Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[dp1umb] 12/9/2018 10:56

PPVN again a good post, but don’t be surprised if the fundraising was well below 26p.

[ppvn] 12/9/2018 10:47

Hi jw30,

I am not. I am invested here and as such would never approve the grotesque salary I'd demand. No idea on results but they will of course be met with a cacophony of "losses up" and "cash balances dwindle" etc from the financial press. Would imagine they need to do it fairly soon though.

[jw30] 12/9/2018 10:43

Hi ppvn. Are you an extension of the company’s PR machine? Do you know when the H1 results will be released?

[ppvn] 12/9/2018 10:09

Not sure anyone can help you with that Spirito, I can make educated guesses at the bottom and top of our range but I'm afraid anywhere inbetween is a lot more tricky and interpretation is significantly tougher. I've been asking myself similar however and these were my primary thoughts, for what they are worth.

1. Fundamentally we are still bound by our CB range which we can now be pretty confident lies between 25 and 42p.
2. Before and during this latest episode, CB funds have behaved normally. Yesterday there was less volume put through by them than I'd expected so I personally draw the conclusion their thoughts are they can release more into circulation at higher prices thus making more cash, I.e. share price positive.
3. If there was doubt about the pricing of stg2 equity (If there is anything to be taken) we would have seen a lot more short selling. It's possible there was a lot, but I for one was not able to identify any.
4. What here changed last week? Slightly rhetorical but we found out that sirius can be expected to get to a (barring horrendous cost overruns - not impossible) fully funded to production position by q1 2019. I don't underestimate the significance of this.

The main shaft sinks (and interface risk per muckshifter's posts) are now the gamble that we take (since the MTS risk has now shifted onto a contractor). Will they be successful? Will the costs spiral out of control? Will further TorPs be signed? What will the $1.5bn debt interest look like?

My personal opinion has not changed too significantly. I view the cost overrun as disappointing but the drop in risk significant. I also am cautiously optimistic about the prospect of a partner with either shaft sinking experience or deep pockets. The spectre of further CB or equity dilution remains but I place my faith in the bod to deliver for me. I have no way of knowing what they will achieve but as I said last week I'd be hacked off it it's anywhere near 26p without significant benefit to us.

Whilst we are playing guessing games, 11% I know you were historically partial to the yellow stuff. Similar to the dow in Jan looking toppy, I feel the yellow stuff is now looking bottomy. Break upwards on the cards imo by next Fri (21st). If it hasn't moved significantly by then pls disregard. Only my tuppence.

[jw30] 12/9/2018 10:06

Share price pumped up to tempt the CB to convert? They need the CB out of the way I guess.

[spirito] 12/9/2018 09:28

Those that were scared into selling have gone. Where will this settle without more news? late 20s early 30s?

[stoaty1] 12/9/2018 09:15

Good point PPVN !

[ppvn] 12/9/2018 09:03

Big Ben is a bell, so perhaps that's appropriate. Only kidding of course. That's just my pinikity nature.

[coolhandfluke] 11/9/2018 18:33

I'll lend you my bus pass. Sounds like a long journey. A bit like Sirius so make yourself comfortable.Cheers

[ppvn] 11/9/2018 18:18

Hi CHF,

No problem. I was under the impression nobody ever won the speedboat anyway. Bus fare will be just fine.

P.s. did I mention I lived on the moon?

[coolhandfluke] 11/9/2018 17:40

HiPPVNDefinitely earned your bus fare home. Ooh, you nearly won the speed boat.CheersCHF

[ppvn] 11/9/2018 17:24

Hi CHF.

I apologise. I would be no good as Jim Bowen obviously since I ask the wrong questions as quizmaster. I was in fact referring to the trade at 16.55 for 413k shares.

Over the past few days there have been trades reported at (just before) 5pm that have been priced around the lows of the day. I assume these to be our short funds buying shares back in the market. Today, the 5pm (4.55pm) trade has switched back to being on the highs, so I believe that whichever fund was buying (thus supporting the share price at the lows) has now resumed selling. This, in my interpretation, means that there is now support for our shareprice independent of our short equity long CB holders.

It's only guesswork as I say, but with 1.5mm extra sells rather than buys today and +4.8% share price movement, I view that as a positive.

[coolhandfluke] 11/9/2018 17:10

So are we saying someone paying 27.75p means another strong day tomorrow?

[ppvn] 11/9/2018 17:04

Anyone see what's changed with the 5pm trade today?

Purely guesswork of course but all of my posts are guesses really. Can't tell the future by looking at the past, after all!

[ppvn] 11/9/2018 16:37

Wow that would have been great news! Bit smaller and bit lower but 1mm @ 26.84 is ok. Suspect another couple might come in before 5pm but should be rather small today, if any at all.

[hazl] 11/9/2018 16:36

good post stoaty

[not my real name] 11/9/2018 16:34

Exactly 27 and 6m

NMRN

[ppvn] 11/9/2018 16:26

Ok so I'll make another stab at what the 16.35 number should look like today. If it's around 3-4mm with a close number above 27p that'll be very good news in my book. Anyone else guessing?