Soco Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 14/9/2019 22:26

Saudi expects production back within 48 hours - however it will refocus minds on the risk and sure to pop on the open. Perhaps 4/5 bucks?

[emptyend] 14/9/2019 20:49

Might get interesting on Monday:https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-oil-attack-this-is-the-big-one-11568480576?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/FNI0mJ2nm2

[nigelpm] 12/9/2019 23:00

Nice way of looking at it.

Market been right so far - question is has it now completely underestimated future earnings.

[emptyend] 12/9/2019 22:11

So....ballpark numbers (not calculated!) So E&OE...Enterprise value £265mn (incl net debt)Assume Merlon deal is still "at market", so $215mn price is around £170mn........which means VN is currently valued at less than £95mn......rather low, IMO, given cashflow and potential. Would still be rather low at twice the price.....and possibly rather more.Balance sheet assets (excluding cash & other current assets) in SE Asia are $496mn ....so around £400mn (was much more before 2015 writedown). In other words, VN assets seem to be currently valued by the market at about a quarter of the balance sheet value. And pre-tax profit from VN is currently running at c. £50mn pa.There are a number of possible conclusions....but the market value seems wrong (as the high yield suggests).

[oilinvestoral] 12/9/2019 14:15

What could Vietnam assets possibly fetch? Surly must be more than current SP?

[knowing] 12/9/2019 12:40

Peel Hunt out with a buy reiteration

[crossing_the_rubicon] 12/9/2019 11:05

Tourn

"Ever since I encountered this apocryphal story, I have been an admirer of Alexander's brutal but effective approach to problem solving..

There is another complex knot, currently much in the news, that might benefit from a similar approach"


Indeed. I know just the person to deal with it as well...

A dictator with mucho benevolence!
:)

[tournesol] 12/9/2019 10:19

Wasn't Pharos built by Alexander the Great?

I am reminded of his brilliant solution to the problem of the Gordian Knot. That was a knot so large and complex that it was impossible for anyone to untie it. Many tried but all failed. Until Alexander tried a new approach and simply sliced through the knot with his sword.

Ever since I encountered this apocryphal story, I have been an admirer of Alexander's brutal but effective approach to problem solving..

There is another complex knot, currently much in the news, that might benefit from a similar approach.

[emptyend] 12/9/2019 07:14

Also a good point. Not directly.....nor any time soon....but there is likely to come a time perhaps in 3-4 years when that becomes a live prospect.

[glavey] 12/9/2019 04:57

Does this suggest they might be wanting to divest Vietnam ops.?


FWIW:

[emptyend] 11/9/2019 18:22

Pharos was a lighthouse off Alexandria which lasted about 1,600 years - and was one of the Seven Wonders of the World.I should rename the thread "Rebuilding Pharos" ......Another 1,600 years would do for me.....

[pumph] 11/9/2019 18:02

Will this thread be renamed ‘Pharos - The Endgame’ ?

[pumph] 11/9/2019 13:50

I think this is all they’ve said before about the HTHP well:

The TGT-31P well was drilled through the main reservoir sections to total target depth on 16 January 2019 targeting the deeper high temperature, high pressure section below the main producing horizons at the H5-WHP. The deep section encountered hydrocarbons in the D1 and E Oligocene targets. A single DST was conducted and oil flowed to surface under controlled conditions. Evaluation of this data to appraise the possible additional potential in the equivalent deeper sections of the wider TGT area is ongoing to establish if this new high pressure, high temperature play continues in the up-dip TGT fault blocks to the north.

Note they said nothing detailed about flow rates, etc. Presumably reasonably encouraging to merit further drilling.

[dodger777] 11/9/2019 13:02

One of the issues I find with the company is they don’t say much about anything that’s going on.
Then need to up their game in the comms department. If they are rebranding themselves then a perfect opportunity to start being more proactive at getting the company noticed.
On the dividend. As I said I would like to see it split over the year, it would help attract more investors having two divvys per year. Maybe something else the company will consider during their rebranding exercise.

[pumph] 11/9/2019 12:53

The SOCO name is effectively tainted in the investment world so hopefully this proposed name change is a further step to rebuild the company with a different brand and focus. The HTHP appraisal well is also intriguing as EE points out - they’ve not said much about this before.

[greyingsurfer] 11/9/2019 12:31

I'd think the WWF issue is a large part of the reason for the name change.

My first response on reading the proposal was "oh no!", but I think there is an amount of sense in it, both in (hopefully) reducing association with the WWF comapaign and reflecting the new interest in Egypt - which may well not be a bad diplomatic move with the authorities there.

[nigelpm] 11/9/2019 09:13

this will draw a line under the past (and finished) WWF vendetta.

Very fair point.

I initially thought it was just a vanity thing but good logic in that.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 11/9/2019 08:50

"SOCO is proposing to change its registered name to Pharos Energy plc. The proposed change of name, in order to take effect, requires SOCO shareholders to pass a special resolution at a general meeting of the Company. A circular to shareholders convening a general meeting for this purpose is expected to be posted by the end the mont"

Suspect it is the portent of a focusing on the new Egypt operations(and a sale of Vietnam assets) myself.

Pharos...How very Egyptian! :)


Steady as you go rest of it..

Prefer a semi annual divi as well

[emptyend] 11/9/2019 08:22

A few comments on a quick skim:- I would also like to see the dividend split. With only three months of operations in Egypt in these numbers I can understand not doing so at this point.- Post-investment cashflow up a bit- Intrigued by the potential of a deeper play in VN and an explo well at year-end to test it- Not so intrigued by seeing there is a delay to exploring the north of the concession in Egypt. It seems to me that there is no timeline visibility for that and (since it is out of company hands) I trust there is some arrangement to avoid forced relinquishment.- The Israeli blocks look to fit behind Egypt and 125/6 in the explo pipeline. 3D over 125/6 looks likely to be done around the time of the planned ENI well on 124, which may assist interpretation.- re the name change, I normally am not keen on seeing such changes but, in view of the strategic shifts in geographical focus, this will draw a line under the past (and finished) WWF vendetta. - I note the sell-side analysts have a capital markets day coming. There is certainly a need for the market to better-understand the strategic direction and 1-5 year potential.

[dodger777] 11/9/2019 08:04

Dividend is paid only once a year. Personally I’d like to see that split.

Oh and I see nutjob buywell is in here too, he really is a ignorant ridiculous cretin.

[nigelpm] 11/9/2019 07:55

Group Net Debt $33.7m (1H 2018: Net Cash $128.8m)

That's what happens when you acquire a business for $215m (which you pay $153m in cash for) and pay out a dividend.

[nigelpm] 11/9/2019 07:54

There isn't one as yet.

[plasybryn] 11/9/2019 07:50

Where's the dividend?