Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[11_percent] 11/9/2018 11:21

"The delay in stage 2 is ominous. Banks want a senior partner to help the company deliver the project. CF and the BoD have made a serious misjudgement. At this point, a partner will only come in at a fire sale price. Remember end of Q1 2019 is also the time for brexit. Further delay in Stage 2 can conveniently be buried in the background of the chaos that will ensue with a hard brexit. Such ingenuity is commendable!"

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Spot on, although there is one point you might want to elaborate on..........................."CF and the BoD have made a serious misjudgement."

[11_percent] 11/9/2018 11:15

Please bear in mind that st2 has a binary outcome as stated in the rns so there is nothing in the bag yet.

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There have bee a lot binary outcomes in the history of this share......but we always move on.

[dp1umb] 11/9/2018 11:14

Chris so with all the information before you you still turn to Johns posts??!!

So why do you think the shares have dropped approximately 35% in a couple of weeks or is it smoke and mirrors and a short squeeze ?? and the shares should be trading at circa 60p????

[11_percent] 11/9/2018 11:09

Please bear in mind that st2 has a binary outcome as stated in the rns so there is nothing in the bag yet.

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Wise words Grasshopper......very wise.....

[chrisatbirdies] 11/9/2018 11:01

John wise
Nice timely post
 jw30 what's your reply to that.
If I wasn't invested here, I would move on.the de- rampers are obviously trying to get in at a cheaper price.
Good luck all.we didn't expect an easy ride but it will be worth it in a couple of years time.

[chrisatbirdies] 11/9/2018 11:01

John wise
Nice timely post
 jw30 what's your reply to that.
If I wasn't invested here, I would move on.the de- rampers are obviously trying to get in at a cheaper price.
Good luck all.we didn't expect an easy ride but it will be worth it in a couple of years time.

[11_percent] 11/9/2018 11:01

jw30,

Starting to like you......straight to the heart of the new paradigm.

"Hard to believe the banks will provide an unsecured debt of that amount, especially to a startup company."
This is the situation the scammers have wanted all along.
It wont be the banks that provide the $1.5 billion.
The Wall Street financiers have managed to push the banks out (with or without help) and will supply the funding.
The funding will be in the form of BONDS, at VERY HIGH COUPON (SAY 11-12%) and the bonds will be SECURED ON THE MINE. Bonds may be convertible, not clear yet.

This "new partner" has already been hinted at in the RNS.

In case you missed it.......THE FINANCE WILL BE SECURED ON THE MINE.

[ppvn] 11/9/2018 10:59

Hi jw30,

You have indeed hit the nail on it's head. Stage 2 is primarily intended to be debt based and as such we can take comfort that banks view sirius' fixed assets at a value of at least $1.5bn, as they would obviously be securing the debt against the mine. I find that of great comfort.

Nothing is indeed in the bag as you say, but to have indications that $1.5bn debt and $1.5bn IPA guarantee (CF covered this part extensively in his 9am call) is available to them is in my opinion great news as I said at the time.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not taking a victory lap. NMRN, I know you have an eye for detail. Next time I utter the words "strange" or "not CB funds" or "disappointing" please give me a nudge. Having been through last week's posts I note an alarming number of times I used these adjectives and failed to act in any way. Perhaps Mr oz was right. Maybe I have become accustomed to Sirius' face...

[jw30] 11/9/2018 10:47

Hi Ppvn. There is a difference between st1 which was an equity raise and st2 that is going to be debt based. Other than the presumed IPA guarantee for $1.5 billion, where is the guarantee or security for the other $1.5 billion? Hard to believe the banks will provide an unsecured debt of that amount, especially to a startup company. Besides, the IPA guarantee was not mentioned in the rns and one cannot help but question whether the government is getting a bit cold feet.
Please bear in mind that st2 has a binary outcome as stated in the rns so there is nothing in the bag yet.

[ppvn] 11/9/2018 10:00

Hi jw30,

I too view last week's announcement as a watershed moment. We found out banks are prepared to give $1.5bn loans and that the IPA guarantee is also pencilled for $1.5bn. Some were shocked at the prospect of a small dilution potentially being on the cards (I say small because it's about 1/3 of Sirius' current market cap as opposed to 3x for stg1). Doesn't look all that dire to me.

Cash burn is something I'm personally confident is being managed effectively. Yes we have spent cash but yes a mine is being built. Will we have funds in place to cover? Of course we will.

Perhaps you missed it but PIs aren't driving this price movement. Didn't anyone hear that 25 is the new 22?

[hvs] 11/9/2018 09:58

Its only other peoples money why worry.

[stoaty1] 11/9/2018 09:56

Johnwise there is much good news, but also bad news! I think on balance it is slightly more positive than negative. I am sure that many investors(institutional ) expected some overrun and extra costs. Hopefully the BOD has got all the bad news out of the way!

[johnwise] 11/9/2018 09:41

Six financial institutions experienced in mining and infrastructure project finance have signed a non-binding, but mutually agreed, term sheet to arrange the financing - Export Development Canada, ING (ING); JP Morgan (JPM); Lloyds Bank (LLOY); Societe Generale (GLE), Corporate & Investment Banking; and The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).

WH Ireland analyst Paul Smith thinks this is all good news. "We believe that news shows there is appetite for a large amount of debt over the Sirius Polyhalite project and that this should provide comfort for those who are considering investing - that there will be a completion of the project and the generation of the significant returns we anticipate from the project."

[jw30] 11/9/2018 09:38

Last week’s rns was a watershed moment. The delay in stage 2 is ominous. Banks want a senior partner to help the company deliver the project. CF and the BoD have made a serious misjudgement. At this point, a partner will only come in at a fire sale price. Remember end of Q1 2019 is also the time for brexit. Further delay in Stage 2 can conveniently be buried in the background of the chaos that will ensue with a hard brexit. Such ingenuity is commendable!
Cash balance at end of 2017 was just under £400 million and they were hoping for stage 2 financial close end of the year so that Gina’s money can be drawn down. Half year numbers are eagerly awaited to see what the cash burn rate has been so far.
Current market cap is ~$1.5 billion and the company needs $3.6 billion. Hmmm....is stage 2 doable?

[7rademark] 11/9/2018 09:03

Traders will be all over this today as it's showing as oversold so expect a bounce imo, long term who knows.

[not my real name] 11/9/2018 09:03

Morning all,

Now the initial firestorm has passed and we are all breathing normally I thought I would post something which has been sadly missing for the last 3 trading days.................facts!

Since the news broke on Thursday just under 260 million have been traded. That is obviously 130 million each of buys and sells.

Shares in circulation total 4.7 billion so around 2.75% of shares have changed hands.

A minimum of 97.25% of shareholders have reacted to the news by doing absolutely nothing! Or if you prefer, the cool heads outnumber the irrational ones by 35 to 1.

I say a minimum of 97.25% because I suspect a lot of the shares may have been traded multiple times by people exploiting the sudden volatility.

I can't remember which famous investor said it but it was something like "investing is the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient."

Wise words indeed!

Edit: It was Warren Buffett.

NMRN

[guppy57] 11/9/2018 09:00

Next stage of works will cost more than projected. Plus potential dilution when next round of fund raising. Check last rns released.

[eurofox] 11/9/2018 08:40

what a useless lot of shorters, when are you going to get the price down?

[davethehorse] 11/9/2018 08:29

Another day of shorting and big over hangs to clear

[pazzuzu] 11/9/2018 08:22

What's the chatter here? Why the fall? Rumour of a share issue for second stage? Sorry, had given up with sxx as thought missed the boat but as it's getting ti early 20's may dip my toe.

[deanroberthunt] 11/9/2018 08:20

still falling...shorts haven't given up yet

[joshuam] 11/9/2018 07:51

Good luck to those brave holders

[mr.oz] 11/9/2018 07:42

You may be required 😜

[squire007] 11/9/2018 07:34

22p put me down for millions :-)