Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[sotolo] 28/9/2021 09:03

Ps if I read it right the report is pretty scary as it says if auto demand for PGMs remains constant then newlY mined demand will fall by near 20% by 2025, or if auto demand rises by 20% newLy mined demand will stay about flat? Am I reading it right? Makes chrome even more important? Thanks Tiger for deciphering for me.

[sotolo] 28/9/2021 08:56

Thanks as ever Tiger. So they say recycling is expected to increase from 36% to 45% of demand reducing newly mined from 64% to 55% and they say further down “ with such a high proportion of palladium’s demand coming from the auto market (81%), the price is very vulnerable to further losses as the chip shortage crisis shows no sign of abating…Further cuts to light- vehicle production forecasts for both 2021 and 2022 also impact the rhodium market significantly, with 89% of its end-use attributed to autocatalyst demand. The latest round of cuts to vehicle production reduces demand in 2022 and could apply further downward pressure to the price”. So my big question is with PGM prices not looking that rosy (tho of course we are priced for them being lower imho) what of chromium? I find it hard working out the price and it’s movements as Chrom concentrate CIF China is down 8.45% this month,in port down 2%, FOB SA it is flat. I keep worrying that the big drop in iron and steel in China will affect stainless steel but is it happening? Tiger how do you find out, having led me to my daily JM fix, or wail? I Still think it’s worth sticking this out with THS, huge profits this year and even if quartered next year still fair value, unless of course metals fall more in huge recession. All Imho of course, anyone annoyed by my posts please just ignore, they are genuine info and questions.

[tigerbythetail] 28/9/2021 08:37

Latest Heraeus market update...
www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/en_6/Appraisal_20210927.pdf#msdynttrid=hS3WfiUg7xJE3EKU4le-gXzo_6z6a4SqcAXajR1r_zo

[martinfrench] 27/9/2021 21:21

hxxps://www.newzimbabwe.com/tharisa-to-consider-its-zim-platinum-project-proposal-by-end-of-year/

anyone seen this ?

[ukgeorge] 26/9/2021 16:11

These are such a good buy at this price

[sotolo] 24/9/2021 16:46

Thanks Martin, yes indeed I am exceedingly pleased to see rh rising,and to read Tharisa tweeting today that their basket is higher than all their main peers, however I am still worried this is a dead cat bounce but do hope the rise is for real. Great that you have taken to posting frequently on this board helping keep it alive along with the likes of the wonderfully perceptive Tiger. It is so useful to have different views so I am deeply appreciative of yours, when not personal, and respect them. Have a lovely weekend and may the rh rise continue as Palladium and Platinum turn back down.

[martinfrench] 24/9/2021 15:27

rhodium up to 14500, last ny fixing, keeps sotolo quiet, he is prob pleased because he is a holder....

[tigerbythetail] 24/9/2021 11:41

FYI: Tharisa have a new look website - Tharisa.com.
Much more "human" than the old one, with a bigger emphasis on corporate governance and ESG. IMO, a job well done.

[martinfrench] 24/9/2021 11:23

wouldnt call rhodium incredibly volatile tiger, it moves between 1 and 3 percent a day on almost all days, more than oil but less than palladium (these days at any rate)

it is quite volatile over a 6 month period though

[tigerbythetail] 24/9/2021 09:32

And rhodium now $14,400 / oz this morning.
Still, I think we should be looking more at THS's overall profitability (which is superb), than following the incredibly volatile rhodium price day to day.

[tonytyke2] 23/9/2021 09:24

Rhodium opening up in London 200 higher again this morning, now 13700 US$ per troy oz. I took a Platinum long on Tuesday and added more here also.

Hello PastaBelly, you are welcome to join our conversations/discussions!

[pastabelly] 23/9/2021 09:10

As a long time lurker with nothing practical to add, may I just say what a cracking board with excellent contributors you have here!

Thank you all.

[martinfrench] 23/9/2021 09:08

gently rising rh price and sotolo nice and quiet, prefer that from both angles

[tonytyke2] 21/9/2021 11:21

Well at least we both read it that way. I am now taking this as an indicator why there appears to be some very recent stabilisation & buying interest in Rhodium.Interestingly, Volkswagen US plans that even when they can produce any future model and they have all the chips they need, they are going to continue to keep fewer cars (like now) in lots/forecourts. This is because this is more profitable for dealers and manufacturers. So I can see some car manufacturers may spin the chip crisis news for a long time to come.

[tigerbythetail] 21/9/2021 09:58

I read it that way.
Of course, the future is dark, and any number of things could happen before then. But (IMO) it's reasonable to assume that where there is a willing buyer who is ready to pay good money, as there clearly is in this case, then most industries will find a way to supply fairly quickly.
Signs of the times - in US and UK there are reports that used cars are occasionally selling at a premium to list prices for new ones. Also, dealer inventories at record lows - if you're buying, be prepared to either compromise on colour or specification or to wait, or possibly both.
Rhodium up $500 today on JMAT, though Kitco for some reason known only to themselves have marked it down $200. Palladium doing notably worse over the last few days - perhaps because its fundamentals are poorer, perhaps because there is more shorting going on via Nymex. At some point there is going to be a short squeeze in Pt and Pd, but I'm staying out of it until at least Thursday (U.S. Fed news and Evergrande developments).

[tonytyke2] 21/9/2021 09:37

Indicates automotive semiconductor shortages to be mitigated by the year end. I assume they are talking about 2021 year end?

[tigerbythetail] 21/9/2021 08:36

Source info on automotive chip shortage...

www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prAP48247621

Courtesy of Luna Nera on the SLP board - thanks!

[professor liar] 21/9/2021 04:59

hi tiger

Got any good tips ?

[tonytyke2] 20/9/2021 16:38

I think I would agree on the Plat ETF, I may join you on the trip! The current position will change very soon here.

[tigerbythetail] 20/9/2021 16:15

Also worth noting that palladium market is now net short, and the platinum market quite heavily net short. All long speculation has now been washed out.
I'll wait for Evergrande to play out a bit more, but I'm thinking a platinum ETF long at these prices might be a decent proposition.

[tonytyke2] 20/9/2021 15:49

Small tick up again today for Rhodium, stability and some increased demand returning?

[tigerbythetail] 20/9/2021 08:29

Hi Sotolo!
For your CEY comparison, I think you have to allow for the fact that Centamin (CEY) has about 21p per share of cash and no debts. At 10p CEY would be buy of the millennium. Even at 30p I'd be piling in.
But, then again, THS is net debt free right now and the cash is piling up quickly. So it does seem to be exceedingly cheap.
Personally, I'm not buying anything(*) until I see that the Evergrande bankruptcy is on its way to being resolved in such a way that it doesn't set off market contagion (a la Lehman Brothers). Once that risk is cleared, I'll be adding at these levels.
(*) Is it time to be thinking about shorting some of the more ridiculously overvalued US tech names?

[sotolo] 19/9/2021 19:10

Thanks Plat. Interestingly I read that Global vehicle sales are expected by McInsey to rise a bit more slowly in this decade than the last. About 2% a year. Obviously electric world share will grow more than that, which implies falling ice sales and a rhodium surplus. However the big question is how many vehicles are currently sold without cats in the third world that will need them legally, or better ones, and if this will more than obviate the overall ICE production worldwide? Any thoughts? This also perhaps weighs on THS price

[plat hunter] 19/9/2021 11:52

I also think the risk of ev's to pgm and hydro carbons for that matter, is over played.Just taking India for example, they're decades away from being able to even think of becoming an EV only country. Similar story over in Africa, then there's the middle east, without hydrocarbons there's no economy for them. This isn't a quick fix solution for rich western cities. It's a global problem, with global consequences of cause and effect. Hybrids with ever more efficient cat's will be in demand for decades yet imo.