On The Beach Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 16/5/2024 12:08

halfpenny "Ryan Air deal will be transformative"
Correct me if im wrong but the Ryan deal is not exclusive to OTB. Ryan are likely to have come out better in the deal as they appeared to pick the fight before agreeing the deal.
Long haul holidays have been historically difficult to sell profitable throughout the cycle and worst hit during a recession. UK short haul is increasingly competitive with EZJ and JET2 increasing capacity year after year.
This time may be different as long haul is becoming less adventurous as the world becomes easier to travel to and more mainstream.
The planned increase in capacity for short haul is a multi year thing as aircraft have a long lead time. IMO this can not be sustainable and profitable to expand year after year.
OTB may benefit if EZJ and JET2 struggle to sell extra capacity as the airlines are more likely to turn to agents to sell excess holidays at a cheaper price.
This scenario would hurt the sentiment of the whole sector initially but OTB could be a big winner, benefiting from excess capacity.
I think OTB shareholders should take past p/e numbers with a big pinch of salt. OTB were a disruptor online only travel agent growing rapidly justifying a high p/e. Now they are in a more competitive environment where strong brand names compete and there are low barriers to entry for low cost or specialist entrants.

[highlands] 16/5/2024 11:33

Easyjet are nicking customers from all other operators.Look at the 3m chart for Jet2 Holidays. It looks similar to On the Beach.

[adamb1978] 16/5/2024 11:12

Agreed paleje

[paleje] 16/5/2024 09:56

Yep, trouble is they could be nicking some OTB customers at the cheap n cheerful end. Might be part of the reason for only 1% growth y-o-y although I think the economy has more to do with that and it should start to pick up as confidence improves (assuming).

[adamb1978] 16/5/2024 07:56

Quick scan of the EZJ results this morning and the following jumped out:

"easyJet holidays expected to deliver >£170m PBT (>40% growth YoY)"

Sector doing very well

[halfpenny] 15/5/2024 21:46

Fantastic strategy and Looks like Ryan Air deal will be transformative as growth beats targets and revenue Increases.

At these Target levels now with a Strong Products, Services and Price becomes a Takeover Target.

Future getting brighter....

[zam1] 15/5/2024 17:45

On the Beach GroupOTBShare Price 7 Day 1 Year1.43 -2.3% 33.5% First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.003 (vs UK£0.029 loss in 1H 2023)First half 2024 results:EPS: UK£0.003 (up from UK£0.029 loss in 1H 2023).Revenue: UK£80.8m (up 10% from 1H 2023).Net income: UK£500.0k (up UK£5.30m from 1H 2023).Profit margin: 0.6% (up from net loss in 1H 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue.Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in the United Kingdom.Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 113% per year but the company's share price has fallen by 27% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings.

[bartyb] 15/5/2024 16:17

Tie up with Ryan Air will help a lot .

[sahina123] 15/5/2024 15:43

Over reaction i thinkUpdate was not that bad.and share price drop 22 percent since yesterday.

[gasheadmicky] 15/5/2024 15:35

Just got back in on this one at 134p, seems far too cheap. No rush for me at all which should see an easy bare minimum 20 percent gain at some point. Ex divi in a couple of weeks too which although only modest is welcome.

[welsheagle] 15/5/2024 14:57

Anybody got a forecast for OTB eps this year

[highlands] 15/5/2024 13:40

I first got into these after Simon Cooper's massive buy. Sold out at a substantial profit and got back in after his last buy and once again exited at a substantial profit. If share price goes down to 120p, I will get back in.

[johndoe23] 15/5/2024 13:40

Half of AIM should delist

[adamb1978] 15/5/2024 13:34

LSE vs US indices comes down to quality of companies. Lots of rubbish listed in London (and other European markets)

[kibes] 15/5/2024 12:32

The London Stock Market is such a stupid place to be at the moment nothing is ever allowed to go up. As soon as a share is up 10% it is sold down again the next day. The FTSE has gone essentially nowhere in 25 years while the DOW has quadrupled from 10,000 to 40,000. We are at the mercy of trading bots, excessive trading for small profits, hedge funds with too much money to throw into short positions and clueless spiv kid market makers. Money is taken out of genuine value stocks to bet on Bitcoin instead. We are left with second guessing what this mob will do next.

[disc0dave46] 15/5/2024 12:31

Lacklustre growth in non-premium is a concern IMO. That was their fundamental business model, whilst premium has greater margins there's also a lot of competition.

[paleje] 15/5/2024 12:05

Sells beget sells, the day trader rally followed by the rush to bag a profit and then the sellers just to be on the safe side, many of whom will not have read the interims just spooked by the response. EZJ's turn tomorrow I wonder if their numbers will add a bit of confidence.

[suffolkjim] 15/5/2024 11:46

I've been in and out of these, and am a fan. But treating people like idiots who have pointed out the fall, and claiming to be much cleverer than the market is a dangerous game.

[zam1] 15/5/2024 11:41

Wonder what will be support level 130?

[undervaluedassets] 15/5/2024 09:18

was looking at director purchases here.

Founder and former CEO Simon Cooper has been loading up the boat over the last couple of years

he bought 1.98 million shares on 19/08/22
he bought 340,000 more on 13/12/22
then he bought 44,000 shares on 21/12/22
His last purchase was an eye-popping 2.82 million share purchase on 11/08/23

He now owns 7.5% of the company.

(The timing of his purchase on 11/08/23 was particularly cute being not far from the low for the year)

I am inclined to align myself with the founder rather than the views on this board...

[weemonkey] 14/5/2024 21:29

copy of summary from Sharescope

"On the Beach Group PLC, down 12% at 148.00p, 12-month range 82.80p-178.00p. The Manchester-based travel agent swings to a pretax profit of GBP600,000 in its financial first half from a loss of GBP5.9 million a year before. The total transaction value of booked holidays increases 22% to GBP597.8 million from GBP491.7 million, as revenue rises 11% to GBP80.8 million from GBP72.9 million. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation nearly double to GBP8.1 million from GBP4.2 million. On The Beach says the overall outlook remains strong, underpinned "by an additional 7% airline capacity to beach leisure destinations for summer 2024". As a result, the company is confident in delivering full-year profit in line with consensus expectations. Chief Executive Officer Shaun Morton says: "Looking ahead, the summer '24 forward order TTV is currently 22% ahead of last year which, coupled with our continued trading momentum since the half year, means we are confident of delivering our biggest summer ever"

Only in the stockmarket...

What do they say about markets? in the short-term it's a voting machine in the long-term it's a weighing machine ..

we will see.

[undervaluedassets] 14/5/2024 16:47

What has been delineated here today is a growth story.

Although you would not think so to look at the share price today.

This is a very seasonal business (as are all the the travel companies, Tui jet2 et al... None are hugely profitable at Spring interims )

AdamB has highlighted what is important above.

Bookings and cash are all up as compared to this time last year. That is what is important.

This is a growth story

[kemche] 14/5/2024 15:39

"How are people not understanding the timing issue here."

Oh let him have his enjoyment for gawd's sake.

[adamb1978] 14/5/2024 15:36

Rimau

I think they don't want to. As you say, the cash is there but not accessible by OTB til the customer has travelled. A few extracts from the results:

"The cash flow profile of the Group is seasonal with approximately 50% of customers travelling in the period June to August and therefore in a normal year the cash flows (excluding any cash held in the Trust) experience a trough prior to June and a peak following this."

"Customer payments made to OTB in advance of travel are deposited in the Trust account. During the period, the Trust account balance has increased from £108.6m to £195.9m, which will unwind as customers travel over the summer months. As well as reflecting the continued growth of the business, this increase is a result of an increasing number of customers choosing to book their holidays earlier."

"As at 31 March 2024 Group cash (excluding cash held in trust which is ringfenced and not factored into the going concern assessment) was £7.7m (31 March 2023: £9.6m, 30 September 2023: £75.8m).

Cash received from customers for bookings that have not yet travelled is held in a ring-fenced trust account and is not withdrawn until the customer returns from their holiday. Cash held in trust at 31 March 2024 was £195.9m (31 March 2023: £137.2m, 30 September 2023: £108.6m)."

Adam