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CBG Close Brothers Group Plc

219.00
4.00 (1.86%)
Last Updated: 08:47:55
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Close Brothers Group Plc LSE:CBG London Ordinary Share GB0007668071 ORD 25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  4.00 1.86% 219.00 212,575 08:47:55
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
218.80 219.80 219.00 210.00 210.00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Asset - Backed Securities 1.03B 100.4M - - 323.55M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
08:48:15 O 3,099 219.40 GBX

Close Brothers (CBG) Latest News (14)

Close Brothers (CBG) Discussions and Chat

Close Brothers Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
21/11/202408:25CBG...A Banking Stock..........worth its weight in gold!!!!!!!1,810
03/9/202418:49Is Close Brother Up for a big rise18
15/3/202215:06Close Brothers151
11/4/200810:06A 'BLUE' BANK319
07/3/200809:41Winterflood Securities = Hidden Jewel224

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Close Brothers (CBG) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
08:48:15219.403,0996,799.21O
08:47:50219.005611,228.59AT
08:47:50219.005611,228.59AT
08:47:50219.007781,703.82AT
08:47:48218.601,2002,623.20AT

Close Brothers (CBG) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 20/11/2024 08:20 by Close Brothers Daily Update
Close Brothers Group Plc is listed in the Asset - Backed Securities sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CBG. The last closing price for Close Brothers was 215p.
Close Brothers currently has 150,487,543 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Close Brothers is -.
This morning CBG shares opened at 210p
Posted at 19/11/2024 16:44 by karv1
CbG V vanq both have great risk. Both have over 400k of motor customers/ CBG with probably a lot more.

CBG could be hit by the FCA review and commissions but at least it actually makes money worst case might not have enough money, value 300m could drop more. but people could make huge returns.

Vanq is a loss making company even in the last quarter with the 60 million cost saving for this year.

Value 100m could go down more but the 100m value will pull a lot gamblers in. If they can turn it around there could be good returns. Depending on the commission situation, there interest is sky high so I bet they pay very high commission to dealers/broker to get those customers on sky high interest.

Both CBG/VANQ hold a few hundred million in intangible assets/worthless but CBG actually hold more real money and at least it has banked 400m.
I have been in both currently in neither. I am watching both though.
Posted at 10/11/2024 08:27 by berny3
My view is watch the institutional holders. Aberdeen hold 10% of the company that is quite a bath they are taking. I note in another o their UK funds they hold AstraZeneca as third largest holding that would have also taken a bath (not as bad as Close though). There is likely pressure being placed upon the share price with a high-level of shorting forcing the hands of fund managers going into Christmas/end of year performance. It will be tough on those long holders desks!! Therefore ignoring the very loud noise the share price is likely to be being overly depressed by market activity. Therefore it is a speculative punt based on the assumption the sell pressure will be released at some stage. The bounce back will be swift and large if that is the case. Therefore if you feel there is value here in excess of market cap then it is a buy.
Posted at 08/11/2024 22:51 by pj84
Well if you are looking for a more positive post.

I will start by saying the share price is likely to remain depressed until there is anymore clarity on the eventual outcome from the Hopcroft case.

Having said that the latest adjusted eps was 76p share and that would normally support an undemanding of market cap of about £8 (a PE of just over 10) which is roughly where the share price was before the main slide started with the motor finance review. Not too long before that it was even higher at around £10/share.

The market cap with a share price of £8 was around £1.2 bn and it has dropped £900m since then to a current market cap of just over £300m.

RBC's previous worst case scenario (not their base case scenario) was £420m and if the Hopcroft judgement widens the exposure their new worst case scenario is £640m.



So arguably a drop of £900m already in the market cap more than reflects that worst case scenario.

CBG has suspended the dividend to bolster it's capital and at the moment it is fairly certain that will continue next year and until this whole situation is both clarified and dealt with.

Whatever the outcome it is unlikely it will all be dealt with in a single one off write off and is likely to remain uncertain for some time which should allow CBG more time to continue to bolster its capital position.

If, however, there is a clear need to write of £640m next year and that a draws a line under the issue then CBG might need to raise capital but once it is dealt with what would the new share price be once the adjusted eps is again around 76p without any further write offs?

The above is based on the current worse case scenario but whilst it looks unlikely what would the situation look like if any of the appeals are successful.

As I say the share price is likely to remain depressed for the time being but I don't subscribe to the view that this is curtains for CBG.
Posted at 01/11/2024 13:33 by live ink
Gentlemen,

This share price looks all wrong to me. TNAV is probably well in excess of 1300p as against a current share price of 235p. There is no suggestion that the management are incompetent - indeed far from it. Surely, CBG will come through all this even if it takes a loss of £500m as a result of this Court decision. If so, 235p will still look very cheap.

Live Ink
Posted at 14/10/2024 14:38 by stoopid
So, you are saying that CBG has an EPS of approx 55p of which you have deducted an arbitrary 20p for the sale of CBAM/Winterflood. They only made 16m in profits last year if my memory serves me, so I fail to see how you get a 20p reduction in EPS. The fact still remains you are using last year's figure which was also hit by a 100m paper writedown for Novitas.This is 76.1p which gives a PE of 4.79 at current share price. This is also distorted by extra costs due to the FCA investigation and various other factors. EPS for 2021 and 2022 was 140.4 and 115.5.The loan book is high quality and margins are around 7%NAV - attributable to shareholders in July 2024 was £1.84 Bln pounds which with 150m shares in circulation suggests a value of approx £12.2 per share. This is without the money from the sale of CBAM.It's also without any liabilities from the FCA enquiry, say on the high side 500m. Still suggests a NAV of anywhere between 1.2Bln and 1.6Bln once the extra 200m from the sale of CBAM is taken in suggesting a share price on NAV alone of 7 to 10 quid a share. On top of this you have a bank With high quality assets making from 100m to 250m a year profit and revenues of almost 1bln a year? And you reckon 500m isn't undervalued?? Lol?
Posted at 06/10/2024 12:06 by stoopid
Karv, I'm with you, I reckon maybe 500m at worst, between 150m and 400m is market/broker consensus. At the end of the day, the FCA doesn't want to bankrupt anyone. Just get a free payout for idiots that took out car loans at exorbitant APRs. Even with 400m write off, CBG are worth double the current share price.If they do rebase the divi, even half of the most recent divi is 30p+ per share, so, not too shabby, a yield of about 7%/8%For me, this is still an 800+ share, though it may take 12/24 months to get back there depending on the FCA findings. And people are forgetting that I believe it was Royal London Asset management that bought approx 8 million shares or 5.3% of CBG on the 19/02/2024.So, i would have more trust in their team to have run the slide rule over this than residents of this board posting of catastrophic losses. Saying that, there is a chance it could be worse than expected for CBG, the findings could be terrible and catastrophic for the share price, requiring a deep rights issue to save them. As I said before, Pays your money, Takes your chances....
Posted at 03/10/2024 11:17 by popit
The fall in share price here is beginning to look a bit absurd now

The most likely estimates for the final FCA liability according to analysts and for the expected CBG share price :

0-£150 million FCA liability
40% probability
Expected share price £8+

150 - £300 million FCA liability
40% probability
Expected share price £7+

300 - £450 million FCA liability
15% probability
Expected share price £6+

450 - £600 million FCA liability
4% probability
Expected share price £5+

over £600 million FCA liability
1% probability
Expected share price £4+

So the current share price seems to be pricing in by far the most pessimistic outcome

I think the final liability will be about £150 million and so I would expect a share price of over £8 after the FCA gives their decision
Posted at 25/9/2024 19:47 by pj84
"Update: Close Brothers

The Financial Conduct Authority’s investigation into discretionary commission arrangements (DCA) in the car financing market continues to cast a huge cloud over the share price of merchant bank Close Brothers.

Last week’s sale of the asset management business is not pleasing everyone thanks to the lower-than-expected price tag.

It is going to be a long haul back for the share price and thus this column, especially as no dividends are currently forthcoming, but the balance sheet and valuation both argue against any decision to cut and run (as does the book loss that would accrue).

The disposal boosts Close Brothers’ common equity tier 1 (CET) ratio while the £750m stock market value compares to tangible net assets of more than £1.5bn, so that 50pc-plus discount already prices in a very negative outcome from the regulatory investigation.

Questor says: hold"

I am hoping that Barclays application for judicial review is successful and mitigates the scope of the FCA's(delayed) investigation but if not I am hopeful as pointed out above that the share price more than discounts any settlement.
Posted at 21/9/2024 02:00 by popit
chris

RBC is by far the most pessimistic broker about the possible motor liability for CBG and they have a Target Price for CBG shares of £6.20

So the upside for CBG shares is significant even according to the most pessimistic RBC forecast of a total liability of £350 million

Most other brokers and analysts have a total liability for CBG of somewhere between £100 million and £200 million and CBG have already set aside far more than this by strengthening their capital by over £400 million

Remember the dividend that was not paid for 2024 saved £100 million for CBG and if CBG do the same again for 2025 then the £200 million saved can be expected to cover almost every liability that has been forecast by analysts

The shares have also already fallen by over £600 million since the FCA news and so many would say that the CBG share price has already fallen by about twice the most pessimistic forecast liability of £350 million from RBC

The early share price reaction to the good results on Thursday was to rise to £5.50 as the eps of 76p would suggest that a dividend of about 40p will be easily affordable in 2026 at the latest and perhaps also in 2025

The selling that then took the shares below £5 did not seem to have any rational reason behind it

The results were good and the outlook was good and the sale of CBAM for £200 million will also make the balance sheet even stronger going forward and CBAM was also not a very significant contribution to CBG profits anyway

So if even the most pessimistic broker RBC sees a significant upside of £6.20 for the CBG share price with a total motor liability of £350 million, then the lower and the average expected liability of somewhere between £100 million and £200 million will probably see a share price for CBG significantly higher than £6.20
Posted at 29/8/2024 10:11 by thebutler
It is very likely the 67.5p dividend will eventually be restored, whether that is in a year or in 2 years.

So if you have the patience and don't need the dividend for a couple of years, buying CBG shares now is effectively investing in a 13% dividend on restoration.

Traders influencing the current share price are only interested in short to medium term wheeling and dealing so I reckon jump in there whilst the share price is so cheap.
Close Brothers share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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