Renewi Takeover Rumours (RWI)

"This will go through before Xmas imo" Depending on what 'go through' means this statement is completely wrong. There is absolutely no chance a takeover can be completed by Xmas 2024. If a bid comes (fingers crossed) then it will be a scheme of arrangement which needs a document then a vote. What I'd like for Christmas is no extension to the PUSU deadline which may be what con90210 meant by 'go through'. However even that may be hopeful. You just have to look at EQLS to see how PUSU deadlines can be continually extended. (Put up or shut up). I am pencilling in possibly receiving the bid proceeds in April 2025.

MFH. There is some execution risk here , Mac might see something they don’t like and walk away, think the Wood Group with Apollo. Also depending on the takeover timeline there are financing costs until the cash is paid to consider, that is what the arbs will focus on if a firm offer is made.

A bid will never come in when the company is trading at 700/600p as the premium would be too small(given they rejected 50% uplift). So that takeover premium is slowly disappearing from the share price and its now trading at its fundamentals which are ok but not great. I would argue that the business is in much better, more focused shape. Just need economic activity to pick up in terms of higher volumes. Takeover. Like Wood Group (!) they will be given a chance to prove themselves, if not a buyer will be back. There are few of these listed ESG (compliant) assets around.

I've trimmed 80% of my position prior to RWI joining the 250 in the summer. Unfortunately the reality of the situation is that the company has a lot of issues to sort out and not much has changed since when the stock was trading sub 500 prior to the bid(apart from disposing of the UK operations with a small impairment to carry). A bid will never come in when the company is trading at 700/600p as the premium would be too small(given they rejected 50% uplift). So that takeover premium is slowly disappearing from the share price and its now trading at its fundamentals which are ok but not great. Unfortunately with all going on in the world the ESG hype is subsiding so it would be a long slog I suspect.