Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[ppvn] 07/9/2018 23:22

A sage comment as ever, Mr Oz. But polyhalite and poly4 are just different trade names and the fact remains that ICL are trying their best to get everything behind upping production no?

Clotted cream, European sales I would wager are lagging since there has historically been less chloride based fertilizers used, no? There are numerous studies and papers that have begun to show that potash can damage soil structures and in fact reduce yields (e.g. hxxps://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131028184839.htm - loads more about). I'm not saying that poly4 is some sort of miracle but it certainly seems to perform more like SOP at lower percentage mineral content but obviously is organically certified. Either way I think it is safe to say it's a decent product. The study referenced is for broad acre crops primarily that sirius are not yet targeting, but then if it's a paper on low chloride sensitivity crops, then the effect being magnified on the high value chloride sensitive varieties makes even more sense and bodes well for the future.

NMRN! PH50?!

Well I never! An alias!!

I too enjoyed the delicious irony. Also the IPA guarantee is clearly the reason for the equity element being necessary. Bank finance wasn't the limiting factor but the issue was the IPA would be reduced if the debt went up. So there you go, it's all the taxmans fault again.

[clotted cream] 07/9/2018 23:09

PPVN

There is indeed a market for poly4, as everything has a price, but it is not $140/ ton at today's nutrient pricing. That is a price that has been used by Sirius based on historic values of potash that may or may not return in an oversupplied market.
The difficulty of selling poly4 in Europe is a pretty clear indication of the products standing.

[mr.oz] 07/9/2018 22:59

Am afraid currently there is only a projected and agreed in principle market for POLY4.

SXX are, however convincing, the little upstarts.

[ph50] 07/9/2018 22:54

beeezzz,

Greedy bankers? Contractors want their cut? Greed greed?

I am sure you only invested here for purely altruistic reasons. Give the poor world some extra fertilizer in their time of need, support the deprived North with a couple of thousand jobs, help the Exchequer with a few millions in extra tax revenue. I get it and it's very laudable. Congratulations.

Me? I just thought I could make loads of money!

NMRN

[beeezzz] 07/9/2018 21:29

All we need is major famine and you'll see the price of fertilizers going through the roof, even now Iran and countries bordering are in desperate need of food.

Problem has always been the money men want to much of the pie, greedy bankers are all the same, CF must have know what he was up against due fact he financed mines in the past. Contractors are also driving a hard bargain, they want their cut, greed greed.

He'll go for equity, only way to preserve a reasonable payout for shareholders.

[ppvn] 07/9/2018 20:53

There is a market for poly4

[dp1umb] 07/9/2018 20:51

PPVN and what’s your point??

[ppvn] 07/9/2018 19:59

"Lots of companies don’t succeed over time. What do they fundamentally do wrong? They usually miss the future."

Fertilizer is increasingly going to require sulphate to replace that which is dwindling in the atmosphere.

Fertilizer is increasingly going to require less chloride due to salting the earth over decades of the cheap stuff.

ICL dismissed the future of boulby. Now they are desperately trying to play catch up on a seam that's less than 20% of the thickness of Sirius'.

[wild goose] 07/9/2018 18:20

Ok.....we need to get real here......the MAIN FACT in all of this......SXX is a dead duck.

It does matter if the mine gets built....there is NO MARKET...for the product.

After years of trying to ramp Poly4, they can not even et the 7mill ton off-take agreements.

There is no market for Poly4.

[wild goose] 07/9/2018 18:13

mr.ozzy being a bit controversial.

=================

mr.oz
7 Sep '18 - 16:51 - 34000 of 34004
0 1 0
PPVN. That's how we'd like to be thinking
But not many high profile FTSE 250 shares held by Instis are expected to drop around 25% by mid day and even more over the course of a week

It's not good form and credibility does take a hit imv. Not forever maybe 🤔

[wild goose] 07/9/2018 18:01

hvs
7 Sep '18 - 15:45 - 33989 of 34003
0 0 0
They haven’t a hope in hells chance of getting a share issue off above 22p

lol !!!!!

More like 10p

=================

Na.....2p...

[ppvn] 07/9/2018 17:08

Nmrn, brilliant thanks, that cheered me up. Haven't bothered to look at my account but I can hazard a guess.

[not my real name] 07/9/2018 17:06

PPVN,

"this share isn't a tinpot aim share anymore"

I think it's having a second crack at it this week! LOL

NMRN

[ppvn] 07/9/2018 17:02

Indeed Mr. Oz. But that is how Thomas Staley shall be rewarded for getting institutional ownership up. How many PIs will really be left holding when sirius go into production?

There are to be many unexpected bumps and bounces here. Sure, yesterday "officially" raised the possibility of dilution but it's been on the cards for ages. I honestly didn't take yesterday's news as anything but reassuring.

Have a read of the IPA website over the weekend. I did at the start of the week following the bizarre share price movement and they make it perfectly clear that only funding shortfalls impossible to fill will be guaranteed. To have haggled seemingly $1.5bn out of them is no mean feat. The partner talk is interesting and there should be many possible partners eagerly inspecting sirius projections.

We shall see. No risk without reward (and vice versa...)

[mr.oz] 07/9/2018 16:51

PPVN. That's how we'd like to be thinking
But not many high profile FTSE 250 shares held by Instis are expected to drop around 25% by mid day and even more over the course of a week

It's not good form and credibility does take a hit imv. Not forever maybe 🤔

[kirtonender9] 07/9/2018 16:48

NMRNWhat on earth are you talking about?It makes no difference whether you hold or sell. Your holding will be worth less.

[not my real name] 07/9/2018 16:48

Wouldn't disagree, but the investment case remains the same. However much PIs end up with it should show a very decent profit!

All IMHO,

NMRN

[ppvn] 07/9/2018 16:47

With respect, this share isn't a tinpot aim share anymore. We have significant institutional ownership. We have significant market cap. We have a huge investment not finalised but on the cards from both banks as well as being underwritten by the IPA. When stage 2 is completed some (presumably institutional) will be given the opportunity to buy into the project in significant size.

I think some people here underestimate the potential of this company. If you think the price is going to be whispered to those buying in and all the associated elbow nudging and back room phone calls you'll be disappointed.

If the balance is made up by equity the shares will be placed into some sort of "partner" hands, and sirius will have the buy in of a significant new investor.

20p, below 20p, etc etc is literally pie in the sky. Won't happen.

[kirtonender9] 07/9/2018 16:44

Major construction projects 99% of the time end up costing far more than expected. I doubt the extra costs announced this week will be the last and more investment will be needed before they start earning. Its still a risky project.

[not my real name] 07/9/2018 16:41

kirtonender9,

Nobody gets shafted or loses money..............unless they sell!

Not exactly a radical solution to a simple conundrum but one I have used successfully over the years!

NMRN

[hvs] 07/9/2018 16:33

This enables the construction of the overland conveyor to be deferred until such time as it can be funded through operating cash flows, currently assumed to be 2025.

lol !!!!! HS2 comes to mind.

[mr.oz] 07/9/2018 16:28

hvs. BOD have done a very good job so far imv, of what is a huge project.
Am happy to give them some space to develop.
PIs aren't really centre of their scope

[hvs] 07/9/2018 16:23

The private investor will get shafted again not only from the drop in share price but also dilution.

No mention of the IDIOTs in charge.

[kirtonender9] 07/9/2018 16:17

Any share placing will most likely be shorted by those involved before its announced. And the placing price will be below the current prevailing price so they get 2 bites of the cherry. The private investor will get shafted again not only from the drop in share price but also dilution.