On The Beach Share Discussion Threads

[alotto] 19/5/2024 18:48

£30 mln on adjusted basis may help with a re-rating. 250p would give a PE of 15-20, depending on how you do the maths, again, on adjusted basis though. If they miss, the share price should hold these levels, but may languish for a number of quarters. The marker held great hopes prior to results day but it was disappointed by the HY, maybe it was expecting more. I was hoping for more too, I don’t want to sound like a broken record but marketing and administrative expenses are a huge drag.

[hamhamham1] 19/5/2024 18:19

Low/No debt companies with growing revenues and making profits will prosper IMO with the upcoming interest rate drops.

[hamhamham1] 19/5/2024 18:04

Altto, they're quoting the pbt based upon this from the January update...

2 Based on company compiled consensus ("Consensus") from ten contributing analysts. Consensus FY24E Adjusted PBT is £30.0m.

[halfpenny] 19/5/2024 14:39

FLY to the SUN this Summer and book before availability gets further away.

Enjoy the On the Beach Experience with Ryan Air, Easyjet and many others...

1. Plenty of Sun and warm Sea
2. Great Culture
3. Great food experiences
4. Great prices available
5. Plenty of Smiling faces as many have Fun.
6. Plus many more reasons to Fly Away...

Future Brighter every day as Holidays Abroad Increases.

[halfpenny] 19/5/2024 14:30

The Future is getting brighter as many have already booked holidays ahead of Term in a few weeks time....

The recent UK Rain will change UK Holiday Demand below Analyst Predictions.

Would you Risk a Holiday in the UK with Risks..

1. Further Rain
2. Colder days
3. No Guarantees with Disappointed Families.
4. Expensive UK Holidays.
5. Traffic jams increase with delays.

A Change is as good as a rest so Fly Away on Fantastic Sun Or Cultural Experience Holiday for the family.

[alotto] 19/5/2024 14:13

The question is whether the earnings are sustainable or if the holiday frenzy will return to the pre pandemic activity. If people feel the pitch of inflation and if Britain gets a decent summer, people may go back to enjoy staycations again.
Not to mention other risks that other people have highlighted, market competition, high admin cost, etc.
OTB needs to deliver goo results and give a even more solid forecast for next year

[halfpenny] 19/5/2024 14:12

Future getting brighter as Market for Holidays improve and demand shoots up with Revenue Improving beyond Analyst Expectations.

Future Brighter so Get on the Train to Gain...

[its the oxman] 19/5/2024 13:52

Price for everything though and market is assuming the worst it seems. And what can be expected from a cyclical holiday company with seasonal bookings etc. Being asset light online is generally a good thing and if they do indeed make good money over the summer the market could be a lot kinder to us.

[bookbroker] 19/5/2024 11:51

Very poor company as regards quality of earnings, a typical holiday company with few tangible assets apart from several domain names, wafer thin margins makes it very vulnerable to competitive pressures.

[alotto] 19/5/2024 10:59

I bought shares after the CEO purchase. I bought at 105p and sold at 160p, after the peak around 180p.
I thought 105 was a great value and I was hoping to see OTB trading around 300p as a fair value. I'm not so convinced OTB will deliver at least £40-50 mln PBT in the FY to justify such a rerating. So yes you're right, I'm not so upbeat as I used to be.
I will wait for the next TU then I may change my views.
In the last trading update they said otb will deliver profits 'in line with current consensus expectations'.. and that is..?? I cant find the figure anywhere, nor who are the people/institutions forming the consensus.

[hamhamham1] 19/5/2024 08:52

Alotto. You used to own shares here and be quite positive about them.
Did you sell out and now post negative thoughts to justify your exit?
Be honest ;)
Just asking, nothing malicious.
This is going to be a record revenue year here, so the company says.

[alotto] 18/5/2024 11:51

Thanks Adam. So the cash on the balance sheet is working capital and OTB can't release it as a dividend, unless they want to get into debt. The latter should be considered as an option imo. Interest on debt (4/5/6%?) is smaller than the reurn an investor can make if the capital is released as a dividend. If the management considers the company itself more profitable than the interest paid on debt they should consider to implement a buyback program (50-100 mln). That will help in future paying a dividend to shareholders as the dividend would be distributed among a smaller number of shares in issue.
Many companies (e.g., utilities) have a huge debt, they can service it and pay a good dividend. But their income is very reliable. Maybe OTB cannot rely on a consistent income in order to operate a similar financial model without a great risk to go broke (e.g., the next pandemic(s), like Bill Gates and other experts expect more frequent waves of global pandemics in the near future, of course I hope they are worng from a human and economic standpoint).

[adamb1978] 18/5/2024 10:26

Alotto

The cash isn't held in 'Treasury'. Its held in Trust. Note 14 to the interims explains this: "Trust accounts are restricted cash held separately and only accessible once the Trust rules are met as approved by our Trustees and the Civil Aviation Authority, this is at the point the customer has travelled or the booking is cancelled and refunded."

All that cash held in trust isn't the company's money until the customer has travelled. It safeguards the money for the customer in case the operator goes bust.

If you think about their financial year, the first half of it (Oct to March) the company is running the business, spending money on marketing, paying suppliers of components of holidays (airlines, hotels and bits which they directly control) but most of those holidays arent taken in that half year period. They're taken in the following summer. But in that half year period, customers are required to make payments in advance to secure those holidays - that cash goes into a trust account and as per above, is only released to the company once the customer has travelled.

Then in the second half of the year (Apr to Sept) - when people take the holidays - the cash gets released from the trust account so in that period the company is receiving more cash that it spends. That's why you'll always see low net cash figures as at Mar 31st and high net cash figures at Sept and if you look back at prior financial years for OTB, and other holiday companies too, you'll see big working cap outflows in H1 but offsetting inflows in H2...but they net to around 0.

Adam

[ianio5691] 18/5/2024 09:45

If you can't understand such basis seasonal cash flow principles- Should you really be investing in shares Allotto???

[alotto] 18/5/2024 09:25

Adam so i may be missing the point when you say:

As at 31 March 2024 Group cash (excluding cash held in trust which is ringfenced and not factored into the going concern assessment) was £7.7m (31 March 2023: £9.6m, 30 September 2023: £75.8m).

If the cash held in treasury is not on the balance sheet how come the cash on the balance sheet went from 75mln in September 23 to 7.7 in March 24? Where has the cash gone?

[adamb1978] 18/5/2024 08:36

Alotto - again you're missing the point. The cash held in trust is not on the balance sheet. There is no corresponding liability to go down as its not on the asset side.

[halfpenny] 18/5/2024 08:29

Ryan Air are smart so they have an agreement with them to see how the partnership works before making a firm offer to buy the Company.

EZJ are also moving into the same space!!
Interesting times ahead.

Every business should review their Value Chain to Identify further Opportunities for Creating Additional Value.
Ryan Air Buying them is an Obvious move in Creating Value and further Wealth across their Value Chain.

Future getting Brighter as Value Increases.

[alotto] 17/5/2024 22:15

If that's the case, you would expect current liabilities to go down just as much as the cash.
Anyways...
You should not consider cash held in treasury as company cash, as it can't be invested or distributed as a dividend.
The 0.6 - 0.7% dividend is cute for a cash generative company.
Usually you can tell if a company is undervalued if the dividend is unusually high.

[adamb1978] 17/5/2024 21:52

jeez - you again!

Read previous comments about seasonality. Company spends cash in H1 and then receives cash back in H2. All that cash coming in in H2 is held in the trust account.

Hence the cash movement you say.

[alotto] 17/5/2024 21:36

As at 31 March 2024 Group cash (excluding cash held in trust which is ringfenced and not factored into the going concern assessment) was £7.7m (31 March 2023: £9.6m, 30 September 2023: £75.8m).
How did we go from 75 to 7 million pounds in cash at hand?

[adamb1978] 17/5/2024 21:19

Just had a look at the cash held on trust given that it is directly linked with customer bookings:

Mar-23 cash held on trust: £137m
...and that as a % of H2 revenue: 141%

Mar-24 cash held on trust: £196m
H2 revenue implied by market forecasts: £118m
so cash on trust at March as % of H2 revenue: 166%

So trying to think through reasons why the cash held on trust is so much higher, unless market forecasts are too low.

SOme could be simple variance - random differences. That might be a few % only though.

Is there any reason why OTB would have needed customers to pay more upfront? Or are market forecasts quite a bit off?
Thanks

[adamb1978] 17/5/2024 08:41

Agreed hamhamham - I bought a few more in teh last week too

[hamhamham1] 17/5/2024 08:38

Bought some more today.
The results were very misunderstood by the market.
Winter for any travel or airline is never the profitable time.
But at least here made a small profit.
And they announced its going to be a record year here.
Then as the summer progresses. Market catches on and by the end of summer up at least 80% from here.
... and repeat ;)

[halfpenny] 16/5/2024 22:30

Ryan Air deal will be transformative As before they were challenging each other now they are a Team with the same goals so its a Success as revenues will increase. A Win Win for both Companies as the CEO stated on Ian King...

At these levels they are a Takeover Target with Suitors evaluating at these levels...

Future Getting Brighter...as the Temperatures Rise so will the Value Increase.