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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Empyrean Energy Plc LSE:EME London Ordinary Share GB00B09G2351 ORD 0.2P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.15 -2.31% 6.35 511,987 09:12:13
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
6.20 6.50 6.50 6.35 6.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.11 0.02 264.2 30
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
15:15:52 O 10,000 6.20 GBX

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DateSubject
04/7/2020
09:20
Empyrean Energy Daily Update: Empyrean Energy Plc is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker EME. The last closing price for Empyrean Energy was 6.50p.
Empyrean Energy Plc has a 4 week average price of 4.80p and a 12 week average price of 3.10p.
The 1 year high share price is 10.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 2.88p.
There are currently 471,197,281 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 338,777 shares. The market capitalisation of Empyrean Energy Plc is £29,921,027.34.
09/6/2020
16:29
grannyboy: It's just about making a wish, so if you want the share price to achieve £25 you just close your eyes and whisper to yourself "I want the share price to be £25" , and magically it will happen.. But you must NOT divulge to anyone your wish, otherwise it won't come true. Hope that helps?!!
09/6/2020
09:06
jemjem: Empyrean Energy Plc Transformational Potential Empyrean has announced a 12-month extension to the first phase of its Block 29/11 PSC, offshore China, until 12 June 2022. The extension provides Empyrean with a significant amount of flexibility in the funding, planning and drilling of its committed exploration well. However, the Company remains committed to safely drilling its first well as soon as possible. We believe an initial exploration well will target either the Jade or Topaz prospects, with a commercial discovery proving potentially transformational for Empyrean. Using a highly conservative c90% risking we value the mean estimated recoverable volumes across the Jade and Topaz prospects at 11p and 19p respectively, unrisked our valuation increases to 127p and 236p, respectively. We update our Company valuation and our target share price to 34p (from 19p), a 593% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.  At a Significant Discount – We update our valuation of Empyrean’s Chinese prospects, increasing our valuation of the risked mean recoverable resources at Jade and Topaz to 11p and 19p, respectively. In the P10 upside case, our valuation increases to 24p for Jade and 28p for Topaz. Unrisked, our valuation of the mean recoverable resources at Jade has increased to 127p, further increasing to 272p in the P10 upside case. Similarly, our unrisked valuation of the mean recoverable resources at Topaz has increased to 236p, further increasing to 360p in the P10 upside case. In updating our valuation we have increased the geological chance of success across the Jade and Topaz prospects to 37% (from 32%) and 35% (from 30%) respectively following the results of the recent seismic inversion project which has further derisked both prospects. Following further analysis of oil recovery factors within the Pearl River Mouth Basin, we have increased the recovery factor of the Jade prospect to 50% (from 40%). Our analysis has shown that fields within the Pearl River Mouth Basin have strong aquifer support with the potential to have oil recovery rates of over 70%. Additionally, as we move closer to the drilling of an initial exploration well, we reduce the discount factor across Empyrean’s Chinese portfolio to 12% (from 15%).  De-Risking and Flexibility – Owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and resultant global lockdown, Empyrean has applied for and been granted a 12-month extension to the first phase of Block 29/11 contract to the 29 June 2022. The extension substantially de-risks the planning and drilling of the first exploration well, without having to invoke any force majeure contract clause. Despite the extension, Empyrean remains committed to safely drilling its first well as soon as practicable. To avoid the typhoon season (and to operate the well as safely as possible) we would expect an initial exploration well to spud between November and May.  A Special Relationship – The 12-month extension of the Block 29/11 contract is a further example of the excellent relationship between Empyrean and CNOOC. This collaboration has seen Empyrean shoot 28km2 of 3D seismic data (as part of a much wider 580km2 seismic acquisition) over the CNOOC LH-23-1-1d oil discovery, helping Empyrean to “tie-in” its existing seismic to an existing discovery, derisking the prospectivity whilst also improving the Company’s understanding of the geology of the basin. Further evidence of this co-operation saw CNOOC providing authorisation for Empyrean to independently analyse CNOOC’s 3D seismic data over four large oil discoveries to the west of Block 29/11. The result confirmed the presence of well-defined gas clouds over the CNOOC discoveries in addition to the presence of well-defined gas clouds in the overburden of the Jade and Topaz structures, significantly mitigating the exploration risk on these prospects. We believe the strong relationship between Empyrean and CNOOC to be a major positive for Empyrean, which inturn has significantly de-risked the prospectivity in Block 29/11.  De-Risked and Drill Ready – Through comprehensive geological analysis, Empyrean has been able to comprehensively de-risk the Block 29/11 prospects to being drill-ready. This analysis has revealed the presence of well-defined oil migration pathways to the Jade and Topaz prospects from two established hydrocarbon kitchens, with 3D seismic data acquired over the 2013 CNOOC LH 23-1-1d discovery located 8km to the west, confirming potential “fill and spill” pathways. As the name suggests, a “fill and spill” model “fills” the closest trap to the source kitchen before “spilling̶1; and migrating updip to the next trap and so on. It is worth noting that all of the CNOOC fields (with the exception of one) located towards the southwest of Block 29/11 and along the migration pathway are full to spill (the one exception being 90% full). Furthermore, 3D seismic data has confirmed the presence of gas clouds in the overburden of the Jade and Topaz prospects, similar to four large oil discoveries to the west of Block 29/11. Recently, analysis of seismic inversion data over the Jade and Topaz structures has validated the interpreted presence of excellent quality carbonate reservoirs, with porosities between 20-30%. To “tie-in” the data, CNOOC provided access to the log data of the LH-23- 1-1d well, providing further evidence of the excellent relationship between Empyrean andCNOOC.  Negotiating from a Position of Strength – In addition to the obvious benefits around the planning and drilling of an initial exploration well in Block 29/11, the 12-month extension also provides greater financial flexibility for Empyrean. To fund an initial exploration well on Block 29/11, Empyrean has a number of funding options available to it. This includes the potential farm-down of Empyrean’s 100% working interest in Block 29/11 in exchange for a carry. Whilst the M&A market is currently subdued as a result of decline in oil prices, we expect activity to increase as oil prices recover. The majors and supermajors need to replace production with new reserves, with the measure of a company’s ability to replace production known as the reserve replacement ratio. Since, the downturn in 2014, investment in exploration and exploration success has reduced substantially, resulting in significantly reduced reserve replacement ratios amongst the industry’s blue-chip companies. Further capex cuts in 2020 as a result of COVID-19, will only emphasise this issue, with only a limited number of projects globally providing the scale of resource needed to “move the needle”. We would argue, that with a combined 884mmbbls of oil in place and located in a proven oil basin, Block 29/11 would be one such project. Valuation We update our valuation of Block 29/11 making the following changes:  Increasing the geological chance of success of the Jade and Topaz prospects to 37% and 35% respectively (from 32% and 30%). The increase comes as result of the extensive geological work conducted by Empyrean since the issue of the Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) CPR in November 2018, which has further derisked the prospects.  Increased the Jade recovery factor from 40% to 50%. Oil fields in the Pearl River Mouth Basin, and in particular the four-way dip closures (such as Jade) have strong aquifer support, negating the need for secondary enhanced oil recovery (eg water flooding). The result is oil recoveries between 30-70%, with the Lufeng field in particular having a recovery factor of over 70%. We leave our recovery factor of the three-way dip closed Topaz prospect at 40%. To ascertain the potential mean recoverable resources for the Jade and Topaz prospects, we multiply our recovery factor by the GCA oil in place volumes.  Decreasing the discount rate on our models for the Jade, Topaz and Pearl prospects to 12% from 15% in lieu of the reduced proximity to drilling.  Update our models to the latest Brent forward curve (2020: US$40.2/bbl, 2021: US$43.2/bbl). The result is a 254% increase to our risked valuation of the Jade prospect to 11p (from 3p) and a 50% increase to our risked valuation of the Topaz prospect to 19p (from 12p). We increase our Empyrean valuation by 78% to 34p (from 19p) and set our price target in line with our NAV at 34p, reiterating our BUY recommendatio
09/6/2020
07:38
jemjem: Headlines of new Cenkos note just out.Empyrean has announced a 12-month extension to the first phase of its Block 29/11 PSC, offshore China, until 12 June 2022. The extension provides Empyrean with a significant amount of flexibility in the funding, planning and drilling of its committed exploration well. However, the Company remains committed to safely drilling its first well as soon as possible. We believe an initial exploration well will target either the Jade or Topaz prospects, with a commercial discovery proving potentially transformational for Empyrean. Using a highly conservative c90% risking we value the mean estimated recoverable volumes across the Jade and Topaz prospects at 11p and 19p respectively, unrisked our valuation increases to 127p and 236p, respectively. We update our Company valuation and our target share price to 34p (from 19p), a 593% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
05/6/2020
16:15
michaelhfrancis: In the present uncertian times it would be wise to bring in a partner for the first drill in China and get them to fund the project for a percentage, pay a dividend from the succesfull drilling in MAKO that way shareholders would receive a benefit they deserve. A bird in the hand comes to mind If China is as good as EME are saying they should have no problem remember they still have the two use the drill bit to prove the case NOTE drilling equipment is lying up in docks all over the world awaiting some one like EME to hire and put to work. I can see no reason why EME could not be drilling in the south china sea inside the next 3 months and the share price reflecting same. DYOR
28/5/2020
16:29
thetoonarmy2: Cenkos as House Broker has been holding EME price back all day now that we have complained they have gone on the offer @5p FOR WAIT for it 1,000 shares bloody comical Singers offering 25k @ 4.9p. Cenkos doing a great job once again they make nothing out of these "broker notes" but they get money from instis or people who buy in, well after the placing debacle recently makes you think, why they have been sitting on the price, think this is due a write up in Private Eye. We need to go on the SETS Board stops MMs messing about with the price to suit themselves.
17/4/2020
11:47
starzerus: Hi Guys I have done my best with this but cannot paste any tables into the report. Empyrean Energy Plc Subscription and Resource Upgrade. Following the success of the Mako appraisal programme in Q4/19, Empyrean has announced an updated internal 2C resource estimate of 493Bcf, a substantial 79% increase. The presence of a thicker and better quality reservoir, with a gas water contact 5ft deeper than previously assumed also has a positive impact on potential development scenario’s, with up to a 150MMscf/d plateau production rate now being modelled. Separately, Empyrean has also announced that it has raised £410,950 via a subscription through existing investors and directors, with the proceeds to be used to satisfy its share of the final costs in relation to the drilling of the successful Tambak-1 and Tambak-2 appraisal wells, including post drilling resource updates and to provide sufficient working capital to the end of May 2020. At 3.8p, the current share price is below Empyrean’s share price for the whole of 2018 and 2019; during which time the Company has successfully drilled two appraisal wells offshore Indonesia, confirming the presence of one continuous, high quality gas reservoir with a mid-case contingent gas resource of 493Bcf, whilst also continuing to de-risk the potentially transformational prospects in Block 29/11, offshore China with a combined mean STOIIP of 884mmbbls. We update our valuation and price target to 19.3p following the recent decline in the commodity prices, reiterating our BUY recommendation. An Outstanding Resource Upgrade –Following a successful appraisal drilling programme in Q4/19 at the Mako field, in which Empyrean and its partners confirmed the presence of a thicker and better quality reservoir, Empyrean has announced a 70-79% increase in the field’s contingent resources. The 1C low case resource estimate has increased by 76% to 323Bcf (27.5Bcf net), with the 2C mid case scenario increasing 79% to 493Bcf (41.9Bcf net). At 493Bcf, the mid-case 2C estimate makes the Mako field the third largest gas resource and the largest undeveloped discovery in the prolific West Natuna Basin. The 3C upside case has increased by 70% to a massive 666Bcf (56.6Bcf net). In conjunction with the resource upgrade, the thicker and better quality reservoir, together with a deeper gas water contact has had a positive impact on potential development scenarios, with up to a 150MMscf/d plateau production rate now being modelled. In our base case valuation (using the 493Bcf 2C mid case scenario and a US$6/mcf gas price), we value the Mako field at US$18.3m or 3.2p/share (risked). A key sensitivity is the gas price, with a US$2/mcf rise, increasing our valuation to US$32.4m or 5.7p /share. Near-term Funding –Empyrean has announced it has raised £410,950 via a direct subscription. The proceeds will be used to satisfy its share of final costs in relation to the successful Mako Q4/19 appraisal campaign, including post drilling resource updates and provide sufficient working capital through to the end of May. Beyond this, further funding could come via the £10m equity placement facility with Long State Investment Limited, with the timing and minimum pricing at Empyrean’s discretion, minimising unnecessary dilution for existing shareholders. The proceeds will provide sufficient working capital and ensure greater financial flexibility as the Company seeks to realise a portion of the value created in its diverse asset base, including the divestment of all or part of the Company’s interest in the Duyung PSC and/or the farm-out of Block 29/11 offshore China. Prior to the current downturn, the last time Empyrean traded at 3.5p was in June 2017. Since then Empyrean has successfully drilled three Mako appraisal wells, de-risking c500Bcf of 2C resource, adding significant value in the process, whilst also continuing to de-risk three potentially transformational prospects offshore China, containing 884mbbls of aggregate mean STOIIP. Long-term Funding –Unlike many of its exploration and appraisal focussed peers, Empyrean has a number of options to fund its long term capital requirements (namely its commitment well in Block 29/11), including the sale of part or all of the Company’s interest in the Duyung PSC, which we currently value at US$18.3m (risked), using a US$6/mcf gas price, the £10m equity placement facility with Long State Investment and the farm-out of Block 29/11, offshore China. A Low Burn Rate a and Aligned Board –We believe Empyrean has one of the lowest burn rates of its exploration focussed peers, with a total G&A expense of US$1.0m in FY19, approximately 70-50% lower than its peer group. As such, we believe Empyrean is much better positioned to survive a prolonged down-turn and the low oil price environment, withEmpyrean announcing that it has a total funding requirement of c£1.58m to cover G&A and working capital through to the end of April 2021 (excluding the costs associated with the drilling of the 29/11 commitment well). Importantly, CEO, Thomas Kelly has one of the biggest holdings of any CEO on the AIM market, holding 19.3% of the Company’s issued share capital. As a result, his interests are keenly aligned with those of Empyrean’s shareholders. It’s not just the CEO whose interests are aligned with shareholders, as part of the recent subscription, all of the directors of the Company subscribed for a combined total of c2.4m shares. Transformational Potential in a Proven Basin – Block 29/11 sits in the Pearl River Mouth Basin, situated in the South China Sea. The basin plays an important role is China’s oil and gas supply, with total recoverable reserves c4.5bn boe. As a result, well and seismic information is extensive, with Empyrean allowed to analyse existing CNOOC discoveries, comprehensively de-risking three potentially transformational prospects. An independent audit of the oil in place across the three prospects suggests that they could contain a Pmean oil in place volume of 884mmbbls, with a P10 upside case of c1.6bnbbls. Discoveries of this magnitude would be sizeable for the majors, let alone a Company of Empyrean’s size. We currently value the two largest prospects, Jade and Topaz at 3.1p and 11.9p respectively. California Dreaming – Owing to COVID-19 travel restrictions, Empyrean and its partners have delayed the drilling of the Borba exploration well, onshore California until normality returns. Borba will target 16 stacked seismic anomalies between 700-2,800m. As we have seen right across the industry, travel restrictions imposed following the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with reduced capex budgets have significantly curtailed drilling activity. Once normality returns, Borba is drill ready, with all the necessary permits in place. The delay has little impact on our valuation as we value the Borba prospect at US$0.2m or 0.03p per share. Valuation – We have updated our model incorporating the latest forward oil and gas price curves. Our forward Brent price deck is 2020: US$36.2/bbl, 2021: US$40.2/bbl, 2022: US$43.5/bbl, with a long term Brent price of US$52.2/bbl. We have adjusted our Mako model, updating our long term gas price valuation to US$6/mcf (from US$8/mcf), but note that this will need updating following the signing of a gas sales agreement. Our base valuation at Mako utilises the updated 2C mid-case number of 493Bcf. We set our target price at 19p (in line with our Core NAV), a 400% premium to the current share price and reiterate our BUY recommendation. Valuation - We have updated our model incorporating the latest oil and gas forward price curves, this has resulted in a c38% decrease to our 2020 Brent oil price assumption, to US$36.2/bbl. Our long term oil price is US$52.2/bbl, but note that this will need to be reviewed on a regular basis to incorporate the current commodity price volatility. In Indonesia, we have reduced our long term gas price to US$6/mcf (from US$8/mcf) as a result of the worldwide reduction in gas prices, brought about the current oversupply of LNG. We note that this assumption will change following the signing of a gas sales agreement. We have also updated the 2C resources at Mako to 493Bcf. Amongst the Company’s discovered resources, we value Empyrean’s 8.5% interest in the Mako field at US$18.3m, risked, increasing to US$26.2m (unrisked). Elsewhere, amongst the Company’s exploration portfolio we model the greatest value coming from the Topaz and Jade prospects, which we risk at 11.9p/share and 3.1p/share respectively. Unrisked, these valuations increase to 125.6p/share and 32.7p/share, underlying Block 29/11’s potentially transformational impact. We value Empyrean’s entire portfolio at 19.3p/share or US$110.4m on a risked adjusted basis, a 400% premium to the current share price. We set our target price in-line with our RENAV at 19.3p/share. Assets Indonesia Empyrean has an 8.5% working interest in the Duyung PSC, situated in the West Natuna Basin, offshore Indonesia. Situated within the Duyung PSC is in the Mako gas field, a giant 350km2shallow structural closure. Since farming into the PSC in Q2/17, Empyrean and its partners have successfully appraised the Mako field via three wells, with the Q4/19 drilling campaign demonstrating the presence of one simple, excellent quality, single gas tank. As a result of the successful drilling campaign, Empyrean has announced a significant resource upgrade at Mako, increasing 2C contingent resources by 70% to 493Bcf As well as substantially increasing the contingent resources at Mako, the presence of a thicker and better quality reservoir, with a gas water contact 5ft deeper than previously assumed has resulted in a positive impact on potential development scenarios, with up to a 150MMscf/d plateau production rate now being modelled.The field is optimally located 16km from the nearest tie-in to the open access West Natuna Transportation System (WNTS). A Plan of Development has been approved for the Mako gas field, securing tenure over the asset until 2037. As part of the Plan of Development, the partners reached a head of agreement for the sale of all Mako gas to a regional utility company, with the final terms and pricing to be contained within a Gas Sales Agreement.Following the success of the recent appraisal campaign we have updated our valuation, using the updated 493Bcf of mid-case 2C resource value. At a gas price of US$6/mcf (the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) price averaged US$7.3/mcf in 2018 and US$5.3/mcf in 2019) we value Empyrean’s 8.5% working interest at US$18.3m (risked) or US$26.2m (unrisked). A key sensitivity to our valuation is the gas price, at US$8/mcf our valuation increases to US$32.4m (risked), US$46.3m Unrisked. Whilst LNG spot prices are currently at record low levels, gas from Mako will be sold under a long term gas sales contract, with the long-term, reliable gas supply demanding a premium price to LNG spot cargoes. It is also worth noting that the current LNG forward curve see’s LNG prices increasing to above US$5/mcf from November 2021, c12 months before we estimate Mako will come onstream. Empyrean has a 100% working interest in Block 29/11, offshore China. Extensive geological work over the past few years have derisked three prospects with an aggregate total mean oil-in -place of 884mmbbls. We expect an initial commitment well will target the Jade prospect, containing an estimated gross mean original oil in place of 225mmboe. The Jade prospect is a four way dip closed carbonate build-up, encased in marine shale. Several oil discoveries, proximal to Block 29/11 have demonstrated a proven world class oil source rock within the basin, with Jade located up-dip of the existing oil discoveries. 3D seismic data over Jade has indicated the presence of a gas cloud in the overburden, similar to the nearby oil discoveries. Seismic inversion work over Jade and Topaz will be completed this month, with this work anticipated to be the final pre-drill technical work. Whilst Empyrean is still working towards the drilling taking place between December 2020 and May 2021 (to avoid Typhoon season), these dates may need to be revised as a result of the uncertainty around COVID-19. As part of the PSC signed with the Chinese National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC), in December 2018 Empyrean has 2½ years to drill a commitment well to a depth of 2,500m. We estimate that the gross cost of an initial exploration well in China is cUS$17m; however, this value may be reduced following an estimated US$48bn of capex cuts in 2020 as a result of the low oil price, leading to greater rig availability. Empyrean has plenty of options in order to fund an initial exploration well in Block 29/11 including divesting part or all of its 8.5% interest in the Duyung PSC, the farm down of Block 29/11 in exchange for a carry/partial carry and the £10m Long State Investments equity facility. Valuing prospective resources is inherently an approximate science; however, using a conservative long term oil price of US$52/bbl and a conservative recovery factor of 40% (the average within the Pearl River Mouth basin is c50%), we value the Topaz, Jade and Pearl prospects at 3.1p, 11.9p and 0.6p respectively on a risked basis. California Empyrean has a 24% interest in the proposed Borba exploration well, onshore California. Borba is a follow-on well from the Dempsey 1-15 well, drilled in 2017. Dempsey encountered numerous gas-bearing zones before entering production at a rate of 1,300mcf/d in July 2018. Unfortunately, this flow rate was not sustainable long term due to a relatively tight and poor quality reservoir, with subsequent water ingress resulting in the well being shut-in . The data collected from the Dempsey 1-15 well has subsequently been integrated with the 3D seismic over the wider Dempsey trend to identify those areas with potentially better quality reservoir development. This analysis highlighted the Borba prospect, situated in an optimal location to test for potential channel fill sand reservoirs across sixteen stacked seismic anomalies. These sixteen stacked targets are situated within a 2,100m prospective interval between 700m and 2,800m depth, with a much greater conformance than Dempsey 1-15. Borba is expected to have high initial reservoir pressures, which when combined with the interpreted reservoir quality could result in high gas flow rates. Situated less than two miles from the nearest pipeline, monetisation of a discovery would be relatively quick and cost efficient. The Borba prospect is drill ready, with all the necessary approvals and permits in place Whilst US natural gas production has grown rapidly in recent years as a result of the US shale boom, the shale boom has largely bypassed California as a result of difficult geology and environmental opposition. In 2018, California only produced c4Bcf of shale gas, with c95% of supply imported via pipeline. The added cost associated with importing gas from the surrounding states means that California gas trades at a premium to Henry Hub. In January 2020, the average California Natural Gas Citygate price was US$3.32/mcf, an 80% premium to Henry Hub.
22/3/2020
00:53
abergele: Bought more at my lowest price ever 3.12 p while in Malta before I had to take the last plane out with Easyjet,Scarry ,a call at 9 am to say get yourself a flight sir,or you'll grow old here,such a massive financial mess now all over the world. Over the last couple of years whilst I've been over on holidays in Malta after Xmas the share price has lept, and/but I had not sold any as not been in a position to do so, trying to leave the shares nonsense back at home, but with the promises and presumption of a greater share price coming, I decided to put an advanced sell in this year,haaahaaa so not to be left behind this time with my pants down,,ohhh how wrong I could be eh,having a rest without looking, and not knowing of this impending doom of the Coronavirus.boy oh boy how wrong could I get it. A time when WEY and EME were evenly balanced at 10,p,I had the notion to swap out of Eme for Wey. But I did'nt,boy how wrong a decision could one make eh..gla lth's. Now Isolated in Abergele as you may have guessed.gla ,JJ, Sparrow ,and Stewart, and many more, too many more to mention.
20/2/2020
08:55
coiin stein: Very quiet thread these days. As the share price inevitably drips down to 6.4 ... there are a couple of points to remember that should put things into perspective. Everyone is still in profit and has done really well out of EME (we're told this relentlessly, so must be true) A lower share price presents a superb top up opportunity
04/10/2019
07:40
mike the golfer: In their RNS Coro state: Management estimate that in the event of the Tambak-2 well resulting in a successful appraisal of the southern area of the Mako gas field, approximately 100 Bcf of gross contingent resources will be added to the 2C category from the 3C category. What effect do people think this will have on the EME share price if shown to be accurate?
19/11/2018
08:38
kevjames: A time for reflection – where next for EME? Many on here will not like what I am about to say and that is I support Colin’s JAM tomorrow statements, but don't despair - read on. So the first Jam tomorrow statement is likely to be the announcement of the POD for Mako ( by EOY or early Q1) – leading to an appraisal well in Q3 which will not only appraise the current Mako shallows ( which are already classed as a discovery) but will also drill down to explore the deeps. If they prove up will lead to another 3 drill prospects – truly exciting times and transformational if successful -real jam. These assets will then be sold when proved up-IMO. The second jam tomorrow statement will be the announcement of a JV partner for Block 29/11 – due Q1/2 19. It will happen, of that I am sure – GCA independent audit was the last piece of the jigsaw to allow a deal to be brokered. The third Jam tomorrow is the re-entry to Alvares to re-log the gas bearing zones – but that is not likely to Q2 19. None of the above events are immediately cash generative, however a sale of part or all of an asset may lead to cash in the bank, but there are no obvious assets to get rid of at this stage. So given that we have had an excellent independent audit from GCA, and now a small placing at above the current share price (to provide some working capital), where is the downside or upside for the next few months?? The downside is that it may be a few weeks before we get any further news – for the impatient that must surely mean time to sell and move on – this seems the normal modus operandi on AIM for many traders. However, HP was keen to keep referring to BPC (and I note he didn’t respond back to my post about this a few days ago). So to remind everyone, the BPC share price did not really react to the independent STOIIP audit, the news that got in BPC share price spiralling upwards was about signing an exclusive agreement. This agreement was purely to do a technical evaluation of the project area – at this stage, I would like to remind people that EME have 3 drill ready prospects in Block 29/11. Also, the Mako prospect is drill ready. For EME and its partners the next step is to drill, it is not to technically evaluate prospects– a big difference!! The upside? So could EME spiral up on a JV announcement – well, yes – any JV announcement is the equivalent of the "exclusive agreement" news in the BPC cycle, but many times better in my view. If you look at the chart for BPC (linked)- we are at the Dec 17 timepoint. The spike up comes at the time of the exclusive agreement announcement (May 18) – this was further pumped up be the herd as time progressed – so Jam tomorrow. Now, even with my ageing eyes, I see little opportunity in that BPC chart to make money on the downside post the Moyes (expert) STOIIP audit announcement of Dec17. That said, a trader may wish to exit for a few weeks and maybe time it right and get back in before a big rise – this could happen either by inside information or luck. However, most of us mere mortals will just have to guess, gamble or stay long. I will be doing the latter!! IMO, this will re-rate on news of a JV and also probably on POD news – but it is definitely jam tomorrow. So Colin and HP good luck with your strategies, a 6p (or was it 4p placing ) now seems incredulous! I am happy to sit long and wait for my jam because I am certain that I will be making good money in 2019. As the BPC example shows, the price went up around 6 fold without a drill bit getting anywhere near the ground/seabed – could we see a similar pattern for EME??? For an AIM stock –this is very likely, as the herd will arrive again at some point and the trigger points are easy to see. AIMHO and DYOR IMG]http://i67.tinypic.com/auwkdj.png[/IMG]
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