Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[coco2020] 27/7/2021 07:59

Excellent post from tones77777 this morning on the THS valuation. '' I notice that SLP have had their quarterly update released today for quarter ending June 30th, 2021. A high level comparison between Tharisa's results for the same period 30th June 2021 shows the following SLP (Taken from RNS dated 27/07) PGM Production (4E basis) for the quarter - 16,289 koz Conversion to 6E for comparison for Tharisa - 23,270 koz (based on a ratio ?of 10/7) Revenue for the Quarter - $48.7 mil EBITDA - $28.7 mil Tharisa (Taken from RNS dated 09/07) PGM Production (6E basis) - 39,000 koz Average basket price $3,804 Revenue from PGM Production for the quarter - $148.35 mil Chrome Production - 379.7 kT Average Chrome price $160/T Revenue from Chrome production for the quarter - $60.75 mil Total Revenue for the quarter - $209 mil EBITDA for Tharisa is not exactly easy to calculate as this is not published by the company however from memory and my previous calculation the 'All in Cost' for PGM is c$1380/oz and Chrome around $105/t. Assuming a 10% increase in these costs to counter for any adjustments thus using PGM cost of c$1520/oz and cost of producing Chrome concentrate of c$116/T, I get the following EBITDA figures, EBITDA for PGM - $89 mil EBITDA for Chrome - $16.7 mil Total EBITDA for the quarter - $105.7 mil Therefore to compare the headline figures for SLP and THS, Total quarterly revenue of $48.7 mil for SLP vs $209 mil for THS, whilst the EBITDA for the quarter for SLP was $28.7 mil, the expected EBITDA for the same period for THS is c105.7 mil. The market cap for SLP is £316m vs THS of £318mil. From what I gather THS is producing a lot more PGM ounces (more than double after factoring the 4E to 6E reporting consistencies), have a huge Chrome production line (whilst SLP has none) and THS also has a significantly higher life of mine of 54 years (including 14 years of open pit). Make no mistake SLP is NOT overvalued, in fact it is under valued given their performance, margins and balance sheet. However my point is that if SLP is value at the same marketcap with those operational metrics and asset mine life, then THS deserves to be a whole lot, well substantially higher!! Summary: Just goes to show the sheer value to be had here in THS. If the opportunity arises I will add more this week as it is clear which PGM miner has more value and disconnect from the market cap. As I've said previously, whilst THS has had their best quarter and half year results to date over the last few weeks/months, the drop from the 160p to 110p was not a reflection of the company but wider market concerns. On the contrary the company has gone from strength to strength and now presents simply the best value mining share on LSE - simple as that.''

[sailing john] 26/7/2021 15:48

Chrome price ticking up. Now at 165.8 as posted by Tharisa on their Twitter feed today.

[coco2020] 26/7/2021 15:27

I'm not invested in SLP, and I'm purely invested based on THS's fundamentals and forward earning capacity and ambitions. Broker price targets of 190 and 250p to me are far too conservative and do not appreciate the growth forecasts and projects in the pipeline. Even if those were conservative currently the returns on those targets are amazing for a company that is generating the kind of cash that it is. My targets personally are a lot higher.. phenomenal opportunity here especially given the seller has apparently stopped or cleared and the book looks a lot free to move onwards and upwards!

[martinfrench] 26/7/2021 10:17

i generally work on the basis of ths being 20p above slp, which obviously is a bit silly but for short term until projects come on stream it kind of works well so expecting a good 132-135 for next move, hopefully soonish but think 128-130 more realistic, that would form nice inverse head and shoulders, and was start of our recent decline

[coco2020] 26/7/2021 09:49

Well done Martin! 120p is also the 200DMA so once that clears and holds today, we should hopefully a much higher rise this week/next as that then acts as strong support!

[martinfrench] 26/7/2021 09:43

finally got an extra 5000 at 120

[martinfrench] 26/7/2021 09:34

well i cant buy, its mkt best at 119 which i hate

[coco2020] 26/7/2021 08:49

And a few more now. I think the breakout is well and truly on.. Let's clear past the 120s and over the 200DMA, then a whole host of investors who probably sold on the way down or looking to enter waiting on the sidelines will probably re-enter. The drop from 15-160p on what was already large disconnect from fair value was overdone, so hoping we move swiftly back to the 150's first then move higher to more sensible valuations such as those broker notes.

[coco2020] 26/7/2021 08:35

I significantly added to my position last week averaging up!! :)

[martinfrench] 26/7/2021 08:33

right, lets buy some more then :-)

[coco2020] 26/7/2021 08:27

And just as I say that, someone just bought 80k via 8*10k trades in a minute this morning. He/she knows!

[coco2020] 26/7/2021 08:26

Martin, whilst I understand the frustration I disagree with your views. Make no mistake I'm here to make money too but there needs to be a sensible use of internal cash generated, not to just appease short term share holders. Tharisa are paying a good dividend and I certainly expect them to increase the payout as NPAT increases however they have some stellar projects including Salene Chrome, Karo Platinum etc. which can go to significantly add value to the company. A stock as undervalued as this cannot remain under the radar too long, eventually the patient will be rewarded. The time will come when this would gloriously re-rate and whether that is just a normal market correction, buying frenzy from institutions and retail following alike or simply through Tharisa's own share buybacks. Eventually it will happen but for now its hard to lay blame on THS for the drop in price and lack of visibility. The drop from 150-160p a couple of months ago to the current levels was not a reflection of the company as they've just posted their strongest financial/operational quarter and half year results to date in their history! Whilst the market knocked off c45% of its value, internally they've made more money than they ever have in the comparative period. Besides Phoevos has been doing several interviews and investor events to keep the PR going. His family owns over 42% of the company so they are fully vested too! I have no doubts whatsoever that value will prevail. I've been invested long enough to know that some stocks is worth buyin/adding and holding for the eventually rerate to fair value.

[martinfrench] 21/7/2021 14:59

and if so many great projects come fully on stream in a year or so could also do a share buy back at these levels

[martinfrench] 21/7/2021 14:07

tbtt, doesnt matter how great a comapny is if no one is interested or is unknown UNLESS they start chucking out divs which will change this dramtically, show us the money and people will be interested so when they have finished paying for vulcan they need to up the divs slp get picked up by our fan club when they get trashed, ths doesnt seem to something has to change here

[tigerbythetail] 21/7/2021 12:55

I think "do not think" is right on the money. SLP is a well-known and heavily-traded stock. THS seems to be obscure. Just look at the difference in volumes. I still make THS the better long term play - no disrespect to SLP, which is still a great company.

[basem1] 21/7/2021 12:13

A definite disconnect here between what people think about SLP and what they do not think about THS

[basem1] 20/7/2021 08:56

There is support at this current level on the 3 year chart UKG

[sotolo] 19/7/2021 21:06

Tiger I think there are two real worries, first rhodium barely perked up on the recent trouble and is on the way back down along with other PGM’s, which could speed if more worries about economic growth; and with chrome although transport may be the immediate worry, and like rhodium worry about world economy seeping in, increased chrome tax may be becoming more likely with the political situation. Shares look forward and the question we have been asking from rhodium at 30,000 is ever more pertinent, it will soon have halved as many expected; it would appear that many investors appear it to halve again, and probably again

[tigerbythetail] 19/7/2021 18:37

Well, that was a bad day. A guess a combination of last week's South Africa troubles (though they have died down now) and a wider market sell-off. But Tharisa is still the same very appealing investment case it was a few days ago - it's just available at a cheaper price. And price is what you pay and value is what you get. I added a few today, but I'm going slowly. Not sure this is the bottom yet. It should be, by all rights, but markets are crazy...

[nimrod22] 19/7/2021 13:31

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/46823-in-africa-it-takes-more-than-a-weeklong-quasi-coup-to-knock-mining-off-its-stride/

[ukgeorge] 19/7/2021 08:48

Sadly looks like 120p support hasn't held, purely looking at the chart looks like £1, is the next target. Very annoying given how profitable the company has been. Hopefully the ports are up and running quickly and the freight costs start to come down soon.

[tigerbythetail] 16/7/2021 21:35

Hi Sotolo! The signs are there today that the unrest is beginning to calm down in SA. It was always limited to two provinces, and it seems that the government has Gauteng (i.e. Johannesburg) back under control. KwaZuluNatal (Zuma's home province, since he's a Zulu) is still restless. You can actually see the palladium market and rhodium market relaxing slightly over the last day or so as it becomes evident this is is not an Armageddon event for South Africa. Oddly, this is one case where falling PGM prices is actually good news for Tharisa! The unrest never came close to Tharisa mine, so I assume it should be working normally. However, there may be effects on the ports in Durban and Richards Bay, so bulk chrome exports to China could be delayed. Who knows, there could be effects on electricity generation and supply of diesel and chemicals to the mine as well. It's hard to judge. I take the point about the basket price dropping slightly, so the share price should drop to match it. But that DOES assume that Tharisa was fairly priced at 150p. And I don't think it was. It's still a ridiculously cheap stock given its earnings and long life of mine. I'm quite happy to hold here, and maybe add on weakness. I think the rhodium shortage will begin to bite again later in the year as the chip shortage which is so severely limiting car production starts to fall away. The one piece of news I'd be happy to get, is that the institutional seller has finally finished.

[sotolo] 16/7/2021 16:19

Well Tiger far from going to £2 THS is back under 120, I suppose that is fair, or even less than one might expect, with a 25% fall in the PGM basket, remembering a share is worth less for a given basket on the way down, as it is the expectation that matters. Another explanation is that the unrest in SA, while not necessarily threatening our mine, is partly due to intense inequality and poverty, so tax rises could be on the cards including the long threatened higher chrome tax, which could more than obviate Vulcan benefits

[brucie5] 16/7/2021 13:31

Great article, and let's hope a correct analysis. Doesn't however, appear to be doing my the share price of THS...

[redtrend] 16/7/2021 13:20

2nd that, thanks for sharing Catsick