Tomco Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rmart] 14/3/2012 12:13

brabazon/harrissen,

Your 'FACTS' have been proven over and over again to be worthless lies.

You just dont know how to stop yourself. I feel sorry for you.

Anyway, i'm off to vegas for a week.... see ya.

[yarisverso] 14/3/2012 11:27

I think that investors will believe an analyst with a great track record, financial qualifications, who knows how to analyse a company properly, as he has shown, goes into print, proves you up to be an idiot. You only ever post your opinion, which has as much value as donkey droppings, from a donkey, which you are. For example spending all weekend saying that RLR would never get a large-scale mining permit, and proven to be a donkey on Monday. You live up to your name as brabazon, a complete failure along with the biggest failure in aviation history along with the Spruce Goose. Get a life moron.

My apologies to donkeys for comparing them to a complete idiot. Most of them make kids happy at the coast. At least they have a life. You are the most negative prat on the planet.

Donkey droppings posts now filtered again:-

brabazon3 - 14 Mar'12 - 11:03 - 7279 of 7281 (Filtered)

brabazon3 - 14 Mar'12 - 11:14 - 7280 of 7281 (Filtered)

[brabazon3] 14/3/2012 11:03

yarisverso - 14 Mar'12 - 08:59 - 7276 of 7278



Less than 8 hours later the obsessive is posting again, and it is full of lies and ignores all the research done by RLR and backed by TOTAL. Read the ecoshale process and stop lying. I suggest that investors read this from an experience analyst, Peter Epstein, who used to run a $3 billion hedge fund, and puts his name to his analysis instead of an obsessive tin-pot idiot with no qualifications:-

.........................

Another lying post from a deluded fool!
Peter Ephstien is a freelance knowall who has allegedly invested in TOM long term and claims he used to work for a multibillion dollar fund manager but does so no longer - I wonder why?

More lying ramping twaddle from yaris/mixy! This is the halfwit who insisted Petrel Resources had block 6 Iraq 'in the bag' at the same time the company was losing a little supply contract on the S&L fields through lack of ability to deliver. He is spouting the same illogical gibberish on here. Red Leaf is a totally different company to TOM.
Small Time explorers like TOM do not get on the radar until they show signs of being at or near production and even if everything goes to plan it will be at least 5 years could be 10 before TOM put any cash in the till. Oil shale is not a bankable asset in itself getting the kerogen out of the heated rock is a time consuming costly business and no money will be invested in TOM until Red Leaf can prove that it is cost effective to produce oil in this way. Meanwhile as I said earlier TOM has to survive on rights issues until they go in to production which could treble the number of shares already in issue. TOM could come good in time but that time is still light years away and putting money in to it now and sit and wait for it to perform in 10 years time is the height of folly IMO!

[ihavenoclue] 14/3/2012 10:54

TOM is boldly going nowhere ... the pump is over and now people still hold waiting for what they think will happen before the full dump starts

[cuthbert cuthbertson senior] 14/3/2012 10:36

R MART GO TO TRAIN STATION AND TELL ENGINE DRIVER THE CHOO CHOO IS STUCK IN REVERSE.

[yarisverso] 14/3/2012 08:59

Less than 8 hours later the obsessive is posting again, and it is full of lies and ignores all the research done by RLR and backed by TOTAL. Read the ecoshale process and stop lying. I suggest that investors read this from an experience analyst, Peter Epstein, who used to run a $3 billion hedge fund, and puts his name to his analysis instead of an obsessive tin-pot idiot with no qualifications:-



And here is his up-date. Note that he uses figures to prove his point and everything he says is based upon his knowledge as an analyst. Brabazon has never run anything except a chicken run.


Email update from a hedge fund analyst on Wall Street (many of you will be aware of from previous)

The following is a summary of my updated valuation exercise for TomCo Energy. The contents of this email are entirely my own thinking and express only my own opinions.

Spot WTI crude ended the day. February 23rd, at $107 per barrel. Plugging that price into my DCF model spits out a valuation of 23p per share. I think it's important to recognize how much the valuation of TomCo moves with these higher oil prices. Each $5 change in the long-term assumed oil price equates to 2.5p per TomCo share. For fun, if oil were to spike to $150 per barrel, then we would be at 40p per share. Actually, a linear extrapolation of my model would produce a NPV of 46p, but I assume that costs rise significantly along with rising oil prices, (which is not necessarily the case by the way).

The other key assumptions are as follows:

Cost per barrel rises to $44.5 per barrel in the initial years of no production, (from $38 per barrel in analyst models) then is flat for the life of the project. And, I assume that the long-term oil price is fixed for the life of the project. Flat costs and prices are more conservative than assuming, like many analysts do, that both costs & realized prices go up by say 2% per year. Escalating both costs and prices makes the margin go up each year.

Instead of first production in early-to-mid 2015, I assume only one capsule is completed in all of 2016, RL is probably expecting first oil in mid-2014, (my guess, not the company's). Just 1 capsule in 2016 compares to the 6 annual capsules that are expected to be reached in the first stage of growth. In addition, I incorporate a slow ramp-up to max production levels. My model has peak annual production in the year 2023, 8 years after first oil. The assumed project life is 20 years, (from 2016) over which ~90mm barrels are assumed to be extracted. 90mm barrels would be 74% of the 123mm barrels identified by SRK.

My model has a 40% contingency on cap-ex and includes $5mm per year of annual maintenance cap-ex that is not included in other analyst's models. Fully diluted shares in my model are 1.725 billion, which assumes a pro forma issuance of 215mm shares at 3.5p each later this year. Finally, and importantly, my 23p valuation at spot WTI of $107 utilizes a 13.5% discount factor. Emerging oil sands projects in Canada are routinely valued with 8%-10% discount factors. The 13.5% rate is an average of 12% and 15%. I strongly believe that if a super-major signs on with Red Leaf, that the discount factor should be 12%, not 13.5%.

Not included in my model is a combined $6 per barrel of margin, (still a conservative figure) for possibility cheaper transport options AND realized prices at a premium to the prevailing WTI price. Both of these outcomes are reasonably likely, but not in my base case. Needless to say, if I were to add $6 in margin and use a 12% discount rate instead of 13.5% and the $107 per barrel long-term oil price, the NPV jumps higher, to approximately 33p from 23p.

Where should TomCo trade vs. the 23p DCF derived NPV? A lot higher than 1.7p. If after a super-major official signs on with Red Leaf TomCo were to trade at a 75% discount to NPV, that would equate to a price of about 6p per share. Said another way, TomCo's current share price is only ~7.5% of its NPV (13.5%, $107). Over the next 2 years, I envision TomCo's discount to NPV declining significantly. 2 years from now, TomCo could be trading at 33% to 50% of its NPV (10%), or 13p-20p per share. This leads me to believe that TomCo will probably be taken out at a price of 15p-20p per share within 2 years.

[darncee] 14/3/2012 06:06

What a well balanced opinion on CRND Rmart. Thanks for posting that RABBITON.

[brabazon3] 14/3/2012 00:43

This is rmart posting on the CRND thread!

Same old, same old!


rmart - 11 Mar'12 - 12:12 - 8 of 8


The more i read about crnd I think we will be taken over. IMO we will be taken out at around 5p. per share.

If anyone can help me out here it would be appreciated but this is what I see from reading up so far.

1. CRND raised money at 2p per share back in July 2010.
2. Mining righrs were suspended and the share price crashed.
3. Mining right issues are settled and the share price has started to recover.
4. The big outstanding issue now is the water table. TACA has agreed the plan and we are awaiting verification it can go ahead.

When this comes the share price will fully recover past 2p and IMO we will see takeover approaches. The pumps issue is expected to be resolved any time now.

Can anyone with better knowledge add to this or question it ?

[brabazon3] 14/3/2012 00:36

rmart - 13 Mar'12 - 21:57 - 22490 of 22491


I can only speak for myself, but I am expecting double figures. Anytime now we will get the already awarded red leaf mining permit officially announced, the JV with a super major with $300m to $400m investment and red leaf announced and questerre investmet in red leaf announced.

These will all lead to TOM being re rated upwards imo.

.......................

Stop talking lying misleading nonsense remart! You got your answer today - 30M TOM SHARES TRADED AND THE PRICE DROPPED! INVESTORS, THANKS TO YOUR BULL AND LIES ARE WELL AWARE THAT TOM will remain suspended in time until RL has got past the demo stage and actually begins full scale commercial production if it ever gets that far! Investors now realise TOM is a totally separate company with little cash left and may have to exist for at least another 5-10 years as a total cash burner and only more dilution left as a vehicle to raise survival money for that period. You still haven't told us how you got the news on Monday. Have you cancelled noli's account with ADVFN ? Its too late for that now you have been sussed!

[ch4p_85] 13/3/2012 23:16

first time ive seen it properly on that website. cheers rmart. i can open it ok... i did basic IT at school see. click. enter username, enter password. click ok. wait two to three seconds... read whilst scrolling down (beware reading and scrolling requires more brain power and therefore may prove difficult for some of you).

[cuthbert cuthbertson senior] 13/3/2012 16:41

RMART WAS LAST SEEN RUNNING DOWN THE STATION LOOKING FOR PLATFORM 10.1/2 HE BUMPED INTO STATION MASTER GOING CHOO CHOO AND WAS TOLD TO TRY WATERLOO!

[riverdiver] 13/3/2012 16:29

Works fine. Just type in ogmguest for both username and password.

[devon12] 13/3/2012 16:20

It works now ..........

[brabazon3] 13/3/2012 16:10

riverdiver - 13 Mar'12 - 11:47 - 22389 of 22453


I could access it earlier but now blocked again.

dougstewart - 13 Mar'12 - 11:49 - 22390 of 22453


exactly, I read the bloody thing about 90 mins ago.

site password now changed.




EDIT: and YES what was posted earlier

....................

Bollux was it changed! I have been trying to open it for the past three days at least and it was locked and is still locked!
Noli is in the sh+te and so is everyone who he alerted to its contents before he posted it on the bbs!

darncee - 13 Mar'12 - 11:49 - 22391 of 22453


You're right. It doesn't work anymore. I can confirm it is what Noli posted, the granting of the large mine permit.
............

It never worked you lying git!!

[maryhopkins] 13/3/2012 16:02

Double top forming...............HELP ME!