On The Beach Share Discussion Threads

[mirabeau] 24/12/2023 07:51

tipped in Sunday Times

[alotto] 21/12/2023 21:07

Great results from Carnival. The industry seems to be extremely healthy at the moment.

[adamb1978] 21/12/2023 13:26

Hi Castleford

The market will value OTB on either a P/E or EV/EBITDA basis.

NAV based valuations are more applicable for mining or oil/gas companies, or sometimes companies which distressed/value-recovery plays.

DCFs are theoretical in nature and represent the fundamental value of the company. Generally a DCF valuation will be in excess of P/E or EV/EBITDA valuations as the there is a certain amount of risk of achieving that fundamental DCF value. For some companies which are very much en vogue and get some excitement they might trade in excess of DCF but for 90% of the market that won't be the case.

Adam

[alotto] 21/12/2023 12:27

Tiger I can answer to that, I value them on interest discounted future return. You can pay a lot based on NAV and the Company may not produce earnings for the foreseeable future. Not a great deal.

[castleford tiger] 21/12/2023 11:33

adam

so how do you value it then?

Having bought and sold 11 real companies i tend to disagree
tiger

[alotto] 21/12/2023 09:55

I ignore book value, NAV figures etc. Those figures aren't indicative of the company's potential to generate future earnings.

[adamb1978] 20/12/2023 20:15

This sort of company isnt valued on a P/NAV basis!

[castleford tiger] 20/12/2023 18:07

no i can see that but equity only grew 7 million last year.
market cap is twice NAV.

Jet 2 if it makes eps of 200p is only on 6.5x historic earnings.

But this is having a great run and looks likely to go higher

[alotto] 20/12/2023 12:37

Tiger it made 24 million adjusted PBT this year with bookings for next year significantly ahead of last year. Besides, it may not even need to hit 50 mln PBT to double in valuation if you factor in that the company is cash positive.

[castleford tiger] 20/12/2023 11:43

i think 50m pbt is dreamland .

tiger

[alotto] 19/12/2023 12:09

It Will double. We could reach 50 million pbt in 2-3 years.

[wburton619] 19/12/2023 10:04

Only been in about 4 weeks I posted in here at the time at 117p. 2 days before the update. Glad to hold till 250 onwards. I think in 12 months we could see 300-350 if I can hold that long. Not a better stock out there imo

[highlands] 18/12/2023 20:27

Previously bought around 120p (following substantial director buy) and sold around 180p.

[highlands] 18/12/2023 20:25

I paid just under 96p for mine beginning of September

[blueball] 18/12/2023 15:52

Bought these @100p in August happy to hold.

[simmsc] 14/12/2023 21:34

Junk rallied more than quality today, generally speaking. Quite normal given past sentiment and current conditions.

[alotto] 14/12/2023 10:00

Today is a very good day indeed. Not sure about otb

[highlands] 14/12/2023 09:22

All my holdings are significantly up today. I'm not sure why OTB hasn't followed suit.

[aishah] 13/12/2023 20:48

That article was from 2019. Ignore. However they are firing on all cylinders at the moment, so 200p achievable in due course imo

[alotto] 13/12/2023 20:46

A target of 560p implies net profits of about 60-80 million pounds, which is not that unlikely in 2-3 years. If that's the case I'd be happy to wait that for a 200% return, not easy to find a return like that

[adamb1978] 13/12/2023 20:09

If you believed that they got margins back to 30% levels, then based off £230m turnover then its around 33p EPS so 15x PE.

Problem with that is really the time frame as target prices are often next 12 months

[njones01] 13/12/2023 19:44

We would all take 300p tomorrow. Librium target is insane... would love to believe it, but it needs a following wind and then some! Great rise since 100p, which to be honest was an easy prediction... what is needed to make it fly from here? Any views?

[ajmace] 13/12/2023 14:53

Amazing bounce back today.something is obviously about to happen Hold tight!

[blueball] 12/12/2023 11:15

Peel Hunt 300p target is more realistic.