On The Beach Share Discussion Threads

[hamhamham1] 23/5/2024 13:20

I am kicking myself for selling CMCX sub 2 quid, when got in at 90p. But that's my doubling rule. Doh.
SPT worked OK.
I still have visions of RR, bought sub 70. Sold sub 200p as well.
Hence my rise till 2.x-3x approach now on some which can do it.
But these could all be fisherman's tales, so ignore my ramblings. And I have had a couple of plonkers.

[hamhamham1] 23/5/2024 09:34

2 yrs. Some move quick and some move slow. Some may get 2.5x and some 1.5x - but if can get an av of 2x I will be over the moon.
But if market heads south and have to sit on them for longer. Then that's just the way it is.There are no guarantees in life.
I will no doubt tweek along the way and react if some rise quickly and redistribute amongst the remaining or add other new companies.
And there is always a downside risk to my capital. I get that.

[alotto] 23/5/2024 09:31

With what time frame

[hamhamham1] 23/5/2024 09:28

ps, thse are my current hopefull doubles...

ABDN, BT.A, BRBY, CBG, COST, CRST, DOCS, FDM, FSJ, HFD, IGR, MARS, OTB, PSN, RCH, RNK, TPK, WOSG.

[hamhamham1] 23/5/2024 09:20

I find the build up to change of govs is the uncertain time (and hopefully this will be offset by pending interest rate drops). Once a clear winner is decided then markets are happy. ie uncertainty has been removed, and especially in UK a new broom with new ideas will move markets up for a honeymoon period, maybe 2 yrs. Then after that peeps want to see initial results, that's a bit harder maybe.
So I am fully signed up to the roaring 20s idea, I will hopefully ride it for a couple of years, then get off and park money in deposit account and settle for a minimal return until something breaks, it will, it always does.
I just want to make hay while the sun shines over next couple of years hopefully, target is 2x my overal portfolio value.
GLA - and good luck me ;)

If you want to grow your money, buy stocks, with bonds, debt, etc you are just hoping to get your original stake back, with a little money in your pocket along the way for your trouble.
So I think there will be a lot more coming into stocks over next year or two, anyway, what do I know? :)

[adamb1978] 23/5/2024 08:58

Change of governments generally causes uncertainty, which isnt good, however I do very strongly agree with you ham about interest rates.

[hamhamham1] 23/5/2024 08:49

With interest rates going down and the clean sweep and optimism of many new govs around the world, hopefully we in for a good couple of years.
GLA

[hamhamham1] 23/5/2024 08:46

Once Labour get in, I think the UK banks are going to get a hefty windfall tax. Lloyds alone made £7.5bn profit before tax last year.
The gov will want the banks, now they making loads, to take a little pain in return for the support they got back in 2009.
I think £5-10bn will be tapped from the banks to pay for some of Starmers new policies.

And don't rule out the supermarkets getting the same treatment ;)

[hamhamham1] 23/5/2024 07:34

Yeah, I think u maybe right Adam.
Instead of 20th June, BOE now could be 1st Aug (only 6 weeks delay - no biggie).
Whilst that is a delay, I kinda like the thought of it, it will give markets nice staggered rises. Rather than all at once and then a long void.

If ECB goes in 6th June. Then BOE on 1st Aug. Then September (18th) will be FED and/or secondary from ECB (12th). Then maybe every few months one or the other central banks will chip away a bit more (eg BOE 7th Nov).

In regards to not looking political, you could say delaying it could also be seen as political. Its more a case of slightly disappointing 2.3% rather than expected 2.1% IMO.

But central banks need to be cutting soon, leaving it too late to cut is as bad ad leaving it too late to rise (as they did).
It will cut off growth and growth is the only thing that's gonna get the world back its feet.

[adamb1978] 22/5/2024 17:33

Think its rules out June as the BoE wont want to look political

[zam1] 22/5/2024 17:16

Definitely chance of June cut as looks like Rishi will hold elections 4th July

[hamhamham1] 22/5/2024 07:02

2.3%.BoE maybe 40% chance of June cut now (market was hoping for 2.1%).
Personally, I see BoE following the ECB in June regardless, Europe is not in the same strong position as the US.

[hamhamham1] 22/5/2024 06:24

Hopefully markets gonna get a broad tick up with surprisingly low inflation read today at 7am.
It's likely going to be 2.x%, imagine what markets do if we get 1.x% :0
IMO, there is a real chance of a market meltup over next few months if ECB and BoE both drop interest rates, ECB defo stating in June and BoE maybe 60% chance?

[hamhamham1] 20/5/2024 16:15

The market giveth,
And the market taketh away :)

[sahina123] 20/5/2024 15:31

What a day.5 percent up in the first hour and now back to where it was on friday

[hamhamham1] 20/5/2024 08:43

It's still pretty cheap IMO.
I don't think the boat missed until nearer 2 quid?

[undervaluedassets] 20/5/2024 08:38

Cannot believe how the seasonal element was so misunderstood in the reaction to recent results.

I think that the day traders and the short termers have now gone. And those with more than 2 brains cells are quietly accumulating.

Last results bested expectations.

As I said before I am with the former CEO who now owns 7% of the equity.

Who should know better than he how things are going.

[jm65] 20/5/2024 08:10

Certainly sounds like it.
Might have missed the boat, looks like the dust may have settled and it's started recovering this morning.

[johndoe23] 20/5/2024 08:03

Alotto is short

[milliecusto] 20/5/2024 08:00

Have you seen the price Uk holidays, great article in Daily Mail last week on people turning there back on Uk holidays due to high price , compared to what they can get abroad

[adamb1978] 19/5/2024 21:43

Alotto

"If they miss" - what signs are there of that? They're growing strongly and already have excellent visibility of the year. We're in mid May so OTB will have pretty clear visibility on where the year will come out given the bookings already.

"marketing and administrative expenses are a huge drag" - well, every company would prefer not to have them but if you dont spend on marketing then sales will be weak and, re admin, I'm afriad not many people will work for free.

Anything else? In the last couple days you've come up with seasonality, cashflow, weather, ability to hit this years' estimates, marketing and admin costs...

Adam

[hamhamham1] 19/5/2024 19:53

And a real left field punt is FSJ

[kemche] 19/5/2024 19:36

14.3p is the eps estimate the last time I checked.

[hamhamham1] 19/5/2024 19:33

Another one I find cheap is Halfords, plus a few others.
Think that'll defo get taken out in next 2 yrs.

[hamhamham1] 19/5/2024 19:22

A PE or 15-20 if a £30m adjusted pbt would equate to a market cap of £450m-£600m.
Which would equate to share price of 270p-360p?
Yes, depends on adjustments I guess.
Your rounding down matches your negative posts.
But hey, time will tell. GLA.