Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[thebradski007] 10/9/2018 19:37

Filter the losers out ;0)

[ppvn] 10/9/2018 17:41

I'm not sure it's FOMO in the way you expect Mr.Oz. We shall find out in due course tomorrow though.

All up in the air but think it's beginning to clear.

[mr.oz] 10/9/2018 17:39

News needed to arrest the decline imv
FOMO not strong enough here

[davethehorse] 10/9/2018 17:18

Still an overhang lurking??

[ppvn] 10/9/2018 17:06

All a bit smaller than I'd expected. Tomorrow should be a better day for the longs.

(Not trading advice)

[ppvn] 10/9/2018 16:27

Would be nice to see a UT at 16.35 of perhaps a couple of million, then a trade or two declared just before 5pm for a few millions at a lower price. Place your bets.

[stoaty1] 10/9/2018 16:00

WOW, there are some real desperate idiots on this board, both long and short.
Do you think that by posting multiple posts, one after another, that any right minded investor will follow your advice?

[davethehorse] 10/9/2018 15:15

Let the selling commence....

[datait] 10/9/2018 14:53

Is that BLUE hehehehehehe

[deanroberthunt] 10/9/2018 14:44

noch nicht

[carla1] 10/9/2018 14:37

Lol ...May I declare a BLUEY CARTEL...25P LOL X

[datait] 10/9/2018 14:28

get it up yous lol

[deanroberthunt] 10/9/2018 14:16

pre pair for lift off.....

[davethehorse] 10/9/2018 14:02

Lets see if it finishes the last hour strongly my guess is it wont and will be hammered again

[datait] 10/9/2018 13:51

Cabin crew get ready for take-off.

[datait] 10/9/2018 13:38

going blue

[datait] 10/9/2018 13:33

watch and weep you fannys

[decentprofits] 10/9/2018 12:57

It is easy to tell when share price drop have bottomed out by looking primitive doom posts from desperate wannaby shorters trying to make at least some money. They were so obviously late to shorting party. Next tim guys, next time.

[ppvn] 10/9/2018 12:52

Hi NMRN,

Not easy I agree. However, my rationale for a rise above 25p is thus.

1. The stg1 finance was executed at a price of 20p for a $50m subscription of GR, with $250m in return for a 5% royalty that has not yet been drawn down (due to unspecified hurdles as yet unclear).
2. At the time, there were about 2.3bn shares in issue and, prior to July 2016 the price was about 18-20p give or take. So call it around £460m for the work done so far on the project in 2016 (I.e. poly4 in ground, planning, etc etc).
3. Sirius raised $1.2bn. This was done via a combination of placing (So add to bottom line), CBs (add to bottom line), and then GR's fairly opaque commitment to the project. In my view this value therefore can be added to sirius intrinsic market cap (I.e. £460m plus stg1 bottom line contributions).
4. Sirius do have options. The IPA make it clear that any guarantee has to be as almost "lender of last resort". So whilst our share price has taken an absolute hammering over the past week the fact remains that $1.5bn bank loans has been indicated as available, but critically for the $1.5bn IPA guarantee to progress an unspecified CB or equity offering has to be swallowed.

This in my view is the interesting part. I don't feel that 20p or below would be a fair price for contribution at this stage. Given that when CBs are fully converted, $50m is placed with GR (If this piece actually goes ahead) there will be about 5.7bn shares in issue so at 20p would mean a market cap of £1.14bn.

Given the investment in infrastructure thus far, given the plans and permissions, the other assets sirius have, is that a fair price? I'd imagine, perhaps optimistically, that a few different players might be interested in an investment. So it's up to sirius to get them interested at a fair price. I doubt this investment would come at a discount purely because I assume they wouldn't be able to buy in the market without driving the price up.

Please don't take my optimism as a recommendation. I'm only stating my investment case for scrutiny. Feel free to disagree. There are many risks but fundamentally I don't see how my investment case has been shaken by last week's news.

Edit; apologies forgot to respond to your direct mention of the 25p line - well last Thurs when all this kicked off there were some big shapes traded at 25p and just above - I think the CB funds (or at least one or three) that are currently short sirius are buyers around 25p. Will see after close if they still are buying here.

[datait] 10/9/2018 12:38

going blue folks.