Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[hvs] 10/9/2018 11:17

Another Great British disaster, we couldn't run a bath with hot water you mean ?

The whole CABINET is a bath .

[deanroberthunt] 10/9/2018 11:17

Tunnel
HS1
Crossrail
GWEP
now this..

major projects, always late and overspent, massively....

[ppvn] 10/9/2018 11:06

Hi Muckshifter,

Thanks for your post at the weekend, it was interesting. It is fair to say that your assertion of risk exposure for sirius has materialised for the MTS, and now it would appear that the shaft sink is now the main part of risk that sirius remain beholden to.

I'm not sure that the banks can be assigned the blame for this recent development? In principle at least it would appear that around $1.5bn (or possibly greater, but then CF mentioned that would reduce the IPA guaranteed element thus largely self defeating) is available. That's nearly 3x greater than we'd previously guessed at so pretty good in my view. I also have drawn a different conclusion to the incentivised offer for CB holders; in my view early repayment, or rather repayment of any sort would not factor into the calculations. It seems in my opinion that to obtain the much larger loan element that existing debt needed to be reduced and by getting further conversions through, outstanding bond debt was reduced to $244m.

After stage1 was completed, I agree with around $300mm cash should remain on sirius' account. But again this will really depend on payment structures to contractors and that is a guess too far for me. How it will appear on the account is largely down to how amortization etc has been calculated for balance sheet purposes as I suspect you alluded to (with your auditor comment..).

The MTS cost overrun seems largely due to the additional risk being taken on by strabag, but then the specification also seems higher, at least to my mind (thicker is better? Or is less more?). So sirius do seem to be benefiting in this regard too.

I can't argue with where the share price is. Its a disappointment. But we have been here a couple of times before and I don't see how this is really any different.

[ialwayswinatmonopoly] 10/9/2018 11:02

Positive news flow is vital if the company is to maintain shareholder confidence (which to be frank is is tatters). If the company expects to go to the bond/equity markets for some of its capital budget deficit then they could do with a lesson is corporate PR. The quarterly update is due out at the end of this month (and yes I expect an update) and this HAS to include something solid regarding TorP to cheer up the market, which was hinted at in the podcast last week. If completion of the stage two funding has been pushed back to Q1 2019 then that's an awful long time to expect the market to recover from its hangover with out a remedy and a remedy is essential to send the share price north and to ensure a successful rights issue.Sadly we now have 5mths from now until Stg2 finance completion and it's going to get a bit draughty for the share price without positive news flow.

[datait] 10/9/2018 10:58

all market makers moving up.

[dr darkstar] 10/9/2018 10:56

This is a SETS stock so would you care to explain the role of MMs in the decline???

[datait] 10/9/2018 10:44

market makers tac ticks suck hold on tight folks moving back up soon.

[dp1umb] 10/9/2018 10:25

Bothdavis is the £600 uplift in projected costs a positive then?
Iam absolutely sure if the company announced a doubling in cost and a further 3 year delay JOHNBOY would still be predicting 60p by the year end.

[dp1umb] 10/9/2018 10:18

20p / 32p I cant see it testing 38p again in the next 6 to 12 months I feel the next round of funding is going to be painful.

[deanroberthunt] 10/9/2018 10:18

tell me why

[bothdavis] 10/9/2018 10:17

deanroberthunt.....do you own shares in this company?

If you do - Why so negative?

If you don't - Why so negative? & Why are you here?

[ppvn] 10/9/2018 10:12

I have been scratching my head as to what this "new normal" could be but I suppose I am still stuck in the past then. The project still looks exceptionally attractive to me.

Lower volume today than on Friday, and still good support at 25p. Explained why on Friday. Can't pretend that the current price is pleasing me but there you go! Rather than being an attack on the SP, I think personally that the short sellers will be the ones currently protecting our share price from further declines. Will find out again at close.

Is anyone actually able to elaborate on what this new normal is?

[deanroberthunt] 10/9/2018 10:12

this'll be under 5p/share by the time they mine an ounce, that's being optimistic

[davethehorse] 10/9/2018 10:11

Shorters in big style this morning it seems

[davethehorse] 10/9/2018 10:10

Please fasten your seats belts we are in for a very turbulent ride folks.....

[deanroberthunt] 10/9/2018 10:08

and that's being optimistic

[deanroberthunt] 10/9/2018 10:07

this won't mine an ounce till 2023 an will cost £10bn+

[deanroberthunt] 10/9/2018 10:07

all major UK projects end up massively late and overspent....

[dp1umb] 10/9/2018 10:05

Organised attack on share price !! No it’s called a re rating.

[datait] 10/9/2018 10:01

Rated now a BUY get in there.

[decentprofits] 10/9/2018 10:01

Very obvious organized attack on share price from shorters.