Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[tigerbythetail] 21/9/2021 08:58

I read it that way.
Of course, the future is dark, and any number of things could happen before then. But (IMO) it's reasonable to assume that where there is a willing buyer who is ready to pay good money, as there clearly is in this case, then most industries will find a way to supply fairly quickly.
Signs of the times - in US and UK there are reports that used cars are occasionally selling at a premium to list prices for new ones. Also, dealer inventories at record lows - if you're buying, be prepared to either compromise on colour or specification or to wait, or possibly both.
Rhodium up $500 today on JMAT, though Kitco for some reason known only to themselves have marked it down $200. Palladium doing notably worse over the last few days - perhaps because its fundamentals are poorer, perhaps because there is more shorting going on via Nymex. At some point there is going to be a short squeeze in Pt and Pd, but I'm staying out of it until at least Thursday (U.S. Fed news and Evergrande developments).

[tonytyke2] 21/9/2021 08:37

Indicates automotive semiconductor shortages to be mitigated by the year end. I assume they are talking about 2021 year end?

[tigerbythetail] 21/9/2021 07:36

Source info on automotive chip shortage...

www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prAP48247621

Courtesy of Luna Nera on the SLP board - thanks!

[professor liar] 21/9/2021 03:59

hi tiger

Got any good tips ?

[tonytyke2] 20/9/2021 15:38

I think I would agree on the Plat ETF, I may join you on the trip! The current position will change very soon here.

[tigerbythetail] 20/9/2021 15:15

Also worth noting that palladium market is now net short, and the platinum market quite heavily net short. All long speculation has now been washed out.
I'll wait for Evergrande to play out a bit more, but I'm thinking a platinum ETF long at these prices might be a decent proposition.

[tonytyke2] 20/9/2021 14:49

Small tick up again today for Rhodium, stability and some increased demand returning?

[tigerbythetail] 20/9/2021 07:29

Hi Sotolo!
For your CEY comparison, I think you have to allow for the fact that Centamin (CEY) has about 21p per share of cash and no debts. At 10p CEY would be buy of the millennium. Even at 30p I'd be piling in.
But, then again, THS is net debt free right now and the cash is piling up quickly. So it does seem to be exceedingly cheap.
Personally, I'm not buying anything(*) until I see that the Evergrande bankruptcy is on its way to being resolved in such a way that it doesn't set off market contagion (a la Lehman Brothers). Once that risk is cleared, I'll be adding at these levels.
(*) Is it time to be thinking about shorting some of the more ridiculously overvalued US tech names?

[sotolo] 19/9/2021 18:10

Thanks Plat. Interestingly I read that Global vehicle sales are expected by McInsey to rise a bit more slowly in this decade than the last. About 2% a year. Obviously electric world share will grow more than that, which implies falling ice sales and a rhodium surplus. However the big question is how many vehicles are currently sold without cats in the third world that will need them legally, or better ones, and if this will more than obviate the overall ICE production worldwide? Any thoughts? This also perhaps weighs on THS price

[plat hunter] 19/9/2021 10:52

I also think the risk of ev's to pgm and hydro carbons for that matter, is over played.Just taking India for example, they're decades away from being able to even think of becoming an EV only country. Similar story over in Africa, then there's the middle east, without hydrocarbons there's no economy for them. This isn't a quick fix solution for rich western cities. It's a global problem, with global consequences of cause and effect. Hybrids with ever more efficient cat's will be in demand for decades yet imo.

[sotolo] 18/9/2021 20:57

To put it another way if Centamin was on the same PE as Tharisa it’s share price would be 10p, and I would certainly buy Centamin at 10p, even if I expected gold to fall.

On rhodium prices, from today’s FT “it takes:only a small swing in the balance of supply and demand in commodity markets for prices to soar or sink”. So slightly lower car production or more electric can lead to the slump we are in, plus the excess supply will leave an overhang. But if ice production rises maybe 10% again next year then price should soar. Sadly the current slump is entirely explicable and has further to go. Happily Tharisa is still very cheap, though steel prices have halved so will cho I’m follow?

[tonytyke2] 18/9/2021 08:07

I see that the price for Rhodium was up by a further 250 dollars on Friday's last price update. So quite a bounce overall in the day.

[sotolo] 17/9/2021 19:57

Marin, Actually I did post on rhodium rising yesterday, I said this is a bounce in oversold rhodium, and then it will turn back down, as others have also said here as seems likely for all the reasons I have said before and which have led to the three fold fall. However there is no need for you to believe what I say if you don’t want to, you may be right that rhodium soars up now and me wrong, I hope so. As said I buy and hold because the company is still cheap with rh at $5000. Now stop being grumpy and if you appreciate Tharisa as I do, top up oh and have a lovely weekend

[tonytyke2] 17/9/2021 16:07

Have a good weekend Martin!

[martinfrench] 17/9/2021 15:36

its funny sotolo, you post endlessly about rhodium falls and then it rises 10% and you say nothing ? strange isnt it, and dont believe a word you say.

people that are negative on things dont tend to buy / hold unless you are the worst investor in the world

i can see a situation where the mkt will pay us to take rhodium off our hands, i mean its that pointless and worthless now isnt it ?

[tonytyke2] 17/9/2021 14:25

Thanks TBTT, will give it a read this weekend.Thanks for your ongoing comments, valued research and input. Really appreciated!Have a good weekend.TT

[tigerbythetail] 17/9/2021 09:39

The latest Heraeus report is well worth reading. Many of our questions answered!

www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/palladium_standard/HPM_-_The_Palladium_Standard_2021.pdf#msdynttrid=oCHhpb_riwx9TU0xuY67p-IpJMiZz3NJclsc8yuInxc

[tonytyke2] 17/9/2021 09:06

Ok, so Rhodium up around 10% this morning on Johnson Matthey base prices.

[sotolo] 17/9/2021 06:59

Great conversations. I am not glum always,I just thought PGM’s were overpriced and would fall, and more so recently as slip from deficit to surplus with chip shortage, which surplus as Tiger says may take a while to work itself out. I continue to hold, as Tiger and other point out, for this being worth its value on chromium alone, so PGM’s are cream. I see no inconsistency in holding as I consider very undervalued while expecting this PGM rise to just be a bounce in PGM prices before the fall continues. Our share price will probably go lower, that is not gloom just rational expectation, but as I consider fundamentally undervalued and I am not a trader, I shall continue to hold because of my OPTIMISM, that fundamentals will out in the end plus this year we should make a third of our valuation alone!

[tonytyke2] 16/9/2021 21:34

Thanks Wimbled.

[tonytyke2] 16/9/2021 21:33

Thanks TigerByTheTail, I have been reading more recently due to all the logistics issues, that some car manufacturers are now moving from a 'just in time' build model to a 'stockpiling' approach.

This could start having a positive effect on the Rhodium price itself, the chip issue should also start resolving itself from Q4-21 onwards.

Thanks for your help, I am looking to add more around this price, but need to raid my wife's piggy bank first....Ha Ha!

[tigerbythetail] 16/9/2021 19:56

Hi Tony!
IMO, it's better to use the JMAT (Johnson Matthey) price tables for rhodium, which change 4 times every day. They represent the price JMAT are asking for rhodium sponge, which is what the car industry uses in cats (c. 87% of total Rh demand).
I believe (?) the Kitco price reflects the tiny market in rhodium coins and bullion, and it bounces around with incredible volatility. In particular, when rhodium drops Kitco lets the bottom fall out of their price - I think because they don't want to buy any rhodium coins in a falling market.
(Kitco prices for platinum and palladium are good, though - they reflect the spot market in these two metals, which are freely traded).
But, yes, rhodium does seem to have stopped falling, and even bounced a bit. Hopefully, automotive buyers are coming in at this "bargain" price.

[wimbled] 16/9/2021 18:26

I've shares in PAF and their BB header has displays PM prices including Rh. Link below.

https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=11167530

https://www.kitconet.com/images/quotes_7a.gif

[tonytyke2] 16/9/2021 18:00

So is that around a 15 % increase in the Rhodium price this afternoon on Kitco.....Mmmmmmm.

[redtrend] 16/9/2021 15:14

The future Chrome profits can be forecast from the last Interims. With a Chrome AISC of under $100tn and so as not to "superglue your crystal ball", you have to apply 2MT of Chrome. So at Chrome $175tn, margin of $75tn x 2MT = $150m, before SA Corp Tax and BEE Interest. And that's being conservative considering the 2MT Chrome increase through Vulcan Project adds little cost and will push down cost per tonne through economies of scale.

Being extremely bearish short-term and bearish long-term on the main commodities THS mines is a bizarre combo to stay invested in.

I happen to disagree with the prognosis ICE cars will be in decline as a total produced any time soon and any incremental decrease will be outweighed by the increase in PGM loadings per car. In 2008 a group of "experts" predicted there would be no ICE cars by 2020... Quite. The same on these 2030/2035 targets will come to pass. The UK is already way out on their target and will be compounded over the years. EU auto makers have already started their lobbying to push any deadline from 2035 to 2040. There is a complete lack of infrastructure, step change in technology (batteries, charging times etc.) no plan on how lithium/ cobalt mining will be ramped up (clue - it can't, unless Cornwall is the Saudi Arabia of Lithium!) and I have no idea when this pie in the sky new battery tech Canetoad mentions on LSE board with no lithium will be ready to actually roll out.

Rather than us arm-chair experts try and 2nd guess PGM demand, JM is far better placed:

hxxps://matthey.com/-/media/files/pgm-market-report/jm-pgm-market-report-may-2021.pdf