Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[sotolo] 07/6/2022 11:24

Tiger well you are sadly right so far, PGM basket down to near $2500 halving PGM profit) and chrome down a bit, share price holding up surprisingly well so far in the face of this

[plat hunter] 30/5/2022 06:26

You bought at 140, good skills and a nice 12 months wasted Tiger, you keep showing us how it's done lol

[sotolo] 26/5/2022 12:04

Tiger it has risen from 130 in 10 trading days, and shot up to over 150 on the early results rns due As I posted, and think, to a misunderstanding of the earnings per share thinking they had risen because of exceptional rather than fallen because of the lower PGM and higher costs you point out, as the tumbled heps showed. Going forward as you also point out vehicle demand will fall with the recession. However it should more than bounce back as so many cars haven’t been replaced with the shortages, imho, metals sold are rising and this is a great management that knows how to reinvest, so I am happy I haven’t sold, at what price did you do so? I also continue to hold SLP which has also held up to my purchase price which you can’t say of many shares this year! Are you still heavy in fertiliser and palm oil, I couldn’t bring myself to buy them particularly the latter. And what of Poly etc now?

[tigerbythetail] 26/5/2022 08:55

Hi Sotolo and all! These are decent results from a very well-run company. Obviously the PGM basket price is down, so that and increased costs account for the drop in profits and (subsequently) interim dividend. I think today's drop is down to the general (black) mood in the market. IMO, the market believes the world is headed towards a stagflationary recession, and (if that assumption's right) car production, catalytic converter production, and PGM prices will all fall. Buying a car is a large ticket discretionary purchase, and thus heavily dependent on the general economic outlook. I sold out here a while back, and I've heavily reduced my SLP shareholding as well. This has nothing to do with the management or performance of either company, and everything to do with my belief that we live in uncertain and dangerous times, and that there are very few shares that won't be cheaper to buy in a few months' time than they are today.

[indalo] 26/5/2022 08:02

Can anybody explain the difference between HEPS and the other (higher) earnings measure?

[sotolo] 26/5/2022 06:49

Interim Dividend down 25% on last year which is as expected given we were told Headline earnings per share, that counts, down 29% a few days ago and we always get around 17% of that. I couldn’t understand why the market marked the shares up, other than the market misunderstood the two earnings per share figures and went for the rise that isn’t comparable, let’s hope the market remains as pleased today, but given lower PGM prices and higher costs (both quite substantial) even with a Peru solid PGM ounce rise ebitda is down around 20%. Harbinger for other miners. As all these comparisons are before 10% inflation which makes them worse

[lennonsalive] 24/5/2022 13:18

Nice move up

[sotolo] 23/5/2022 21:30

Now that tiger by the tail seems to have abandoned this board it seems to have gone extremely quiet. This is an interesting article from mining.com today “ Russia’s Nornickel on Monday cut its estimate for the global palladium market deficit in 2022 to 100,000 troy ounces due to lower demand from the car industry amid the Ukraine crisis and a slow recovery of the chip market from shortage. Western sanctions imposed on Moscow after it sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 have not so far targeted Nornickel, the world’s largest producer of palladium and high-grade nickel….. The palladium market would remain in balance in 2023 as the recovery in the auto demand would be mostly offset by rising supply, the miner added. In February, the miner forecast a global palladium market deficit of 300,000 ounces and the global nickel market surplus of 42,000 tonnes in 2022

[catsick] 23/5/2022 08:32

Chrome now up to 294 in the latest ths tweet, timing of vulcan ramp up has been perfect

[catsick] 20/5/2022 14:02

If you follow ths on Twitter the post the prices each week, otherwise pay through the nose for access to pricing

[nakedmolerat] 20/5/2022 13:36

just excellent, happy to hold for a move up to 160p

[martinfrench] 20/5/2022 13:04

anyone got a reliable finished chrome price, the price tharisa actually sell it for (future or spot price is fine) with symbol ?

[sotolo] 20/5/2022 11:38

Interesting that the price is up when headline eps, which excludes exceptional things, is down between a quarter and a third.not complaining! Viz chrome even with it up and rh down I reckon rh is still contributing more profit , and PGM’s are certainly contributing near double with my sums. Again not complaining about getting the extra for chrome but not enough to outweigh the PGM basket tumble from reduced auto production yet again

[catsick] 20/5/2022 11:14

Also those results are pre the chrome price explosion, chrome is going to be by far the biggest revenue line now, taking the heavy lifting over from Rhodium, I wonder when it will be the turn of Iridium to shine ....

[cookie dough] 20/5/2022 11:11

Nice! USD26million results in increased earnings of 50%. Looks like a great deal to me.

[tonytyke2] 20/5/2022 10:52

Cracking, indicating a significant earnings upgrade! Metals in general have come off more recently, but chrome still doing well.

[catsick] 20/5/2022 10:49

This rns is a bit confusing, the impact of the business combination impacts one eps but not the other, one is a better result and one is worse, how about giving some more colour, neither numbers are bad really but there is no point putting something out to clarify an earnings change without explaining it properly, unless the blm deal was so good it's best not discussed

[ntv] 20/5/2022 10:29

Sailing John Apologies as typo error on my part I should have put $288 as I had looked at their twitter feed

[sailing john] 18/5/2022 16:07

NTV that isn't correct - probably weeks out of date For info SA Cr2 O3 conc 40-42% was priced at $288.2/t on the 13th May. It's been rising steadily for the past 2 months and was last at $230 on 1st April and has been rising steadily ever since. Fast markets yesterday suggested prices stabilised this week so likely to be around $285

[ntv] 18/5/2022 15:16

Chrome was $228/t on Monday

[mfhmfh] 18/5/2022 10:23

looking forward to the interims on 26th May.

[redtrend] 13/5/2022 14:56

Deadly is correct with respect to Chrome which is at $277/tn, a huge increase. Based on the recent Tamesis site visit report: "The current product price is c.$280/t and it costs c.$100/t to get the chrome to China i.e. by the end of the quarter operational cashflow will be in the order of $70m pre tax etc". So $280m pre tax before pushing Vulcan to full capacity and achieving 2Mtpa, which would yield $360m. hxxps://www.tamesispartners.com/research-portal#/portal/tamesis-partners/research/37_2022051111514849834 I think most PIs don't quite understand the numbers and only focus on PGMs (which are still at hugely profitable prices). The Annual Report always provides breakdowns of revenues by PGM and Chrome stream, so for those inclined, you can do quite an easy rough back of the packet breakdown, including AISCs for PGM and Chrome respectively. I tend to be more conservative and think costs of Chrome will be higher than $100/tn when accounting for inflation, but hopefully this will be offset when Vulcan ramps up and economies of scale push prices down per tonne. The market is still not factoring in the major change in THS structure with the BEE % now a THS shareholder nor Karo Resources. I'm slightly concerned by the slower than expected cash build in the last Q results, so I'm hoping in the Interims this is formally clarified and shows up in the Trade Receivables and is merely a delay in hitting the books.