Soco Share Discussion Threads

[oilinvestoral] 20/9/2019 08:05

Close up 67p would confirm a change in the short term trend IMO. Volume & momentum indicators also turning positive for a change

[crossing_the_rubicon] 19/9/2019 08:17

You can smell it in the air - war is coming.

[emptyend] 18/9/2019 22:47

.....Sky report that the "Houthi rebels" are now threatening "scores of targets in Saudi Arabia and UAE"

[nigelpm] 18/9/2019 19:59

I concur ee. I'm shocked at the benign move in the oil price now that it has settled down - just over 3 bucks higher.

What chance another attack over the weekend? Apparently the last one was deliberately targeted on the weekend to ensure no civilian casualties.

[emptyend] 18/9/2019 18:22

Interesting piece on the background:BBC News - Why Saudi Arabia and Iran are bitter rivalshttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42008809.....suggests Iran is getting the upper hand. If so, the military options for Saudi look likely to involve the US (given the gap in resources)?.........the Aramco float may also get scuppered in an escalation.It feels to me like a high-stakes stand-off is going to be broken - perhaps dramatically?

[crossing_the_rubicon] 18/9/2019 16:58

Saudi Arabia says Iran is behind the attack on oil installations


BUT Saudi defence spokesman says its not clear whether the attack was launched from Iran or Iraq


Unconfirmed Reports of Unknown Warplanes conducting Airstrikes on Iranian Axis Forces at Al-Bukamal

[crossing_the_rubicon] 18/9/2019 16:55

Henry Jones
@hthjones
·
2h
In essence, the points thus far:

-Saudi Arabia says Aramco attack originated from north
-WITH Iranian support
-Using Iranian-made cruise missiles & drones

“This attack could not have originated from Yemen” spokesman says

[crossing_the_rubicon] 18/9/2019 12:23

Worrying times indeed EE.
Who knows how this pans out.

Nice Monty Python reference :)

Saudi Aramco's Oil Production Recovery Timetable
Summary
Attack reduced production by 5.7 million barrels per day.
But half has been restored over the past two days.
Full restoration is expected by month's end.
Aramco will meet the shortfall through its own inventories.
World oil market will see no disruption, and so market price reaction should be reversed as production is restored.

[emptyend] 18/9/2019 12:06

If they are now thinking that Iran definitely did this and also that the attack was more sophisticated than first thought, then the chance of escalation seems to be significant. This is no longer a case of random action by "Yemeni rebels"....it is military action by one major oil producer on another.With the recent shipping attacks and heightened US presence, who knows what will happen next?Also, in the circumstances, I'd suggest the claims from the Saudis that it is a "mere fleshwound" are as reliable as The Black Knight's self-reporting of his own condition....

[crossing_the_rubicon] 18/9/2019 12:00

In case anyone interested...

Geolocation of Buqayq facilities Air defense systems.
this facilities at least defended by one Patriot PAC-2/3 , 3 Skyguard and one Shahine Batteries.



As I said before, satellite images prove that all targets in #Aramco's oil facilities at #Abqaiq & #Khurais are hit from one direction which is Northwest (#Iraq) and it is proving that Quds-1 cruise missiles of #IRGC were used in this attack not Shahed-129 UCAVs!

Quds-1 is a miniaturized variant of Soumar cruise missile, an Iranian copy of Russian Kh-55. Its small size is helping it to remain undetected to most of the #SaudiArabia's Early Warning radar sites. But this small size causes a big problem which reduces size of its warhead!

[crossing_the_rubicon] 18/9/2019 10:17

𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚0417; 𝘾𝙧𝙖𝙗 Retweeted
austin
@AggieIslander
·
Sep 17
My first test flight has 12 Soumar missiles routing over Kuwait and dropping south behind the patriot and hawk installations. This pairs nicely with the early reports of unknown objects in Kuwaiti airspace leading into the attack.. now I let it play out and see what pops on radar...

[crossing_the_rubicon] 17/9/2019 15:28

Senior US officials have told CBS they've identified the locations in Iran from which a combination of more than 20 drones and cruise missiles were launched against the Saudi oil facilities. They say the locations are in southern Iran at the northern end of the Persian Gulf.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 17/9/2019 08:15

Saudi Aramco faces weeks or months before the majority of supply from the giant Abqaiq plant is restored after this weekend’s devastating aerial attack, according to people familiar with matter.

Aramco is still assessing the state of the plant and the scope of repairs, but the state oil company currently believes less than half of the the plant’s capacity can be restored quickly, the people said, asking not to be identified before an official announcement. It’s a more pessimistic outlook than Aramco had immediately after the incident, they said.

All eyes are on how fast the kingdom can recover from the weekend’s devastating strike, which knocked out roughly 5% of global supply and triggered a record surge in oil prices. The loss of Abqaiq, which handles 5.7 million barrels of oil a day, or about half of Saudi production, is the single worst sudden disruption to the oil market.

Aramco, the world’s largest exporter, is currently supplying customers from its stockpiles, but is asking some buyers to accept different grades. President Trump has said he’s ready to release oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ensure ample supply.

Saudi Arabia is also starting idle offshore fields to replace some of the lost production.


Key questions

The first is just how much geopolitical risk is present and has that been under appreciated by markets?

The second is the Khurais field is about equidistant from the border with Iraq and Yemen so how did these drones penetrate air space without being intercepted.

The third is what is likely to do well as a result of these events?

[crossing_the_rubicon] 16/9/2019 10:08

Smells to me as if someone wants a major war in the region myself...

[emptyend] 16/9/2019 09:32

I think we'd all be well-advised to ignore propaganda (from either side).....

[knowing] 16/9/2019 08:49

I think we know that.

Buywell you missed 62 ---> 66+ as a trade so you are not clever

[crossing_the_rubicon] 16/9/2019 08:34

Higher Oil prices surely a positive for Aramco IPO though surely?
Wont be buying ever myself...

[nigelpm] 16/9/2019 08:14

That was the initial view - sounds like it has changed somewhat since. Lots of reports out saying different things. Likelihood is Saudi won't want to admit it's going to take time even if it will do given the upcoming Aramco IPO.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 16/9/2019 07:16

Production back in 48 hours - that's disappointing(and impressive)

Damage not as severe as expected then Nigel??