Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[tigerbythetail] 25/11/2021 13:30

Hi Sotolo!
Dividend policy is "no less than 15% of PBAT". It's usually been a few percentage points higher than that.
PBAT (I believe) should actually be more than simple EPS (due to the BEE partner). So the yield should be a bit higher than you are calculating.
But, overall, point taken. Tharisa is really a "growth" company which incidentally pays a reasonable dividend.
I think, minus Karo, this should trade higher than currently. It's net debt free, profitable, fast-growing (guidance increasing, chrome costs decreasing), LOM no problem, and well-managed. Just look at the long term graph - it has traded higher than today when the overall business position was far worse.
Karo is (for me) a wild card. I've no idea what an imminent DFS on what seems to be a huge amount of low cost open pittable PGMs adds (or does not add) to the share price. How does the market value that?
Anyway, let's see how the market reacts to the official audited results. As for today, volume has been relatively low - for some reason these JSE-mandated "warning" RNSs just get mostly ignored by the market.

[sotolo] 25/11/2021 12:45

Tiger, if the divi is as usual around 17% of eps (without a special that we hope for) it will yield under 4% at current share price, and that is with elevated profit this year with fab rhodium, so market probably expects the yield to fall back in future so maybe the share price is not so odd. The bad thing about THS is it only pays out 17% or so of profit in divi, the good thing is it uses the other 83% mostly investing for future profit. However investors are never sure if this will come off, is THS really a growth company, we think so but it has such a very lowly PE, maybe around 4, as the market thinks too many dangers, PGM price, politics Aim, chrome etc imho

[sotolo] 25/11/2021 12:45

Tiger, if the divi is as usual around 17% of eps (without a special that we hope for) it will yield under 4% at current share price, and that is with elevated profit this year with fab rhodium, so market probably expects the yield to fall back in future so maybe the share price is not so odd. The bad thing about THS is it only pays out 17% or so of profit in divi, the good thing is it uses the other 83% mostly investing for future profit. However investors are never sure if this will come off, is THS really a growth company, we think so but it has such a very lowly PE, maybe around 4, as the market thinks too many dangers, PGM price, politics Aim, chrome etc imho

[tonytyke2] 25/11/2021 10:06

Fully agree TBTT, and not forgetting this RNS has been released today because results are going to exceed guidance by 20% or more.I have added again today.

[ukgeorge] 25/11/2021 10:03

Another bit of wind in THS sails is the depreciating rand currently 21 to the pound. Near 16 to the dollar the lowest since November 2020

[tigerbythetail] 25/11/2021 09:59

Hi Moneyman!
My EPS estimate was a few cents higher as well.
But there is a danger here that we are not seeing the wood for the trees. We are looking at THS closely, most people in the market are looking at it from a distance. We are seeing an EPS a little lower than we hoped. When the results come out and they finally pay attention, the majority of the market will be seeing a company which has more than doubled its profits over the last year, built a new low-cost chrome processing facility (Vulcan), and increased mine life and guidance (without even mentioning Karo).
So I'm expecting a nice rise in the share price into the end of the year.

[moneyman50] 25/11/2021 08:25

TigerByTheTail-Despite higher PGM and chrome prices it appears Tharisa’s performance in the second half of the year was worse than the first.EPS for the whole year circa 38 cents per share and for the first half of the year 22 cents per share making 16 cents per share for the second half-hence no uplift in share price.
Until the accounts are produced we don’t know what additional write offs have been made and non capitalized costs in relation to the Zimbabwe project,
Based on the first half and average PGM prices for the second half I was anticipating an EPS figure in the mid to high 40 cents

[basem1] 25/11/2021 08:09

Load up whilst you can at these levelsThere should be a decent dividend increase too

[tigerbythetail] 25/11/2021 08:08

It's odd, but these JSE "warning" RNSs are almost always ignored by the market (this is based on a fair amount of experience, not only with THS). The reaction will come after the full results - possibly a few days afterwards.
Why? I don't know. But that seems to be how it is!

[rayrac] 25/11/2021 08:03

Looking at the sp, it must have been priced in? Strange reaction?

[tonytyke2] 25/11/2021 07:22

Cracking news!

[saltraider] 25/11/2021 07:22

Given this crazy market, we can presumably expect the share price to tank on this good news.

[basem1] 25/11/2021 07:07

Nice outcome

[tigerbythetail] 24/11/2021 12:42

Dividends twice a year - with interims and finals.
If my numbers are right, I think we'll get about 4p now, to go along with the interim payout.
(The dividend policy here isn't particularly generous, it's just profits are big, so the yield comes out as pretty impressive, even though this is really a "growth" company.)

[ukgeorge] 24/11/2021 12:19

It is also about time that they announced a dividend :)

[tigerbythetail] 24/11/2021 08:25

This seems a remarkable bargain ATM ahead of results - actual results 2/12 and JSE "warning" RNS any day now.
(The "warning" concerned being that profits should be very high).

[basem1] 23/11/2021 15:50

Weaker metals prices today the reason for the drop

[tigerbythetail] 20/11/2021 10:44

Let's try that again...

www.theindependent.co.zw/2021/11/12/karo-govt-review-us4bn-deal-as-zim-seeks-fair-share-after-very-encouraging-results/

[tigerbythetail] 20/11/2021 10:44

[...]

Copied from LSE - news about Karo...

[sailing john] 18/11/2021 10:54

As usual the market has completely missed this so I managed to add a few at under 133 on the pull back. There is a massive difference in mining cost above vs underground. I suppose most will wait for tip sheets to point out the obvious!

Looking forward to results and Karo update over next 2 weeks.
GL SJ

[thirty fifty twenty] 18/11/2021 10:37

i also thought it was an excellent RNS.
- do others think this news was known / already priced in?

i know that the life of the mine was always known,
but the fact it can be Open Pit is a major reduction in cost and risks,
additionally it defers the development cost of under ground mining into the horizon.

i think the icing on the cake then is that the more secure income from the longer life
(b/c lower cost=higher profitability and lower risks),
means that they will be able to fund extensive development of the projects in Zim.

i am not a mining expert but this seems to be a win/win/win.
i presume as well that with Open Pit mining it is relatively easier to increase volume if they so wished etc...
and luckily we have a CEO that will be happy to promote the company.

the chart is beginning to look very good to me,
so fingers crossed and time will tell.

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
THS is in my top5 hldgs

[tigerbythetail] 18/11/2021 08:33

Yes, excellent RNS.
Mine life was never really a problem here, but it's good to see the extension of the open pit for several more years.
Looking forward to the annual results. And also the "warning" JSE-mandated RNS that should come before it - the "warning" being that profits are massively up on last year.

[basem1] 18/11/2021 08:15

Significant news Surprised about the slow start to trading this morning

[mfhmfh] 17/11/2021 18:12

'Morgan Stanley says the semiconductor chip shortage for the auto industry is nearly over'.

hxxps://www.forexlive.com/news/!/morgan-stanley-says-the-semiconductor-chip-shortage-for-the-auto-industry-is-nearly-over-20211116

[redtrend] 15/11/2021 11:11

You have to remember Zimplats was forced to relinquish the Karo Resources assets... but you never know

With Karo initially being open pit, even though its a monster asset, hopefully it may surprise that the initial capex will be manageable, with right financing package THS may be able to develop it on its own