Soco Share Discussion Threads

[oilinvestoral] 09/8/2019 09:20

Typically around 1 month or slightly less ! We should also hear news next week regarding Israeli fields if Middle East media is to be believed

[emptyend] 09/8/2019 09:08

I wouldn't expect any individual wells in Egypt to be gamechangers - unless perhaps they drill explo wells in the north. But who knows?

[lauders] 09/8/2019 04:17

You are right I think Impvesta. Just highlighting the dates for anyone interested in looking again ;-)

From the 31st July update:

EGYPT

The acquisition of Merlon Petroleum El Fayum completed on 2 April 2019. A second rig was contracted after completion and arrived in June 2019. Drilling operations with the second rig have commenced and the first well was spudded on 16 July 2019.

Don't want to get too excited, dangerous with SIA, but perhaps we are going to get some news soon and the rise yesterday bodes well? Will be interesting to see how long the well takes to reach target depth and may help with future drilling timelines depending on the depths involved of course.

[impvesta] 08/8/2019 07:08

Both are old presentations I think Lauders, even though they now show as 6th August.

[lauders] 08/8/2019 05:17

Two presentations (the same one it seems) dated 6th August are on the company's website:

Some drilling news would be welcome around now.

[buywell2] 02/8/2019 12:41

Ha Ha

Is that Asagi the spear of the mighty Zulus

The sole holder upper of IGE collapsing now to 0.8p

Another buywell call that was correct by the way

You guys can rest easy cos soon buywell is leaving maybe to never return again

[russiaguru] 02/8/2019 12:36

Buywell3 please refrain from your postures.

You are a traitor and imposter and bear no reflection to the asute ancestory of the buywell name.

Please change your name to sellwell

[emptyend] 02/8/2019 11:04

And so he has been flushed out. And blocked. Again. And his chum.Pathetic. I'm not averse to negative views - just to repeated comments that lack any logical basis.Hence happy to say its a very good summary from Asagi and I agree with the great majority of it. Also good post from greyingsurfer. It should be remembered though that as recently as 2015 it was 250p+, before the reserves were downgraded after the oil price fall of 2014. Question is, (ignoring the dividends received over that period for a moment) is the subsequent fall from 150p in March 2015 completely justified or not. I think not. Some fall is (for reasons mentioned by Asagi) but - as with Brexit - we are now in a phase where delivery of plans is the be all and end all! Should be clearer by year end, I'd think....

[volsung] 02/8/2019 07:43

The curse of the Great Apes is upon this one

[russiaguru] 02/8/2019 07:27

Buywell you have stolen my 50p prediction.

Although I am also buywell, buywell3 stole my username

[buywell3] 02/8/2019 06:39

Sometimes it pays to listen to the negative or other counterpoint view

buywell has said for months now that OIL was and is heading lower based upon the chart and Global Slowdown V demand concerns

His call for some time is $45 for now

Which should now come quicker than many PI's and Institutions thought

Expected Surge in Oil Supply and Tariffs Add to Glut Concern



My call for SIA 50p thus remains ... for now

dyor

[oilinvestoral] 01/8/2019 14:37

Hi

Has anyone contacted the company? What’s is their response to the latest share price decline and lack of progress ... Did anyone here attend the AGM?

[stepone68] 01/8/2019 14:36

Thanks Peter - I agree there are opportunities. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[greyingsurfer] 01/8/2019 14:24

Asagi, as I understand it Merlon were not doing much production capex recently - so the fall over 2 years is no great surprise. Soco are now investing and running 2 rigs - so plenty of opportunity for getting those figures up again, before considering explo possiblities.

Stepone, the propsective production profiles are true. But it's not all down to Egypt. There are deeper possilities at TGT, and the new VN blocks - with any success they should be coming on line by 2029. And, yes, Egypt both building up current production and explo opportunities.

Of course the past few years have been a major disappointment. I did sell quite a few much nearer the top - a big mistake not selling all, but the position now is not as bleak as you suggest.

[buywell3] 01/8/2019 13:43

buywell now has a call on this at 50p

dyor




buywell3 - 20 Dec 2017 - 20:28:37 - 20244 of 22877 SOCO - The Endgame - SIA
Holders here better believe that OIL is going to hold over $60

That is in the face of USA fracking ... which should now get a Trump push in the new year

Plus a UK fracking push by the Government to make us Brexit OIL EU independent

Plus Electric car manufacturers falling over themselves to get their products to market as fast and as competitively priced as possible to win FIRST market share

99p by end of 2017 anyone ?

Happy xmas

[nigelpm] 01/8/2019 13:32

Hate to say it asagi but that's a pretty fair summary all told. Been downhill since 2013.

[stepone68] 01/8/2019 13:31

Slide 7 of the last presentation shows a production profile right out to 2029. Grand total of 30m barrels to be produced from Vietnam. Barely underpins the current market cap, so it's all down to Egypt....

[asagi] 01/8/2019 13:25

when was the last time that we had any good news from the company? I make it 2013, with the TGT-10X well.

Since then, sure, some stuff might count as good news but never enough to make anyone conclude that the company was 'going places'.

How 'unlucky' has SOCO been? Compressor/water separation issues reducing Vietnam production. The legendary failed well at TGD.

Marine XI - the 'dead cert' (my analysis of market expectations) wells that failed.
Mer Profunde Sud - failed
Cabinda - failed (and took ages to fail too)
Block V (Congo) - cost money, nothing achieved, substantial PR damage incurred

What benefit the sound balance sheet management through the years? Shareholders believed it was to take advantage of any industry weakness and buy cheap assets when others were too constrained to act. Except they missed the bottom of the cycle by two years and then bought assets that the market turned its thumb down at.

September 2018 acquisition of Merlon:
"Working interest daily production averaged approximately 7,859 bopd (net) in 2017"


31st July 2019 update:
"Production from the El Fayum concession averaged 5,262 barrels of oil per day (bopd) from 2 April to 30 June 2019"


that is a substantial decline in anyone's book. Ever likely people are beginning to think that the Egypt assets are a lemon.

Would the share price be any different today if, say, me and nigelpm were in charge?

This is a litany of failure that makes Vietnam look like a once-in-a-career fluke that any one of us could manage if backed with enough of other people's money.

This is a tough hold.

Asagi (long SIA)

[buywell3] 01/8/2019 12:59

Many on here slagged buywell bigtime when he suggested this could fall below a quid


buywell3 - 03 Aug 2018 - 14:17:10 - 21451 of 22871 SOCO - The Endgame - SIA
empty words

Sub a quid and dropping further chartwsise if OIL drops further

[nigelpm] 01/8/2019 12:57

I think the extension is likely (per discussions with management last year) and we'll see some production increases coming through. The market is valuing as if there won't be an extension and production continues to decline.

[stepone68] 01/8/2019 12:54

On the valuation point, Nigel, we have 4 years left on the TGT PSC and 5 on CNV. What's that worth at 6,500 bopd? Less than current market cap. 5 year extension isn't going to help much either based on production decline out to 2029.

[buywell3] 01/8/2019 12:34

This is now all about OIL price and Egypt

OIL IMO is heading lower

All Oilies will drop as they do in such a scenario

RISK is on V Global Slowdown

Mr Market knows this as he is a 1yr ahead looking entity