Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[thirty fifty twenty] 01/12/2021 15:00:30

thanks UK George.

i was encouraged by the remarks from CMCL recently whch said that it saw very keen interest in its new canadian listing for its development in Zim. Obvs that is a different company and commodity! but i did see it as an expression of investor interest in the long term development of Zim.

secondly the THS mgt team have a lot of skin in the game and hae a good long term delivery record. i think they must have a view on adding capacity to the market and how that effects their overall profitability. There are a lot of moving parts i PGM market but as a lower cost producer i dont think THS wil come out worst from some extra capacity that they have a share in - it worked for TSCO lol!

anyway - the proof will be in the share price in 12 mths time,
and fingers crossed a pick up tomorrow.
pleased to see that THS keeping up their investor profile with a presentation tomorrow

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
THS is in my top5 hldgs

[ukgeorge] 01/12/2021 10:36:48

More detail on how the Karo project can move forward and importantly how much THS would be putting in is key.

[ukgeorge] 01/12/2021 10:34:44

www.theindependent.co.zw/2021/11/12/karo-govt-review-us4bn-deal-as-zim-seeks-fair-share-after-very-encouraging-results/

The problem with Karo, is it's size. In that the capex is likely going to be a lot (although it will be mined by open pit to start) The process plant will likely be in the hundreds of millions. That article suggest potential to produce 1.4Moz per year, the platinum and palladium mkts are about 20 Moz a year. So 1.4Moz is material, the platinum mkt is in balance so the extra production will cause a surplus and palladium prices are on the way down from the elevated level. Long term electric vehicles are also going to eat away at demand. So is it wise to be investing heavily in a big project albeit low cost and large reserves.

THS has 26.8% of the project, but is likely the only major shareholder with any cash. So the worry is that they end up being the main shareholder taking a risk.

[tigerbythetail] 01/12/2021 08:32:42

Results tomorrow.
I wonder if we also get news on the Karo mega project in Zimbabwe. The DFS should be complete by now.
(The results will be good, of course. How the market reacts to any Karo news I don't know, but surely it can only add value to the company? Not a penny of the possible value of Karo is currently in Tharisa's share price.)
Meanwhile, rhodium price holding up (even increasing slightly) at $13,900/oz (JMAT). Palladium and platinum, though, are both struggling.

[loglorry1] 27/11/2021 07:48:56

The fall is justified due to the emergence of a new variant and the resulting decline in PGM. We will have to wait and see how thatt pans out but markets will and should price in the extra risk.

[moneyman50] 26/11/2021 21:17:48

Very frustrating -share price always tracks PGM prices downwards but never upwards in the same manner.

[tigerbythetail] 26/11/2021 15:29:29

Palladium now below $1,700. Like with oil this morning, IMO this isn't about fundamentals. It's about futures traders getting smoked and being forced to close leveraged positions at any price.
I think it's too early to look for a bounce, but it's something to think about on Monday.

[ukgeorge] 26/11/2021 10:44:53

I had a little top up 3,470 @ 115.4p

[ukgeorge] 26/11/2021 09:54:46

Yes agree, and a big sell off is overdue.

[tigerbythetail] 26/11/2021 09:36:17

A little bird tells me to hang on a bit before buying ANY stocks - at least until Monday, maybe Tuesday.
How much forced liquidation is there going to be? Will there be a cascade effect? You can already see that traders are getting smoked and margin called in the oil market.
(This post isn't about Tharisa, which is a great company, but the wider markets!)

[ukgeorge] 26/11/2021 09:19:17

Looks like a good opportunity to top up

[ukgeorge] 25/11/2021 16:22:43

Yes a special dividend would certainly be nice.

I think the market is to a certain degree waiting to see the cash pile start to build seeing as capex spending should now be dropping this should start to flow through.

In the above presentation he also talked about the new Salene chrome mine coming online in Q4 2021 so basically now. Open pit mine premium product.

[moneyman50] 25/11/2021 15:37:05

Pouroulis has previously hinted that some sort of special dividend may be under consideration due to the extra profits generated by the company due to higher PGM prices .Paying a special dividend of between 3 and 5 cents would do the company no harm especially as the Vulcan project is virtually complete.
It would also recognize the shareholders who stuck with the company during difficult times and at least give the shareholders of the extra profits earns due to high PGM prices

[ukgeorge] 25/11/2021 14:38:26

Presentation from the 20th October

[redtrend] 25/11/2021 13:54:04

"However investors are never sure if this will come off"... Errr they just delivered Vulcan on time and on budget which will significantly increase chrome over next couple years from 1.5MT to 2MT.

Investors already know THS appear to deliver on their growth opportunities

[tigerbythetail] 25/11/2021 13:30:27

Hi Sotolo!
Dividend policy is "no less than 15% of PBAT". It's usually been a few percentage points higher than that.
PBAT (I believe) should actually be more than simple EPS (due to the BEE partner). So the yield should be a bit higher than you are calculating.
But, overall, point taken. Tharisa is really a "growth" company which incidentally pays a reasonable dividend.
I think, minus Karo, this should trade higher than currently. It's net debt free, profitable, fast-growing (guidance increasing, chrome costs decreasing), LOM no problem, and well-managed. Just look at the long term graph - it has traded higher than today when the overall business position was far worse.
Karo is (for me) a wild card. I've no idea what an imminent DFS on what seems to be a huge amount of low cost open pittable PGMs adds (or does not add) to the share price. How does the market value that?
Anyway, let's see how the market reacts to the official audited results. As for today, volume has been relatively low - for some reason these JSE-mandated "warning" RNSs just get mostly ignored by the market.

[sotolo] 25/11/2021 12:45:05

Tiger, if the divi is as usual around 17% of eps (without a special that we hope for) it will yield under 4% at current share price, and that is with elevated profit this year with fab rhodium, so market probably expects the yield to fall back in future so maybe the share price is not so odd. The bad thing about THS is it only pays out 17% or so of profit in divi, the good thing is it uses the other 83% mostly investing for future profit. However investors are never sure if this will come off, is THS really a growth company, we think so but it has such a very lowly PE, maybe around 4, as the market thinks too many dangers, PGM price, politics Aim, chrome etc imho

[sotolo] 25/11/2021 12:45:04

Tiger, if the divi is as usual around 17% of eps (without a special that we hope for) it will yield under 4% at current share price, and that is with elevated profit this year with fab rhodium, so market probably expects the yield to fall back in future so maybe the share price is not so odd. The bad thing about THS is it only pays out 17% or so of profit in divi, the good thing is it uses the other 83% mostly investing for future profit. However investors are never sure if this will come off, is THS really a growth company, we think so but it has such a very lowly PE, maybe around 4, as the market thinks too many dangers, PGM price, politics Aim, chrome etc imho

[tonytyke2] 25/11/2021 10:06:57

Fully agree TBTT, and not forgetting this RNS has been released today because results are going to exceed guidance by 20% or more.I have added again today.

[ukgeorge] 25/11/2021 10:03:35

Another bit of wind in THS sails is the depreciating rand currently 21 to the pound. Near 16 to the dollar the lowest since November 2020

[tigerbythetail] 25/11/2021 09:59:20

Hi Moneyman!
My EPS estimate was a few cents higher as well.
But there is a danger here that we are not seeing the wood for the trees. We are looking at THS closely, most people in the market are looking at it from a distance. We are seeing an EPS a little lower than we hoped. When the results come out and they finally pay attention, the majority of the market will be seeing a company which has more than doubled its profits over the last year, built a new low-cost chrome processing facility (Vulcan), and increased mine life and guidance (without even mentioning Karo).
So I'm expecting a nice rise in the share price into the end of the year.

[moneyman50] 25/11/2021 08:25:21

TigerByTheTail-Despite higher PGM and chrome prices it appears Tharisa’s performance in the second half of the year was worse than the first.EPS for the whole year circa 38 cents per share and for the first half of the year 22 cents per share making 16 cents per share for the second half-hence no uplift in share price.
Until the accounts are produced we don’t know what additional write offs have been made and non capitalized costs in relation to the Zimbabwe project,
Based on the first half and average PGM prices for the second half I was anticipating an EPS figure in the mid to high 40 cents

[basem1] 25/11/2021 08:09:55

Load up whilst you can at these levelsThere should be a decent dividend increase too

[tigerbythetail] 25/11/2021 08:08:44

It's odd, but these JSE "warning" RNSs are almost always ignored by the market (this is based on a fair amount of experience, not only with THS). The reaction will come after the full results - possibly a few days afterwards.
Why? I don't know. But that seems to be how it is!