On The Beach Share Discussion Threads

[bigbigdave] 08/1/2024 15:52

JET2 bookings strong, would imagine same here.

[blazerboy1] 05/1/2024 00:08

Just been seeing OTB adds on TV
Management are going for another push upwards before next set of numbers

[jm65] 04/1/2024 17:00

Big Buys going through after the Bell.

[alotto] 03/1/2024 20:08

I am under the impression that competitors of the likes of TUI, Expedia, LoveHolidays, etc. are doing more advertising than OTB...

[alotto] 29/12/2023 11:54

Thanks JM65

[jm65] 29/12/2023 11:19

alotto...

Christmas Eve Shoppers footfall 20.6% lower than in 2022...
Boxing Day Shoppers footfall 1.4% higher than in 2022...

[alotto] 29/12/2023 09:35

I'm surprised people cut on clothes, malls were full in the lead up to Christmas, not to mention boxing day sales

[eeza] 29/12/2023 09:17

"Consumers also saved for getaways, with spending on trips booked via travel agents up by 10.4%, while airlines enjoyed a 30.8% surge."

[jm65] 28/12/2023 13:48

alotto...

Looks like there's been a Trading Update at the AGM every year for the last 3 years even though, as you say, it's quite soon after the preliminary results announcement.
Next AGM is 26/1/24.
Time to load up now during this pause for breath???

[adamb1978] 28/12/2023 13:34

"run out of steam" - well, its up over 50% in less than a month so the rise had to slow down at some point!

Still don't think its reached even fair value, however there will naturally be fewer buyers at a prce which is 50% higher given:
- there's less of a delta between market price and wherever you think fair value is
- people are always more sceptical about buying something which has gone on that journey

Personally I'm not selling though given that I believe there's very decent upside from here on a couple year basis

[alotto] 28/12/2023 13:22

More like end of Feb, the last trading update was given quite recently actually

[jm65] 28/12/2023 12:56

Next update @ AGM, late Jan ?

[alotto] 28/12/2023 12:49

OTB has run out of steam in the run up to Christmas and after.

[bigbigdave] 24/12/2023 07:54

On The Beach is the place to be
Brits are still showing their appetite for a break, but shares in the holiday company have further to go
If you are reading this on a Christmas break somewhere warm, you will understand the appeal of On The Beach, the Manchester-based online package-holiday business. Investors back here in the British drizzle should consider it, too.

Shares in On The Beach are up 14 per cent this year, trading at just over 170p, as the travel business has shown that demand for a bargain break remains high among post-pandemic Brits, even amid the cost of living crisis.

Results for the year to September 30 showed record revenues, up almost a fifth at £170 million, as pre-tax profit almost doubled to £24 million. A pricey marketing push into the premium long-haul market — to the likes of Dubai and the Maldives — appears to be paying off, as does the offer of free access to airport lounges and fast-track security lanes on four and five-star holidays. But the total transaction value (TTV) of On The Beach’s sales was up across the board. There was a 32 per cent lift for its stalwart three-star breaks to destinations such as the Canary Islands and Corfu, and a 74 per cent increase in demand for long-haul. Momentum is continuing: On The Beach’s chief executive, Shaun Morton, has said that winter bookings are up 34 per cent on last year.
But while investors have clearly spotted the sunnier outlook, the shares have further to go. On The Beach is still trading 50 per cent lower than the £5-£6 level seen before the pandemic, and has a valuation of nine times forward earnings, down from a five-year average of 20 times. The firm has announced the return of the dividend next year following a pandemic-imposed pause, while it is cash generative and now debt-free with cash reserves above £75 million.

Investors’ worries about a heavy marketing spend to build the brand in the luxury travel market have also been allayed: marketing costs fell from an elevated 45 per cent to 38 per cent of core UK revenues.
There are decent expansion opportunities for On The Beach, which currently has only a 5 per cent share of Britain’s premium travel sector and a 2 per cent market share in long haul. Shore Capital said that the company is “walking on sunshine”. Katie Cousins, an analyst at the broker, is cautious about the very competitive travel industry, but still reckons a £2.20 share price would provide fair value, pointing out that the company is enjoying “strengthening tailwinds into 2024”, with record forward bookings and “robust” demand.

[mirabeau] 24/12/2023 07:51

tipped in Sunday Times

[alotto] 21/12/2023 21:07

Great results from Carnival. The industry seems to be extremely healthy at the moment.

[adamb1978] 21/12/2023 13:26

Hi Castleford

The market will value OTB on either a P/E or EV/EBITDA basis.

NAV based valuations are more applicable for mining or oil/gas companies, or sometimes companies which distressed/value-recovery plays.

DCFs are theoretical in nature and represent the fundamental value of the company. Generally a DCF valuation will be in excess of P/E or EV/EBITDA valuations as the there is a certain amount of risk of achieving that fundamental DCF value. For some companies which are very much en vogue and get some excitement they might trade in excess of DCF but for 90% of the market that won't be the case.

Adam

[alotto] 21/12/2023 12:27

Tiger I can answer to that, I value them on interest discounted future return. You can pay a lot based on NAV and the Company may not produce earnings for the foreseeable future. Not a great deal.

[castleford tiger] 21/12/2023 11:33

adam

so how do you value it then?

Having bought and sold 11 real companies i tend to disagree
tiger

[alotto] 21/12/2023 09:55

I ignore book value, NAV figures etc. Those figures aren't indicative of the company's potential to generate future earnings.

[adamb1978] 20/12/2023 20:15

This sort of company isnt valued on a P/NAV basis!

[castleford tiger] 20/12/2023 18:07

no i can see that but equity only grew 7 million last year.
market cap is twice NAV.

Jet 2 if it makes eps of 200p is only on 6.5x historic earnings.

But this is having a great run and looks likely to go higher

[alotto] 20/12/2023 12:37

Tiger it made 24 million adjusted PBT this year with bookings for next year significantly ahead of last year. Besides, it may not even need to hit 50 mln PBT to double in valuation if you factor in that the company is cash positive.

[castleford tiger] 20/12/2023 11:43

i think 50m pbt is dreamland .

tiger