On The Beach Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave46] 14/5/2024 15:24

Peel Hunt have reduced their adjusted EBITDA forecast from £44.1m to £40.5m.So an 8% reduction.

[rimau1] 14/5/2024 15:24

The cash is in, 196m in the cash in trust line. This is customer deposits and when they take their holiday the cash goes into cash in bank. How are people not understanding the timing issue here.

[kemche] 14/5/2024 15:20

MacGregor - would you say there are too many red flags?

[undervaluedassets] 14/5/2024 15:00

Very tradery, short-term vibe on this board.

Bought a few more off the short-termers.

[sahina123] 14/5/2024 14:31

Will close over 155 i think

[paleje] 14/5/2024 14:27

IC's view a couple of hours ago:-

On the Beach expects record summer
A distribution agreement with Ryanair is a big deal for the business

May 14, 2024
by Christopher Akers


Dividend reinstated
Attractive valuation
On the Beach (OTB) lost over a tenth of its value after it published interim figures, as investors took fright at muted budget holiday growth of 1 per cent. Given that the shares jumped earlier in the week, however, the effect is largely neutral. Plus, growth is generally strong: the online beach holiday retailer achieved a record total transaction value (TTV) last year, and forecasts "another record summer" ahead as demand for its premium and long-haul travel options strengthen markedly.

The performance supported the reinstatement of the dividend. This was expected but still backs up the thesis that things are moving in the right direction for the company.

OTB:LSE
On The Beach Group PLC

1mth
Today change
-12.77%Price (GBP)
146.19
Group-wide TTV rose by 22 per cent to £598mn in the six months to 31 March, helped by a 15 per cent rise in customer bookings and higher prices. Summer forward order TTV is up by more than a fifth against last year. It seems that post-pandemic demand has normalised at higher levels.

TTV was up 41 per cent in the higher-margin, premium holiday division, helping it take 34 per cent of the business-to-consumer sales mix. Long-haul TTV soared by 61 per cent. On the other hand, cost of living pressures suppressed value holidays growth.

A distribution agreement with Ryanair (IE:RYA), signed in February, removes a drag factor on the valuation and ends a longstanding legal dispute between the two companies. On the Beach customers now have "free and fair access to Ryanair's seat supply", meaning they can benefit from additional flight capacity.

Elsewhere, the company announced a rejig of its smaller business-to-business (B2B) operations amid stiff competition. It will move to a single brand and platform under the Classic Collection moniker.

The shares trade at 11 times forward consensus earnings, a material discount to the five-year average of 20 times. We remain of the view that a rerating is in order. Buy.

[disc0dave46] 14/5/2024 14:02

Thanks Adam.
Edit: got it.
On last year as you say 100% earnings were H2.
So does look like 15p plus is possible.

[blazerboy1] 14/5/2024 13:59

Just took out a long Spread Bet

[sahina123] 14/5/2024 13:53

Way overdone.will bounce from this level

[gripfit] 14/5/2024 13:50

£1.30 imho

[blazerboy1] 14/5/2024 13:46

That’s the gap filled on yesterdays spike
Blue finish me thinks

[gripfit] 14/5/2024 13:43

They can say all they want .. the mkt will dictate.

[zam1] 14/5/2024 12:53

Investors chronicle today says buy re-rating is in order. Seems to be showing 0.90p dividend reinstated.

[adamb1978] 14/5/2024 12:09

DiscoNeed to look at seasonality of the top line. If you look at the last couple years seasonality at EBITDA or eps level you'll see around 100% of profits made in H2.Therefore need to look at revenue and its roughly 40-45% in H1 55%-60% in H2. Then because of the relatively same opex base from one half to the next you get a massive difference in profit.It looks to me like 14p is easily achievable eps this year.Adam

[london07] 14/5/2024 11:48

hxxps://www.ttgmedia.com/news/on-the-beach-poised-for-biggest-summer-ever-thanks-to-ryanair-deal-46333

[disc0dave46] 14/5/2024 11:44

Don't think you can compare to 2019, their pbt margin then was nearly 25%, it's now only 5%, costs clearly gone ballistic and there's 30% more shares in issue.That said I'm still trying to get my head around their adj eps H1 v H2 to see what outturn is likely to be....anyone?.

[dr biotech] 14/5/2024 11:43

Analysts at Peel Hunt (PEEL:AIM) were positive overall about the latest set of figures but expressed caution regarding the take up of the beach holiday retailer’s value offering.

‘Trading is strong and operating leverage is clearly coming through. The B2B channel is to be restructured to improve efficiency. The Ryanair partnership creates new opportunities,’; said the broker.

‘However, there is clearly some pressure on the consumer of value holidays and management’s guidance that the business is trading in line with consensus is clearly based on line of sight to the year-end. With that in mind we have lowered our full year 2022 estimated adjusted (earnings before interest taxation depreciation and amortisation) forecast to the mid-point range.’


Presumably meant 2024/5

[undervaluedassets] 14/5/2024 11:30

I dunno.

lot of nonsense talked on this board

Operating cashflow was minus £40 million at interims in 2019. It is just seasonal.

meanwhile turnover is 50% up since 2019 over the same period. and yet the shareprice was 450p back then .

It is just undervalued. The market will work it out in the end.

[adamb1978] 14/5/2024 11:11

Yes John. Lots of sectors face seasonality - retailers, holiday cos, hospitality, customer electronics and various others.

As an investor, you either accept that seasonality or move on to different sectors.

[johnkidd1] 14/5/2024 10:32

Why do people buy investments they don't understand and then when the obvious normal flows of cash occur they panic and sell. This is in fine recovery mode and good value.

[kemche] 14/5/2024 10:20

Always huge red flags in the first half followed by massive blue flags in the second half. Terrible state of affairs.

[kemche] 14/5/2024 10:18

MacGregor knows his stuff.

[undervaluedassets] 14/5/2024 10:17

huge seasonal outflows every interim..