On The Beach Share Discussion Threads

[mrnumpty] 26/7/2024 06:12

Correction . Obviously it should have been “ OTB HAS a large cash pile “ . The Questor foresees an improvement in the broader economy as increasing demand for Jet2 , which evidently also applies to OTB .

[mrnumpty] 26/7/2024 05:52

Today’s Telegraph has a large investment article on page 23 , in the “ Questor “ column , about Jet2 . Although the column only rates Jet2 as a “ hold “ , this is after the share has more than doubled since being originally tipped as a “ buy “ , but Questor nonetheless sees a further increase in the share price . Although Jet2’s move in to the package holiday segment is competing with OTB , most of the positive comment about the future prospects for Jet2 apply to OTB . Furthermore , whereas Jet2 carries net debt of £ 124 million ( against a mkt cap of £ 2.9 billion ) , OTB had a large cash pile .

[adamb1978] 24/7/2024 08:41

Perhaps expectations wee misaligned or even Ryanair had their own internal price expectations wrong?I actually didn't think their TU was too bad, or certainly wasn't wholly negativeOTB valuation is hugely undemanding and probably only get minimal profits from the Ryanair arrangement too

[alotto] 24/7/2024 08:13

Interesting... Very conflicting with Ryanair. I'm not sure how Ryanair has pricing pressure. They are one of the cheapest operators and could bump up prices if they need to.

[paleje] 24/7/2024 07:28

Easyjet issued a trading statement this morning and it's very positive quite different from Ryanair's missive which scared the sector earlier this week. They are having a booming summer with outlook remaining strong and package holidays 42% up on last year.


CEO comment:-

"Our strong performance in the quarter has been driven by more customers choosing easyJet for our unrivalled network of destinations and value for money. This result was achieved despite Easter falling into March this year, demonstrating the continued importance of travel and this means we remain on track to deliver another record-breaking summer, taking us a step closer to our medium term targets."

[adamb1978] 22/7/2024 11:50

Hi boonkoh

re Ryanair: Yes, I read their statement and it seemed far more benign to me that the market reaction and press comment about it. I dont hold them so only scanned the announcement, but it seem far from awful.

In terms of OTB, my understanding was that the commercial relationship was more to do with OTB having easier/greater access to Ryanair seats and therefore, to your point, wasnt designed to be a huge money spinner for OTB.

The valuation here remains hugely undemanding....

Adam

[boonkoh] 22/7/2024 11:32

Exactly this. Other investors panic selling OTB on the back of Ryanair's bad news today.Q1 (Apr-Jun) volumes up 10%, rev per passenger down -10%.This is great news for OTB as means more volumes. Plus they don't make much from the flight ££ anyways, all the margin comes from the hotel ££. So the key is volume, and the hotel prices, not flight prices.Ryanair outlook "second quarter demand looks strong" indicating volume growth still there.(I hold in the Boon Fund)

[ianio5691] 22/7/2024 10:26

From OTB May update...

· As a result of these factors, and our new Ryanair partnership, we expect to deliver another record Summer.



· Board is confident in delivering FY24 profit in line with current consensus expectations.

[adamb1978] 22/7/2024 10:10

And Easyjet's last update in May was positive in terms of outlook too

[paleje] 22/7/2024 10:04

Yes but remember only a week or so back Ryanair reported their highest passenger numbers ever for June, so the hit is to margin not volume of travellers. We should be relatively unscathed by it imo.

[boonkoh] 19/7/2024 10:37

Surprised it's up today. Given all the flight disruptions being reported, and today is meant to be the UK's busiest flying day this year...But there would at least be compensation from airlines. Don't think they can get out of paying for this, as the airlines affected didn't build in resilience to their systems / chose Microsoft...

[johndoe23] 11/7/2024 15:27

At last some movement up

[boonkoh] 11/7/2024 11:20

Because a good trading update will generate media coverage and also attract more investors to look at OTB.If you haven't noticed, it's quite a thinly traded share.Share prices don't automatically go up... They need more buying demand. Good newsflow helps that.

[alotto] 09/7/2024 15:52

Boon Why do you need a trading update to boost the share price if it is so obvious that money are coming in hand over fist? Do you suspect margins could be thin?

[boonkoh] 09/7/2024 12:55

All the high frequency indicators are strong.- travel weekly anecdotal trading snippets from travel agents.- Barclays monthly spending reports- airport passenger volume stats- lower strikes and disruptions in airports vs last year- lack of catastrophe events in main destinations (natural disaster, safety, etc)We won't get a TU though until Aug/Sep, even if trading is ahead of expectations. Because anything could happen... one volcano could spoil everything...

[its the oxman] 05/7/2024 15:56

Just got back from Turkey and weather is still bloody awful here, got to be helping OTB.

[paleje] 02/7/2024 15:16

Ryanair have reported June traffic exceeding their all time high.

[paleje] 28/6/2024 15:54

I think Adam and biddy are right it's always been possible to book the parts separately, we've done it for the past 25 years and it gets easier, but my brother who still has young kids when he just wants a week or two in the sun and he's not time rich, he takes a package, he's also had the odd problem from time to time, OTB on one occasion, and they were great fixing it couldn't do enough to help and upgraded his stay.

I think it will stay that way, people want convenience, they don't cook they buy meals in, they don't go and shop they do it online and someone else chooses for them and another person delivers, I think there will always be a call for all-in holiday shops of one sort or another. As for cost well it can work out cheaper if you're not too savvy and not everyone likes haggling terms.

One example we were on verge of booking a Portugal break nice place which we know, got one price from the owner then a price 14% cheaper from booking.com.

[biddy74] 28/6/2024 15:36

I book all my own stuff now however I am invested here. The actual driver to more people returning to packages was Covid. With a package you are protected in full for the holiday. Without you are at the mercy of individuals. For instance your accommodation doesn’t care your flight was cancelled. Hence for many packages are an attractive proposition.

[highlands] 28/6/2024 14:02

I used several packaged holidays in the past, and so did my friends, so I am just going by the fact that we all haven't for the past few years. Apart from trying to get the best for your buck, it is easier to plan and book your own holidays now than in the past. That is my opinion. Also, the packages are too restrictive.

[adamb1978] 28/6/2024 13:57

Some people have always planned and booked their own holidays, just as other people have always used operators etc. This isnt a new phenomenon. Different people go in different directions.

What makes you think there is going to be a material shift to people arranging their own holidays? I haven't read anything suggesting that

edit: you could re-write your post saying "if fewer" rather than "if more" and turn the rest of the sentence around the other way. But equally I havent seen any data suggesting that is happening either

[highlands] 28/6/2024 13:49

If more people start organising/planning their own holidays and book flights/accommodation/transport directly, it will impact companies like OTB, who are essentially doing the same thing and charging a premium and providing less flexibility.

[weaverbeever] 28/6/2024 10:32

That's what I do. lots of my friends don't. Different people like different things