Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[stoaty1] 11/9/2018 14:53

What most of the cretin's(rampers and de-rampers) don't seem to realize is that no matter what they say, it will have absolutely no effect on the share price . However, it will however encourage people to sell or buy, and will not necessarily be the right thing to do or for the right reasons!

[ppvn] 11/9/2018 13:46

Ha, brilliant just picked up on your edit NMRN - sorry for my typo!

We'll call it one all and leave it there! :-)

[johnwise] 11/9/2018 13:35

Sirius Minerals - The project explained

Video

[johnwise] 11/9/2018 13:32

Some of worst deramper you have come across? This would be good opportunity to warn other investors (esp newbies) about the heartless souls who will quite happily slag off shares without any real credible info .

[ppvn] 11/9/2018 13:30

Ha, I am not but I do know it thanks to the power of youtube. It would have been ok on that show - I think it was Viz that highlighted that by saying you lived on the moon you'd have still done ok - because everyone got a bus fare home didn't they.

Anyway glad to see the excitement seems to be abating. Hope nobody sold at the lows because the only winners there would be the short funds. Doesn't seem like too much was taken by them though so some shares have found new owners.

Not too long until 30p again I'd wager. But we shall see.

[datait] 11/9/2018 13:26

Time to bail out now folks, dont want to be greedy good luck all.

[not my real name] 11/9/2018 13:22

Haha PPVN,

You sound a bit like Jim Bowen on Bullseye (if you're old enough to remember.)

LOOK AT WHAT YOU COULD'VE WON!

Edit: Don't worry about pernickety. I prefer to call it attention to detail. :)

NMRN

[11_percent] 11/9/2018 13:15

jw30,

Absolutely.

The Stg2 BONDS will only be part of the Stg2 finance.

I suspect they will try to have a placing.....which will ultimately end up with the PIs.

[ppvn] 11/9/2018 13:12

Hi NMRN,

Thanks for your words of comfort, as ever they are true enough! After things like this happen I always like to take stock and think if I could have done things differently but you are of course right and no, I agree there wasn't anything I could put my finger on that could explain the dip before the plunge. But 40% more shares! Argh! Haha.

I enjoyed your calcs this am. I didn't want to say anything at the time but it's a bit more like 4% sheep. Quite a bit of volume went through on NEX and other exchanges (I made the total around 400mm but that's just me being pinickity). I guess TS will be getting his performance bonus, after all!

[jw30] 11/9/2018 13:05

11%. Not sure if they can do most of it in straight bonds which will carry a high coupon rate...probably not sustainable as the cash flow in the initial years will be challenging. Will take time to gain market share. So, some of it in CB?

[spirito] 11/9/2018 13:00

Torp news leaked lol

[not my real name] 11/9/2018 12:59

Afternoon PPVN,

I think you're being a bit hard on yourself. As you say, the signs were there for us all to see but were they strong enough to provoke a sell? Not for me. I think the only way I would have sold is if I was one of the "privileged" few who were fed the inside info.

We are both agreed that this remains a sound investment for the long term and this definitely will not be the last setback so let's raise a glass to todays upward movement and look forward to a long and prosperous bull run.

PS. If I had sold I would have been extremely unlikely to buy back in so could well me kicking myself in a couple of years time!

I am happy to be one of the 97.25% and not the 2.75% sheep.

NMRN

[11_percent] 11/9/2018 12:24

jw30
11 Sep '18 - 11:48 - 34167 of 34172
0 1 0
Hi 11%. The BoD obviously thought they could deliver the project but the banks thought otherwise after perusing the books in the initial due diligence exercise. Well, the BoD have made some serious mistakes ; the project cost estimate had to be revised up twice this year and the mts miscalculation. If the bonds are going to be secured on the mine then it will be another equity raise by the backdoor. The current shareholders value will be decimated by the time the mine is built. Please take note that a partially completed mine has nominal value especially when the product is not a conventional commodity with an established market demand.

===============
"If the bonds are going to be secured on the mine then it will be another equity raise by the backdoor."

I don't see how.

[aoifesweb] 11/9/2018 12:23

Worth a read:

[ppvn] 11/9/2018 12:17

Lol. The shareprice will do what the shareprice will do.

All we are able to do is ride the wave with the information available to us.

[johnwise] 11/9/2018 12:16

11_percent


Rubbish De-Ramp

[11_percent] 11/9/2018 12:11

@mukshifter,

Ref post 34024, see below.

A placing to institutional investors looks the most likely way to avoid bank deadlock, but that would be very bad for private investors imho. Can't see bonds being the preferred option, as I thought that Sirius were desperately keen to have the convertibles converted earlier this year simply to avoid the possibility of a repayment requirement occurring at a very painful stage in the project.


Mmmmmm.............."to avoid bank deadlock,".........."Can't see bonds being the preferred option"..........."avoid the possibility of a repayment requirement occurring at a very painful stage in the project."

It would TWO different bond options that you are talking about.

Yes, the repayments for the EXISTING bonds, could occur at a "very painful stage."

If Stg2 (or part of) is HIGH COUPON BONDS, the existing repayments, could stop the payment of the coupon on the Stg2 bonds...........leading to default.



==============================================

muckshifter
9 Sep '18 - 15:16 - 34024 of 34165
0 0 1
Unfortunately eurofox I think perhaps the opportunity for a 2 for 1 rights issue, without underwriting, etc, as I suggested here some time ago, has been lost because the confidence of many of the individual holders will have been damaged. I still think it would be worthwhile, because it would give shareholders at least some chance of avoiding too much dilution. My expectation was that such an offer would perhaps have generated enough cash to get the first deep shaft down, after which obtaining cash should be easier, but I doubt that would be the case now after this RNS.

A placing to institutional investors looks the most likely way to avoid bank deadlock, but that would be very bad for private investors imho. Can't see bonds being the preferred option, as I thought that Sirius were desperately keen to have the convertibles converted earlier this year simply to avoid the possibility of a repayment requirement occurring at a very painful stage in the project.

I agree with your point concerning what happens when a contractor "hits a brick wall", but if the worst scenario occurred on a deep shaft I think it would be game over for Sirius and the locally registered subsidiary of the contractor because the only possible saviour would be, imho, parent company guarantees from the contractor, and I doubt they would hold.

Interesting point about state intervention - presumably you are meaning intervention in the case of project failure, or imminent failure.

[johnwise] 11/9/2018 12:07

Tunnels on line

[gunsofmarscapone] 11/9/2018 11:57

I’ll move on now, will remain on the watchie for a speculative yet highly tentative future buy. Absolutely no rush whatsoever.

[astjgroom] 11/9/2018 11:56

I can't believe they forecasted £600m out. How can you start a project based on costs then be that amount out? It's more than a hiccup, it's amateur, slip shod and whoever gave the original estimate should go.

[gunsofmarscapone] 11/9/2018 11:54

Well a few days ago it looked bloated at 1.7bn mcap before a single runner bean had been fertilised. It was a popular share wasn’t it? Try to avoid well known and populist AIM shares personally. On a positive note which is also a negative why no placing at 1.7bn mcap? I assume that the market needed to be informed about the funding deficit first?

[jw30] 11/9/2018 11:48

Hi 11%. The BoD obviously thought they could deliver the project but the banks thought otherwise after perusing the books in the initial due diligence exercise. Well, the BoD have made some serious mistakes ; the project cost estimate had to be revised up twice this year and the mts miscalculation. If the bonds are going to be secured on the mine then it will be another equity raise by the backdoor. The current shareholders value will be decimated by the time the mine is built. Please take note that a partially completed mine has nominal value especially when the product is not a conventional commodity with an established market demand.

[davethehorse] 11/9/2018 11:41

Why would anyone want to stay invested in this when you know there is going to be massive dilution- crazy...

[gunsofmarscapone] 11/9/2018 11:36

At 1.2 billion market cap this looks extremely toppy! From the rns and leaving aside expensive tunnel augmentation in order to achieve 80% price of contract security a contingency fund of 580$ Million is required.

This one has been on my watchie for years, it may just may be a highly tentative and speculative buy for LTH and/or trade but I have concerns that a T/O could occur.

All of the above an amateur pov pls dyor.