 13:54

I will be surprised if there isn't a profit warning here on Monday morning.

[technovator] 20/3/2020 07:27

Trains cancellations coming

[mallorca 9] 17/3/2020 08:39

This Companies business model relies on people booking in advance - to take advantage of discount pricing.

I cannot see too many people wanting to book in advance now.

[mallorca 9] 17/3/2020 08:09

Still valued at over £1 billion !

I've been shorting this for a while.

Just a matter of time until it goes under.

[the oxford whale] 16/3/2020 08:33

https://twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/1239461514278588418?s=19Waterloo virtually empty this morning. According to leaked documents covid could be around until mid 2021. This share should be trading in double digits at best.

[mallorca 9] 16/3/2020 08:24

Hitting the buffers

[mallorca 9] 12/3/2020 08:17

Adding to my short.

£260m revenue last year, may be halved or worse this year.
Debt over £200m.

Market Cap £2 billion !! - could well go out of business, and that's before increased competition comes along.

[frugaltree3] 12/3/2020 07:45

Numbers pulled completely for FY21, "Trainline is re-assessing its plans and forecasts for FY 2021. The Group expects to have greater visibility when reporting its full year results on 7th May 2020"

No mention of Operation profit or eps or cashflow.

Nothing on debt - it was c.215m in August.

So we have no guidance on expectations and very little info. on anything else.

Not so bad for management, they all sold significant stakes along with the IPO.

Train wreck in the making.

[frugaltree3] 09/3/2020 11:21

It looks like the UK will follow Italy and move into restrictions on travel, cancellation of sporting events and mass gatherings. The ticket sellers will have to refund anyone who cannot travel, including booking fee.

The statement on Thursday will have to reset expectations - and will likely leave TRN looking overvalued even at these lower levels. Blackrock will bail at the first sign of a downgrade and who would want to buy their shares?

What level do you think these start to offer value? FY21E is currently (till Thurs at 7am) c.12p, so on 20x its 240p.

[mallorca 9] 07/3/2020 09:56

Trading update on Thursday 12 March.

With the debt being carried here this could soon be in serious trouble.

Confident of my short term target of circa 50p.

[mallorca 9] 06/3/2020 08:48

What a lovely short, well into profit now.

Could this be the quickest IPO to go bust ?

[frugaltree3] 05/3/2020 12:46

Looks like Capital were topping up - I wonder what data shows train ticket sales in 2020 beating current forecasts!? Surely there is a warning coming with the update next week?

The chartists have gone quiet sadly, but it looks like 470 is the 100MA, is that important now?

[mallorca 9] 28/2/2020 10:36

Loving this short :-)

[frugaltree3] 28/2/2020 07:29

Thanks, Ennismore are usually worth following - where do you see this data? I think that the next support should be the 100MA at 468 - does that sounds right?

[wantage] 27/2/2020 22:38

Shorts increasing - see Short tracker today.

[mallorca 9] 26/2/2020 09:59

Good post Frugal.

Davros … have you sold or even gone short ?

[frugaltree3] 26/2/2020 09:05

They will have to reveal if FY forecasts are intact with the trading update on 11th March? If they were trading well, KKR would not have ripped up the lock-in to sell in November.

Sites like traintickets.com are winning share easily from TRN as they offer split tickets - so the same product but at significantly lower cost. Likewise the rail operators offer ticket sales directly with no fee.

They will almost certainly blame Coronavirus rather than increasing competition but at 11x sales or 70x earnings there is no room for slippage, even a cautious outlook.

Where is the next support level on the chart please? I think the IPO price of 350p is a near term target - management were sellers there after all.

[mallorca 9] 26/2/2020 08:13

This one now falling nicely.
Train travel may well soon be stopped, or at least people advised to stay at home - due to virus.
The floods will also have caused many cancellations.
The full year results may be savage here.

[mallorca 9] 24/2/2020 21:06

Cheers,

nice DOW profit banked today.

Possibly more to come there.
Sneeked a little long on China at the USA close this evening.

[davr0s] 24/2/2020 19:45

Not even remotely bearish to me atm