Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[poohbear1] 25/10/2021 10:11

For those who like reading tea leaves, Pantheon seems to have decisively broken out of the recent down channel. From the chart I'm looking at we could be heading to 96p in the short term

[sporazene2] 25/10/2021 09:44

Brent moving ominously towards 2018 resistance of ~$87 resistance and given how long the market is, you'd be hard pressed to argue against a move to $100 pretty quickly after that if it breaks and holds through this level. It will be interesting to see this weeks inventories, especially as the last two have been a bit soft and we are still at $85 Brent.

What a contrast to where we were this time last year and I would be surprised (but not disappointed) if we didnt secure a farm in partner given how much cash producers are now throwing off, in addition to the risk/reward on offer here

[wimborne1] 25/10/2021 09:16

Scott126. Many thanks for taking the time to reply to my question, which was prompted mainly by the milestone of the debt repayment having been reached. Your considered comments are much appreciated and hopefully we will now continue to see a reduced (or even zero) pace of divestment or even an accepted block offer from a committed investor. We've all had plenty of time to take advantage of the Farralon sell-off and so hopefully we'll now see a steady and sustained elevation towards 'fair value'.

[bit coin] 25/10/2021 08:25

Looking perky, news this week.........

[winner66] 25/10/2021 07:28

Scot thank you for the huge weekend efforts . Hope we all have a good week .

[officerdigby] 24/10/2021 23:48

LOL not cancelling shares sold. Cancelling shares still held for cash incoming to CHONS. Might be a TAD late and still fanciful!

[scot126] 24/10/2021 23:19

That's right, OfficerDigby. The agreement between all the parties within CHONS is confidential. I am not a party to that agreement and nor have I had access to the contract.

Yep, it *does* seem fairer for the Alaskan tax credit asset to revert to the GB founders'n'funders group, doesn't it?

Your scenario which sees the GB folk selling the tax credit, giving the money back to Farallon and having the CHONS sales of shares throughout 2021 somehow be nullified would be lovely for the GB folk, but a) I'm not one of them and b) it's a fantasy scenario, I'm afraid. I'm pretty sure the terms of the intra-party contract were pretty clear when it came to the debt repayment schedule once the CHONS shares were released from the 2 year lock in period following the PANR/GB merger in Jan '19.

It's undoubtedly been a tough old road for the GB folk. I'd encourage any GB founders'n'funders who happen to be reading this to attempt to clear their minds and souls of all the emotional baggage of the events of the last decade. I 100% appreciate it'll be difficult to do but, objectively, the asset stands on the cusp of being proven to be one of the largest reservoirs in North American history. Perhaps look to the latest research from Canaccord and WH Ireland, written by analysts who are not wearied by the trials and tribulations of the last decade since GB was formed?

If the original management team, augmented by PANR and eSeis personnel, are proven to be correct in their geological model then you GB people will not only get back your initial investment but you'll also make significant profits. Only individuals within your cohort can decide if "averaging down" via PANR shares is the right thing to do for their personal situations. Best of luck to all the original GB founders'n'funders. GLA

[officerdigby] 24/10/2021 22:35

Ta Scot126.

I think I wasn't paying attention last time.
For any newbies the posts that explained the situation to a degree were 7607 and 7581.

I was most interested in PoohBear's comment as post 7607/7581 the tax credits are now tradable as indicated by 88E new in July? So the CHONS can get some money they lost back. As Poohbear indicated they (GB original SH's) might get that money - Glad for them as Farallon getting that as well leaves a somewhat bad taste - even for one not directly affected. I bet you wish they could just give the money back to Farallon and get some of these shares nullified, alas I guess not!

Also just getting to grips with the debt shares/equity shares aspect to their holding. I imagine the details and any rules are confidential to the concert party.

[scot126] 24/10/2021 18:57

Dear All - latest price for a barrel of Alaska North Slope oil on 21/10/21 was $85.55 v's Brent at $84.61

I'm not sure I properly addressed the queries posed by wimborne1 or OfficerDigby? Understandably they're both interested in Farallon's future intentions. Naturally, only the Farallon fund managers know for sure.

There are some facts we do know. Farallon's initial investment in Great Bear was to buy GB's debt from BoAML. The Farallon desk managing the position is a credit desk, managing a credit fund. Via a long, convoluted route Farallon is a large, but decreasing, shareholder in PANR. At the time of the merger with PANR in January 2019, CHONS owned c.38% of the merged entity. CHONS is now at 16.99% and we know Farallon owns the majority of the remaining holding, but not all of it.

My *guess*? Farallon are self-evidently not idiots. I'd have thought they'll be aware PANR management are working feverishly to ensure the anticipated winter programme is funded. It would not surprise me if we look back on October/November '21 as a time when Farallon quite intentionally took their foot off the pedal (completely or partially) in order to give management as stable an environment as possible within which to secure the most favourable funding deal possible for shareholders. Lol, put it this way, if any of the Farallon fund managers happen to be reading this post, if you haven't already thought about pulling the selling, then you ought to consider doing so immediately!! As detailed in post #18390 above, at the very minimum it looks like Farallon has *already* reduced the pace of share sales. Good stuff.

Do I see a credit fund within Farallon remaining a major shareholder of PANR all the way up to the BoD placing the business up for sale? Hmmm, probably not. Do I see any sign of them rushing for the exit? Nope, not at all. A managed and disciplined sell down over the next year, 18 months? Maybe, who knows?

Here's a forecast I can be a wee bit more definitive about! If both Theta West (drill and flow test) and Talitha-A (flow test) are successful this winter season then Farallon will be bid for their total holding within 48 hours of any such RNS(s).

[chris0805] 24/10/2021 18:07

I've seen no mention of it here, but the Reddit / Discord pages have had a recently posted share register, which shows several other big sellers apart from *F*. Just like us all, those that have sold some / all of their holding will have their own points where they are happy with their gains. It's not just F that affect the share price when selling down their holding. Each to their own, but GLA that continue to hold & well done to those who have taken profits... thss add t is a market after all.

[scot126] 24/10/2021 17:45

Dear All – ok, I'll do my best to address some of the outstanding questions as a result of Friday’s TR-1.

1) Firstly, some facts.

Latest TR-1 was published on 22/10/21.
Total shares now on issue = 696,208,674
Total shares now owned by CHONS = 118,330,855 => 16.99%
Shares sold since last TR-1 (dated 28/9/21) = 6,748,258

Interestingly, it took Farallon 7 business days to sell the previous 1% tranche (15/9/21 – 24/9/21) and 18 business days (24/9/21 – 20/10/21) to sell this latest 1% tranche. There’s been decent enough volume going through the market during those 18 business days so I think it is fair to observe Farallon has adjusted the pace of their selling since 24/9/21, ie. slowed it down.

2) johnswan193, post #18386: I can hardly be one to complain of johnswan193’s pedantry, can I?! That said, it appears johnswan193 needs to head to dictionary corner to examine the definitions of “appears”; and “more likely”. Hardly definitive vocabulary, is it? Especially when placed within the context of my extensive post on the subject, post #18131:

“I posted during the last week that it *appears* to many observers Farallon has, at a minimum, amended their selling instructions. Some have suggested they've stopped selling altogether, others that they've lowered significantly the pace at which they're selling. Either which way, it's most welcome and the timing of the hiatus/slow down/cessation of selling intrigues me. Lol, I bet we get a fresh TR-1 on Monday now that I've said that?!”

The above admitted, I ought to have caveated post #18306 more clearly, as I normally do. I will do so after publishing this post. I reject outright johnswan193’s allegation (contained within his post #18386) that I have suggested on multiple occasions Farallon had stopped selling. Regular readers will recall I deviated from those making such categorical statements by uniformly describing the *pace* of selling v’s historical patterns and I *regularly* warned readers to treat with caution those being more categorical about Farallon having stopped selling altogether. Fact.

johnswan193’s battered and bruised middle office ego clearly still pains him dreadfully. Mature men at ease with themselves don’t generally feel the need to inform hundreds of anonymous avatars that they’ve reached the pinnacle of their chosen career. That’s for their direct peers and competitors to judge, surely? And what damaged soul needs to boast of this achievement to a bunch of made up usernames? Dear oh dear.

3) Prof Sir forwood the Unveiled – there was a sell order of half-decent size on Wednesday (20th) and that order was completed late morning on Thursday (21st). You can clearly see the effect the specific sell order had on the share price over those two business days. I know the identity of the seller but it is not my place to reveal the details. It is my understanding the sell order has been completed in full. The seller was not Farallon, fyi, and was UK-based.

4) I can confirm the description by Otto of the purchaser of 11m PANR shares is correct. Otto described the buyer as an “institutional investor” and that’s a completely accurate statement. Therefore, I am able to reject the suggestion that the buyer was an oil sector corporate. Trust that helps.

5) Farallon/CHONS/GB – a few points

(i) I confirm previous posts which discuss the Alaskan tax credit. I, too, understand the tax credit will revert to GB and associated parties at the dissolution of the intra-party agreement.

(ii) I am *not* a party to the CHONS intra-party contract, nor have I had sight of it. I am relying on communications with two individuals who *are* parties to the contract. My *understanding at time of writing* is that the contract remains in place and that CHONS is *not* at the point of legal dissolution. I *understand* Farallon is not the beneficial owner of all the 118m shares remaining within CHONS. The majority of the 118m shares? Certainly. But *not* all 118m shares. I *understand* the balance of the debt owed by GB (& associates) to Farallon is *very, very close* to being repaid. Accordingly, I agree with poohbear1’s correction contained within post #18377, that the latest 1% tranche of shares sold were likely “credit shares” and not equity shares.

Both parties confirmed the GB founders’nR17;funders are still well underwater on their initial investment. Both stated that amongst their cohort of investors, all are following the empirical improvement in the PANR investment case and that they anticipate their cohort continuing to support PANR going forward. Indeed some individuals, like poohbear1 appears to have done, have rather cleverly IMHO elected to invest in PANR since the merger in January 2019. I say good luck to all of them and I hope their long, convoluted journey ends in a massive success story.

[alaric7] 24/10/2021 16:52

yes really johnswan. always happy to read scot's considered fact based and ego-free analysis (that includes his informed guesswork). don't think he's ever claimed to know something that's not knowable and he is always meticulous in indicating guesswork. in the example you quote, he says 'more likely'. discussion of the facts and informed guesswork are what these boards are about, particularly in situations as here, where it seems unlikely that Farallon are going to show their hand other than through regulated announcements. from these we can at least ascertain that Farallon have significantly slowed down their selling.

[forwood] 24/10/2021 14:30

I'm happy to have some informed insight into this, as F selling will probably continue to impact the share price Thursday, someone was obviously selling. Friday, not!

My understanding is that a month or so ago F was persuaded to change the frequency of selling in order to allow the share price to improve. That has happened. Poohbear suggests in 18377 that the debt is now repaid but others suggest F is now selling equity shares.

It would be good to know the actual position or at least, the best informed guess!

[michaelsadvfn] 24/10/2021 13:22

Are you always so pedantic johnswan?

It did in fact appear ‘likely’ that Farallon had ceased their selling but now we know that wasn’t the case. So what?

[johnswan193] 24/10/2021 11:25

Really? How many times this year did Scot make suggestion that Farallon had stopped, only for another TR-1 notification to be received within days that proves otherwise?

E.g. from Scot one day prior to most recent notification:

“With each passing day it appears *more* likely Farallon has indeed ceased their selling”.

[alaric7] 24/10/2021 09:43

am sure i speak for many here, johnswan,when i say we're looking forward to reading Scot's promised response to Wimborne etc above.

[johnswan193] 23/10/2021 22:50

Please, no more posts speculating on Farallon’s intentions. It has been done to death and the big mouths claiming to know more than everybody else have been repeatedly proved wrong throughout.

[dhb368] 23/10/2021 15:16

Thanks for sharing poohbear1

[bit coin] 23/10/2021 10:58

Lots happened in past week, Fkers went below 17 % , Otto cleared the decks partially, No appeal planned by CP leaving PANR as a possible replacement investment, chart turned up again finishing week at a level possibly ready for breakout aimho, so quite likely news next week bwtfdik!

[scot126] 23/10/2021 10:54

Hi wimborne1 and OfficerDigby - I'm a bit tied up today but I'll try to respond to your posts above at some point over the weekend. However, to allay any concerns you may have, any risks you may perceive concerning Farallon have self-evidently decreased throughout 2021 just as the fundamentals have improved (due to Talitha-A and the purchase of the Theta West leases). Something to monitor and to be aware of but *not* IMO something to be worried about. More to follow.

[wimborne1] 23/10/2021 10:22

Having invested in PANR relatively recently, I struggle to understand the full picture of Farralon's ongoing involvement and share divestment. Now that they have reached the 17% level and, according to the earlier post, have repaid the Great Bear debt, could someone please point me to a clear explanation of their likely ongoing involvement?

Many thanks in anticipation.

[nigoil] 23/10/2021 09:39

Oh dear Mr forwood is feeling sorry for himself this morning! We're with InToTheWild, excellent post, sums it up perfectly! ... :-)

[officerdigby] 23/10/2021 09:39

OH thats interesting poohbear. You guys get the TAX credit.

I was wondering where that went! Makes sense.

I did read some of Scots posts (on the Farr/GB story) at a certain point. Didn't clearly follow everything.
Just that Farralon didn't get the tax credit expected so had GB over a barrel hence shares and now sell to get cash back - I thought at much profit. Thought they had also recently made away with the returning tax credits in a bag marked SWAG!...

The concert party aspect had clearly escaped my understanding.

Anyone care to point me back at the relevant Scott post?

From the outside (for those not in the know) it always did look like a massive overhang. Perhaps not so big after all.

[poohbear1] 23/10/2021 09:09

My understanding and what I've been communicated as a long term Great Bear investor is that the recent sales of shares by Farallon were credit related. The debt is now fully paid and we will receive the rump of the shares plus the tax credit. It doesn't look like Farallon have been selling their equity shares which is obviously good news

[forwood] 23/10/2021 03:02

POS and other detractors - I think you should consider what prompted that post. Comparing my approach to reading tea leaves, expressing boredom and a desire not to see it at all, do you think that is a civil and courteous response?

It's basically, let's have a go at forwood and then criticise his response regardless.