Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Soco International LSE:SIA London Ordinary Share GB00B572ZV91 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -4.60p -4.11% 107.40p 107.00p 107.40p 113.00p 106.00p 113.00p 297,089 16:29:41
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 115.6 -96.0 -35.3 - 356.52

Soco Share Discussion Threads

Showing 25801 to 25824 of 25825 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
25/5/2018
12:22
robowen, Chartwise, you buy the retraces within a recovery pattern. So if you believe this is the recovery, this is could be a very good day to buy SIA. NAI.
brucie5
25/5/2018
11:58
Just joined this board as interested in SIA. Love this nigelpm guy who said the 30% increase in the share price was so obvious yet then does this! This ain't mumsnet mate. Go and troll somewhere else for your kicks.
nigelpm
25/5/2018
11:52
Just joined this board as interested in SIA. Love this nigelpm guy who said the 30% increase in the share price was so obvious yet then does this! Decided I couldn't resist 118.6p with the 5.25p dividend entitlement coming tomorrow.
robowen65
24/5/2018
20:05
I bought some shares today just in case!Anyway fellow investors have a look at AEG I personally think that it will multibag.Good luck here!
costax1654x
24/5/2018
19:43
Kenobi, I agree with you there is uncertainty. Mainly within the industry assessing the risks posed by alternatives. This is partially due to the hype created around alternative energies. The jury is still out. However, oil demand forecasts are being increased for many decades to come. Add depletion rates to the equation and things start looking favourable. The Saudis are expecting an oil crunch in 2020 and are starting to invest in capacity. The shale boom in Texas has only been economical so far due to the existing infrastructure which is now reaching full capacity and further increase in production will require new processing, storage and distribution facilities which take time to build. Lastly, OPEC will act to look after its self interest. I suspect WTI around $80 would be desirable providing it doesn’t impact demand. However, the spare capacity within OPEC is of low grade, heavy and sour crude which many refineries cannot process. Hence, oil price is likely to surprise on the side. The uncertainties amongst investors will remain resulting in greater volatility but with increasingly clear uptrend. Great time to accumulate on the dips.
tyler19
24/5/2018
19:01
Tournesol, historically oil companies have invested heavily when the oil price has risen and have often over invested creating excess capacity and vice versa, hence a good indicator of oil price. I appreciate that you disagree, this is what makes a market. As for alternative energies, these will grow and take a greater share of the energy market in the years to come. For me it’s the timescale over which the switch over occurs. I don’t see this happening in the next business cycle. Urbanisation is continuing at a rapid pace in most of the developing world including China and india and not to mention other high population countries in a similar position. Adoption of alternative energy still faces many technical hurdles. I’m bullish on oil and oil companies, barring a major recession. In addition countries like using multiple energy sources for strategic reasons as well technical. Oil may still remain the main source of energy even with adoption of electric cars with technologies such as carbon capture at power generation point. Why build lots of new facilities when existing facilities can be modified economically.
tyler19
24/5/2018
16:24
If production increases and/or a license extension is agreed, the price will react without waiting for a new audit. (hopefully!)
stepone68
24/5/2018
15:39
YASRUB, re the licence length you may have put your finger on why they haven't yet "pushed it" - I've thought for the last 18 months that a licence extension will be applied for at some point, with the only doubt whether the extension is contractual (under the JOC's licence terms) or negotiated (for which there is precedent in VN).But there may be a simpler explanation, which is that Senergy are new to the field and they may want to see the impact of the 2018 work programme first? Slightly odd, I think, to have picked the effective date for the reserves assessment as 1st September, but it may very well be the case that the timing (and perhaps choice of auditor) was driven by some possible deal timing expected?So it is therefore difficult to pin down the timing in relation to HA's question......but the short answer is that the reserves would have to be reaudited. I suspect, though, that a licence extension may happen first.
emptyend
24/5/2018
13:29
I raised the reclassification possibility a couple of days ago - I am assuming it is now more to do with the partners alignment to the work programme - my uncertainty was over what would be the constant production volume required over the life of the licence left ?
yasrub
24/5/2018
13:12
Must say that item 1 in that list looks pretty compelling. What would be the steps needed now to get the reclassification formalised?
haideralifool
24/5/2018
11:46
Just looking at "cashflow from operations" as a metric and using 2017 as a base for forecasting 2018 (based on prices staying flat from here but with production at 9,300 bbls, assuming modest success from the compressor work and drilling) I'd see cash from operations getting close to $150mn for 2018 (mostly in H2, so I think the results at the interims stage should be quite bullish in the outlook, both for cashflow and reserves - assuming reasonable success with the 2018 work in H1). This compares with: 2013: $314.2mn 2014: $251.2mn 2015: $ 80.3mn 2016: $ 46.0mn 2017: $ 45.0mn 2018: $150.0mn? ....and that is before any "windfalls" from deals, asset sales etc. And who knows what 2019 would hold?
emptyend
24/5/2018
11:09
SteMiS, To repeat previous comments: 1) There is an embedded reserves reclassification pending, as flagged on p22 of the AR. No value is given for this but, when the reserves were reclassified downwards in 2015 the circumstances at that time were that no work programme had been agreed and the oil price had fallen. Now there has been a significant recovery in the oil price and we have a fully-agreed FFDP and work programme, so the 2015 circumstances have largely been reversed. 2) $220mn of African assets have been removed from the balance sheet via a combination of restatements, accounting policy changes and the technical impairment resulting from the fact that SOCO have no plans for further investment in those assets during 2018 but they have yet to agree a deal to sell them or to otherwise bring them into production - so they cannot report those assets as either held for sale or as producing assets (even though they acquired a full suite of production licences in 2017. 3) Compressor repairs and 2018 drilling can be expected to add to production. How much? Perhaps 10-15% is a fair guess (as again flagged in the commentary) Difficult to say how much all these things are worth but they are certainly material. Also material is the oil price rise, 50% of which drops right through post-tax. Prior to the reclassification shock in March 2015 the shares were trading in the 250-300p range during the first two months of 2015 with Brent at about $60 (having recently plummeted from $110 to under $50 in the last few months of 2014) ....and then there are the blue sky unknowns of deals and the upside potential of 125/6 There has certainly been a loss of some time value over the two-year haitus but,on the other hand, the uncertainty over the receipt of the c.$50mn Mongolia payment was favourably resolved. I would argue that, in the round, there is now an extremely clear and substantial undervaluation, even before taking account of the "blue sky" points.... ....how much of that is common across the sector is difficult to gauge though but, for comparison, Tullow was trading in early 2015 in a 280-400p range (280p when SOCO was 250p immediately before the reclassification prelims announcement in March 2015) and Premier was trading in a range of 120-180p in early 2015 and at around 130p when SOCO was 250p. Both Premier and Tullow have, in recent days, been back at the 130p/280p where they were in March 2015. SOCO, however, has not recovered to even half its March 2015 value. I would hesitate to argue that it should be worth the 250p per share it was in 2015, even when we get to see what the three points above are really worth - but I am pretty clear that, when those values can be proven, the shares should be 200p+ ceteris paribus. Of course, sentiment for SOCO remains on the floor at present - but I don't think the company could have been any clearer about what their expectations re reserves write-backs and the production outlook. And the perennial question of what the African assets are worth won't be resolved anytime soon (but remember that they were largely ignored by the market back in 2015 anyway). You are perfectly entitled to say "meh....come back when these points have been proven" - but IMO the price will be at least 50% higher by that time (relative to other E&Ps).
emptyend
24/5/2018
10:31
...The best way to predict the direction of oil price is to look at how long it’s been since any meaningful investment has taken place compared to historic norms…. Good luck with that. Can't quite see how that would have helped with any of the oil price collapses experienced in the past 20 years. They were all preceded by intensive investment. >> Isn't that the point ? that if the oil supply/demand gets out of balance then it takes time to correct, either by falling demand via a recession or rising production via large investment. There's a lot of uncertainty at the mo, the excess supply has been wiped out by production cuts but tight oil is increasing in the US, what level can this be increased to ? currently exports are limited due to lack of facilities, suppressing the wti price. As these are expanded you might expect the gap between brent and wti to narrow. It wasn't so long ago that wti was always at a premium to brent. Once the Saudi's have their ipo out of the way, will they still be happy with their cuts ? It's one thing for the US to become energy independent using shale etc, quiet another thing to keep increasing exports and eating opecs lunch. why should the saudi's cut production while at the same time the US goes all out to increase it's production ? Surely it makes more sense environmentally to extract the easier to extract oil in saudi and venezuela ahead of the shale or tar sands ? And then there's the political aspects, if there were regime change in Venezuela to a friendly regime to the US wouldn't the multi nationals flock there and oil production boom ? If they don't will it continue to collapse ? not to mention uncertainty in the middle east. What I'm saying is while it looks bullish now, the oil price isn't a one way bet in my view. My worries re soco are the ever shortening of the licences, lack of ability to monetise any of the african assets, and length of time to get 125/126 explored, which of course may come to nothing too.
kenobi
24/5/2018
09:34
What Nigel said. (There's a first time for everything - even for N & me to be in perfect harmony)
tournesol
24/5/2018
09:01
Fair enough. Let's compare notes in a year from now. I'd be amazed if soco doesn't go on to hugely outperform oil from here. I wouldn't be surprised to see oil at 60 bucks and soco at 1.50.
nigelpm
24/5/2018
08:41
That's generally my thinking as well. 94p was insane as I said at the time (but plenty of bears popped up to tell me I was wrong), 118p is just very good value. SIA has solely benefited from the rise in the oil price. If you map the share price over the last 3 months against that of BP, for example, the rises are pretty much the same. We've discussed the numbers on here a few times and the bulls haven't been able to quantify how SIA is significantly undervalued (other than vague comments about 'deals' and paying a dividend).
stemis
24/5/2018
08:22
Tyler ...The best way to predict the direction of oil price is to look at how long it’s been since any meaningful investment has taken place compared to historic norms…. Good luck with that. Can't quite see how that would have helped with any of the oil price collapses experienced in the past 20 years. They were all preceded by intensive investment. ...alternative energies are nothing new, they’ve been around meaningfully at least since the 70s… No. There really was very little focus on alternatives back then. The motivation to reduce carbon emissions is relatively new. In the 70's global warming had not been identified as a problem. Apart from GW the motivation/need to cut air pollution is much higher now, China was not worried about industrial/vehicle generated smog back in the 70's. In the early 80's I worked for a major integrated oil co and spent some time in their Hong Kong office. I remember making a day trip to Shenzen across the border. It was a small town with people driving pigs on the rail tracks. We were told it was to be a new industrial hub. The last thing anyone was worried about was cutting oil consumption or switching to alternatives. All different now. Then I saw oil price strength as inevitable driven by population growth and progressive industrialisation "middle-classification". Now I see oil as an outmoded technology which we all want/need to reduce/abandon as soon as we can. Periods of price strength seem more like the convulsions of a dying behemoth rather than evidence of recovery. But like I said earlier I'm not looking for multi-decades long (which is what I mean by long term) investment returns. I'm inured to having to duck and dive as ripples pass through. This looks like a ripple moment, or at least a ripplette. So let's enjoy it while it lasts. Just don't relax into it and most of all don't expect a bell to ring when it reaches an inflexion point before going into reverse. I've come to believe that one of the critical skills we need as investors is to identify when we need to leave the party and to quit early. These days I don't let myself get too comfortable/relaxed. I am always looking for reasons to call it quits.
tournesol
23/5/2018
22:21
Also, alternative energies are nothing new, they’ve been around meaningfully at least since the 70s. Oil is still the most versatile fuel with a high level of availability. Solar and wind are subject to weather conditions and require storage of electricity which is easier said than done on a large scale. As for shale, it is not a new technology, it’s been around for many decades! Shale is cost effective in very few regions and cannot meet the increase in global oil demand.
tyler19
23/5/2018
22:12
The link. hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Traders-See-Higher-Oil-Prices-In-The-Long-Term.html
tyler19
23/5/2018
22:11
Tournesol, you can simply google oil futures. These are reported on numerous free websites. By long term I mean 2 to 5 years. Below is a link to a news article a couple of days back stating the same thing. The best way to predict the direction of oil price is to look at how long it’s been since any meaningful investment has taken place compared to historic norms. We are just coming out of the longest downturn in investment in the history of the oil industry. Oil supplies naturally deplete approx 6% a year. It normally takes a year to 18 of reduced investment to bring the market into balance, we’ve had 4 years. The futures markets are starting to reflect the dynamic. I hold shares in soco on a 2 year time horizon and am optimistic. However, in e&p you can never completely eliminate risk and market is often volatile reacting to gdp data and oil inventories, which can be difficult to understand as the latter is subject to trades, hedges etc.. I would suggest holding a basket of 5 to 10 oil stocks to mitigate your risk
tyler19
23/5/2018
21:40
Hi Tyler you said ..I’m also seeing the long term oil prices moving upwards, which is used to value oil companies… Could you say a bit more about that please? eg What do you mean by long term? What is your source for long term price forecasts? What do those sources actually say? Personally I've given up on oil price forecasting and likewise on demand/supply forecasting. Feels like it used to be reasonable to model supply/demand/price as if it were a closed system with interdependent variables. But doesn't feel like that to me any more. Alternative energy sources, unconventional hydrocarbons, shale, renewables, increased environmental pressures all look to me like spanners in the works of any closed system. Political instability and irrationality provide the nails in the coffin. In the old days of Peak Oil and Desert Twilight I had a confident vision of a long term uptrend in price allowing a relatively relaxed long term buy hold approach to undervalued E&P's. That's all long gone and these days I am less relaxed and more interested in taking an opportunistic shorter term approach which involves watching from sidelines for much of the time then surfing visible short-medium term trends. POO is clearly relatively strong on a short term view but I can't begin to feel confident about the medium-long term. So I'll be ready to bale out when momentum subsides.
tournesol
23/5/2018
20:39
Absolutely, the share price movements of oil companies remind me of 1999 when it was all doom and gloom on the outlook for oil. At the time the tech stocks were booming and overall market was heading into a bubble. Soco share price was volatile but as soon it was obvious that the oil market was tightening the share price took off on a very steep rise. If you were able to top up during the volatility you did extremely well. I see a similar repeat here, although not the same magnitude. as the company market cap is much larger now. Still a 10 fold increase is very plausible, as obsurd as it may sound at this moment in time. Good luck.
tyler19
23/5/2018
20:26
That's generally my thinking as well. 94p was insane as I said at the time (but plenty of bears popped up to tell me I was wrong), 118p is just very good value.
nigelpm
23/5/2018
19:51
Nigel, these risk off trades are brilliant buying opportunities. I now see a tightening oil market going forward. I find Soco shares attractive as they have significant cash in the bank, operational issues are being addressed, new wells being drilled, produces a premium product, large dividend and above all it’s really cheap. Not to mention looking for mergers/acquisitions. I’m also seeing the long term oil prices moving upwards, which is used to value oil companies.
tyler19
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