Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[tigerbythetail] 14/1/2022 14:36

Yep, I've screwed up here, Tharisa is indeed JSE:THA.
BUT, it is true that Berenberg have rated Tharisa a buy today and raised their target price from 180p to 200p. And that LSE:THG (The Hut Group) remains a lousy investment proposition (and then some).
Sorry all. Went to a party in Downing Street last night and still getting over the hangover.

[jon4567] 14/1/2022 11:51

I'm pretty sure it's THA in Johannesburg. Currently trading at just over £1.30 equivalent

[scubadiverr] 14/1/2022 10:17

Quite, which is why I ask. I wasn't sure if you were cross ramping dross! I had thought better of you - Pleased it was not the case.

[tigerbythetail] 14/1/2022 09:46

Hi Scubadiverr!
Tharisa is THS in London (AIM:THS) and THG in Johnanesburg (JSE:THG).
Please note, in London THG is The Hut Group, which IMO is a total bargepole stock!

[scubadiverr] 14/1/2022 09:22

Thg or ths?

[tigerbythetail] 14/1/2022 09:14

Berenberg reiterate Buy rating on THG and raise price target from £1.80 to £2.00

[tigerbythetail] 13/1/2022 13:45

Well, I'm happy with Tharisa's progress as a company, if not with the share price action today. Production numbers are excellent all round, and 47.7K PGM ounces is a very good start to the year.
I see Karo news, the final dividend payment, PGM and chrome prices, and ultimately the interims as share price drivers over the next few months.
Or perhaps all it takes for this to rerate upwards is for one decent-sized buyer to appear...

[sotolo] 13/1/2022 12:09

Tiger, buy on the rumour, sell on the news. This was all as expected, no change to the 2022 guidance etc, so the buyers had bought before and some take profits.

[lennonsalive] 13/1/2022 08:59

Always good dividends from THS, but never any decent progression in share price

[tigerbythetail] 13/1/2022 08:34

Why on earth has the share price set off south on those results?
(Yes, rhodium has slipped back a bit, but the results themselves were excellent. 47.5K ounces of PGMs in a quarter, Vulcan coming fully online etc. Seriously, folks, how could they be better?)
I remain curious / potentially concerned about Karo in Zimbabwe. Obviously Tharisia can't release the DFS and their plans until they've got some kind of sign off from the government there. But I do note that Phoevos terms it "world class" in this RNS. That's a term with a precise meaning in mining.

[tonytyke2] 13/1/2022 07:28

Look like very strong production numbers to me, I'm still a happy holder!

[sotolo] 13/1/2022 06:31

Although 2022 guidance remains the same the Last sentence is best “ We remain firmly on track to deliver, and hopefully exceed, our stated guidance of 165 koz to 175 koz PGMs and 1.75 Mt to 1.85 Mt of chrome concentrates in the current financial year.”

[catsick] 13/1/2022 06:02

Results out early in South Africa , seem pretty decent with record pgm and chrome production, Achieved prices lower but that was know and improved since

[catsick] 13/1/2022 03:24

Also interesting that jubilee also dual listed trades at the same price pretty much in London and joburg

[sailing john] 12/1/2022 20:22

"catsick11 Jan '22 - 12:36 - 1182 of 1183
The cheapness of the London shares has widened out to 13% under the zar ones… 124p in London 141 in joburg"

Good spot and I note the PDMR sell today in Joburg was at circa 138p vs 122p London. Perhaps he'll buy them back over here!

[sotolo] 12/1/2022 06:27

Rh down $609, hopefully a healthy correction before onward and upward rather than the other way round, but slightly denting ths

[catsick] 11/1/2022 12:36

The cheapness of the London shares has widened out to 13% under the zar ones... 124p in London 141 in joburg

[tigerbythetail] 11/1/2022 11:55

Yes, this is an SLP paid for sell-side note.
But it's not far away from the Heraeus and JMAT outlooks, which are fully independent. FWIW, I mostly agree with its conclusions. In all of this, the speed of adoption of full EVs is a key factor, yes. I think that lithium mining and grid and charging station constraints will mean EV adoption comes a little slower than many think. But that's only my opinion.
Anyway, here's another article on rhodium:
www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2290197-pgms-rhodium-prices-jump-on-rising-demand

[loglorry1] 11/1/2022 11:18

"I think the report to introduce key future themes and impacts on metals/PGM's is all good and I am fully on board with that"

It's a sell side note. They will omit anything that negatively impacts PGMs. If paid to do otherwise Edison can write a not saying that EVs will seriously impact demand for catalytic coverters.

[loglorry1] 11/1/2022 11:16

"In which case, loglorry, how do you make your investment decisions?"

You pay a low multiple when buying a miner and try to buy low cost production at the right time in the cycle. In addition THS is bringing more production online and is growing that way too.

Also there is a big difference between forecasting PGM prices and knowing that there will be continued demand in a space with constrained low cost supply. There is absolutely no shortage of low cost Iron Ore for example.

Lastly, predicting multi-year pricing is even more daft. Nobody really knows how quickly EVs will take market share. Nobody has a clue when the car chip shortages will end. Nobody had a clue that the car chip shortages would even be a thing a year or so ago. The longer out you forecast the bigger the errors which is why I think a 2030 forecast is just silly.

Shorter term one can say a bit more and trade/invest accordingly.

[tonytyke2] 11/1/2022 10:15

I think the report to introduce key future themes and impacts on metals/PGM's is all good and I am fully on board with that e.g. we see the future bright for this one or less bright for this one. I would keep it at that.But then to be forecasting many many years of future price predictions does not work for me at all. Just indicating gold is going to continually fall for many years .....really! Only need to get inflation to keep kicking on from here and that may whack that prediction.There are so many, many different things that could impact those price predictions from 6/7/8 years from here. They probably need to keep a baseline report and then monitor the continual ongoing impacts to their future price predictions. IMO there would be many changes.

[tigerbythetail] 11/1/2022 09:35

In which case, loglorry, how do you make your investment decisions?
You might as well blindfold yourself and throw a dart at aboard with the names of companies on it.
For myself, I believe we can make informed guesses at the future, and I find the ones in the Edison Report to be reasonably credible. (IMO, iridium has more upside than they allow, and palladium more downside, but in general, I think the report is thematically correct).

[loglorry1] 11/1/2022 08:18

Nobody has a clue where PGM prices will be next year let alone 2030. It's total nonsense.

[sotolo] 11/1/2022 07:27

Ps interesting they see gold falling continuously for the next 8 years, rhuthenium and iridium are the only ones to rise, by 20% over the next 8 years, but are only a v small part of our basket.