Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[nk104] 05/10/2021 10:59

Looks like very good news.

[croasdalelfc] 05/10/2021 06:41

https://www.overend.co.za/download/sens-rns-vulcan-cold-commissioning-5oct21.pdf

[tonytyke2] 01/10/2021 09:43

Thanks for the link TBTT, I am sticking with my Platinum long e.g supply constraints, stricter emission rules, overall easing of car chip issues etc.This does back up my previous posts now with research now indicating that car manufacturers may want to keep prioritising their higher margin products aka VW comments.

[tigerbythetail] 01/10/2021 08:59

Platinum Investment Council on auto chip shortage. I think they are mainly concerned with putting the boot into palladium...
platinuminvestment.com/files/993245/WPIC_Platinum_Perspectives_September_2021.pdf

[sotolo] 28/9/2021 14:41

tonytyke 2 agree with you. Interesting article by Ambrose Evans Pritchard in todays Telegraph about China “… That means drastic falls in steel output. It has already begun and is hammering iron ore prices, along with miners such as Vale and BHP Billiton.” He has sold most of his share portfolio seeing a big fall coming in markets inc bonds. Soaring Gas/energy prices have put a brake on growth but just as Goldman etc call for a gas rise ever further, they have peaked as demand for energy will tumble as hit recession, as happened with the rhodium bubble. Presumably chromium will be heavily hit, but while THS may take a tumble ultimately with the market, it is a very profitable company with a great balance sheet. I wonder with what is looming whether they will choose to pay out that special dividend or hoard more cash. I too hold tho perhaps against my better judgement, also the PM miners tho they will probably tumble too with the market? Strange times

[tonytyke2] 28/9/2021 11:11

IMO the car chip issue is also getting exacerbated by car companies putting orders in significantly beyond what they actually need.

The US government is trying to work out if chip hoarding is now going on and if orders being requested are vastly more than required. The article below indicates car companies met with, have not divulged the chips they have on hand and how many they need to purchase. Bloomberg reports that the government has been asking for this information for months, to no avail. They now may choose a formal/legal route to get this information.

hxxps://www.caranddriver.com/news/amp37727004/feds-dpa-chip-shortage-auto-manufacturing/

You have to bear in mind the IDS semiconductor report linked by TBTT on the 21/09. This outlined that significantly more automotive semiconducters would be made this year and the shortage issue would be mitigated by this year end. Please note this report is not a car industry led report.

Then when you start looking at current car profitability, and some companies may be happy the way things are now, what about VW for instance. Record first half profits in 2021 and raised profit outlook for the rest of the year. Selling their premium vehicles at those high prices.

Even if it's a little difficult seeing through and navigating what will happen with PGM's in the short/medium term, this is a quality value stock with a nice dividend. So I am staying put and adding on any further weakness.

[martinfrench] 28/9/2021 10:14

tbtt,

to answer your point, not all chips are the same, chips used in appliances i think are the more basic types, whereas car chips for dashboards etc are the high end variety so cannot be simply swapped out, or priced out, way i see it anyway

[tigerbythetail] 28/9/2021 09:28

From the graphs I read:
1. Car production due to increase to 100m vehicles per year by 2025 (it's just they've revised down the number of vehicles to be built this year and next);
2. (Not from the graphs) PGM loadings will increase per vehicle as worldwide emissions regulations become tighter and tighter;
3. PGM mine supply (the graph shows the growth and decline of mine supply, not its absolute level) will be about stable;
4. PGM recycling supply from spent catalytic converters will grow.
The graphs don't include any info about the penetration of pure battery EVs into the market, but over this time frame (out to 2025) it won't be a huge effect).
In short, 2023 should be a good year for PGMs (Rh best performer, Pd worst?).
Not sure about the immediate future, though. Too much "fog of war".

[tigerbythetail] 28/9/2021 09:21

TBH, I'm a bit confused by PGMs right now. I certainly never expected the automotive chip shortage to be so severe and so prolonged! One thing I don't understand is why the auto companies can't simply price the other users of chips (home appliances, toys etc.) out of the supply-constrained market by simply paying more. The cost of a chip makes up a tiny proportion of the cost of a car, but a much larger part of the cost of a home appliance. The whole chip shortage thing is as clear as mud to me - and everybody seems to have a different take on when it will end.
IMO the palladium price has a weaker base case than the rhodium price, due to increased recycling, some increased mine supply and substitution (BASF's new tri-metal catalyst partially substitutes Pt for Pd for gasoline cars). Fortunately, Pd is a much smaller % of revenues for THS than Rh!
Current chrome prices are very difficult to find out - Metal Bulletin have become much cannier in hiding them behind their (expensive) paywall. I believe they hit a high of $180/t but have now come down a bit.
IMO, we need to watch China carefully. Strange things are happening there, and I don't know what they mean. Will the collapse of Evergrande lead to a downturn in China's housing market? This would be a big deal if it happened for iron ore prices etc., and there would be some knock-on to chrome demand as well, I'm sure. Why is China suffering power-cuts, and will that limit ferrochrome smelting (a huge power-user)? Is China going to get aggressive towards Taiwan? (This is one scenario that would cause me to sell my Tharisa shares - Taiwan is the world's leading supplier of chips, auto production worldwide would be crippled if China ever did invade the island). Is the world eventually going to split into two economic blocs?
I'm still holding here. But overall, I'm becoming very cautious about stocks in general. I don't know why, but I sense that bad times are coming.

[sotolo] 28/9/2021 09:03

Ps if I read it right the report is pretty scary as it says if auto demand for PGMs remains constant then newlY mined demand will fall by near 20% by 2025, or if auto demand rises by 20% newLy mined demand will stay about flat? Am I reading it right? Makes chrome even more important? Thanks Tiger for deciphering for me.

[sotolo] 28/9/2021 08:56

Thanks as ever Tiger. So they say recycling is expected to increase from 36% to 45% of demand reducing newly mined from 64% to 55% and they say further down “ with such a high proportion of palladium’s demand coming from the auto market (81%), the price is very vulnerable to further losses as the chip shortage crisis shows no sign of abating…Further cuts to light- vehicle production forecasts for both 2021 and 2022 also impact the rhodium market significantly, with 89% of its end-use attributed to autocatalyst demand. The latest round of cuts to vehicle production reduces demand in 2022 and could apply further downward pressure to the price”. So my big question is with PGM prices not looking that rosy (tho of course we are priced for them being lower imho) what of chromium? I find it hard working out the price and it’s movements as Chrom concentrate CIF China is down 8.45% this month,in port down 2%, FOB SA it is flat. I keep worrying that the big drop in iron and steel in China will affect stainless steel but is it happening? Tiger how do you find out, having led me to my daily JM fix, or wail? I Still think it’s worth sticking this out with THS, huge profits this year and even if quartered next year still fair value, unless of course metals fall more in huge recession. All Imho of course, anyone annoyed by my posts please just ignore, they are genuine info and questions.

[tigerbythetail] 28/9/2021 08:37

Latest Heraeus market update...
www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/en_6/Appraisal_20210927.pdf#msdynttrid=hS3WfiUg7xJE3EKU4le-gXzo_6z6a4SqcAXajR1r_zo

[martinfrench] 27/9/2021 21:21

hxxps://www.newzimbabwe.com/tharisa-to-consider-its-zim-platinum-project-proposal-by-end-of-year/

anyone seen this ?

[ukgeorge] 26/9/2021 16:11

These are such a good buy at this price

[sotolo] 24/9/2021 16:46

Thanks Martin, yes indeed I am exceedingly pleased to see rh rising,and to read Tharisa tweeting today that their basket is higher than all their main peers, however I am still worried this is a dead cat bounce but do hope the rise is for real. Great that you have taken to posting frequently on this board helping keep it alive along with the likes of the wonderfully perceptive Tiger. It is so useful to have different views so I am deeply appreciative of yours, when not personal, and respect them. Have a lovely weekend and may the rh rise continue as Palladium and Platinum turn back down.

[martinfrench] 24/9/2021 15:27

rhodium up to 14500, last ny fixing, keeps sotolo quiet, he is prob pleased because he is a holder....

[tigerbythetail] 24/9/2021 11:41

FYI: Tharisa have a new look website - Tharisa.com.
Much more "human" than the old one, with a bigger emphasis on corporate governance and ESG. IMO, a job well done.

[martinfrench] 24/9/2021 11:23

wouldnt call rhodium incredibly volatile tiger, it moves between 1 and 3 percent a day on almost all days, more than oil but less than palladium (these days at any rate)

it is quite volatile over a 6 month period though

[tigerbythetail] 24/9/2021 09:32

And rhodium now $14,400 / oz this morning.
Still, I think we should be looking more at THS's overall profitability (which is superb), than following the incredibly volatile rhodium price day to day.

[tonytyke2] 23/9/2021 09:24

Rhodium opening up in London 200 higher again this morning, now 13700 US$ per troy oz. I took a Platinum long on Tuesday and added more here also.

Hello PastaBelly, you are welcome to join our conversations/discussions!

[pastabelly] 23/9/2021 09:10

As a long time lurker with nothing practical to add, may I just say what a cracking board with excellent contributors you have here!

Thank you all.

[martinfrench] 23/9/2021 09:08

gently rising rh price and sotolo nice and quiet, prefer that from both angles